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Alpha, yep a pretty reasoned assessment and coukndt agre more. The more i stand back and look at it, as a few of us have now said, is the whole debt / covenants / purchases and debt at the same time in a bad / getting worse economic climate. I an once again, not convinced TD has his finger in the pulse in all respects and especially in regard to the finance/re-finance. he screwed it up before (royally - a direct cash raise with dillution would have been better than the months / years it set back PMO and the SP), he can screw it up again and i want to see what he has planned before taking any substantial long here. I actually dont hink he knows what to do yet and that worries me even more. He allows PMO to get played and one day is is going to let it out a bit too far that he cant real it back in again. Still think he is the wrong man for the job and agree Alpha, its a risky play right now either short or long. Could be some good day trades ahead
Alfamale - spot on. I had an argument with someone on the Lloyds board the other day who said that their favourite economist had predicted a 1929 style recession and we should all listen.
However, they do this sort of thing to get news coverage and PR. Nobody in interested in a middle of the road opinion and it is no lose for the economist. They get free PR . If it is right they are hailed as a genius and if they are wrong they just ignore the fact that they ever said it. People have very short memories these days.
As you rightly say - nobody has a clue. The trick is just to be dispassionate and play each share as you find it.
Yep and BP starting to look interesting at these levels again . . lets see what tomorow brings. If the covid numbers in the US keep rising more tin hats might be needed. . . . regardless of what carrot top says
Well, I got back in here a few days back, but ended up selling out again, I thought it was gonna rise back up towards 54p, with Olivia momentum, but then it got slammed (shorters?) when that PMO bid article came out (maybe a bit setup was being played by the big boys) - you were very lucky that day, and that's the gamble you take when shorting (without guaranteed stops).
I'm not liking the current situation at all, and am all in cash. Can't be bothered shorting it at the moment, as there could well be some bidding action with Apache - who knows (note no official denials either!).
Refinancing is going to have to offer a few cherries to the others seeing as ARCM was paid off recently, so not liking that much, and in this climate any dilution (raising $200m?) probably won't be taken nicely by Mr Market, despite probably putting PMO in a better position with producing assets and more tax free production. Might be safer to stay out until the refinancing is done, then go from there, and see how the global situation looks then. Capital preservation, as you say, is paramount (at least trying to preserve it!).
It's hard to call it given everything that's going on. Seeing some articles predicting a "great summer" on the stock markets, and others saying it looks just like the 1929 depression is about to kick off... In other words nobody has a fooking clue!!
Pacha , sounds like you moved and made conscientious decisions based upon your own goals and knowledge - respect where its due. Lovepoundnotes advice is sound advice - top slicing.
I wish I'd done it with RDSB the other week too!! LOL :-)
Pacha - a good way to settle your nerves is to remove your original stake from your investment when you are in profit and then just leave in the profit. That way you are playing with "house money" and can only win rather than lose. Yes it cuts down the potential profits but it also eliminates any losses and I can promise you that missed profits hurt a lot less than big losses to your hard earned.
Gyms and pools to open soon, just announced, Brent is heading back to 43, Holders, dont panic, just see these comments and enjoy, soon they are gonna disappear in the shadows like always, they only come out when its a red day lol.
Yep I knew you were short. Some of your observations have alerted me to consider things I had never even heard of. And likewise with other users of the board. I think some of the issue for a lot of people, and particularly one I wrestled with, was/is that quite a few are holding from low entry prices so don't necessarily want to sell out and lose the low entry point that they will be possibly never be available again. In the end after missing the absolute high, watching it drop a little, then raise again, i decided that I would accept the lower overall return by selling part of my stake, in order to settle my nerves. I can now happily watch it ride as I don't NEED to recoup my stake. I'm a novice at this anyway so don't want to get too ahead of myself! LOL
Well done to anyone who got 20% profit coming down from 54p.
Don't fall in love/hate with a share. Invest the facts.
Shorts are one of the most powerful tools in a traders armoury.
Alpha, been short for quite a while. I did fill my underwear when the news of the possible takeover hit and in caution reduced my holding but still kept a healthy chunk
COnsidering the mess of things that seems to be brewing with TD again, this might have a bit further to go - whats your thoughts ?
Ferret, you said you were long the other day, when chatting to SK. Did you sell at a loss and then go short?
Pacha - i couldnt agree more -
Yes i have had a downside view and substantiated with my opinion and evidence i thought pertinent - i have not hidden i am short PMO as a result of that belief and it is now paying me handsome but not one to blow my trumpet. I just hope others didnt get suckered into holding by the 'hunches' you refer to also and took the nice profits.
I am looking to get back in long but still feel more downside to come to markets overall - i wold also liek to know a bit more about TD's plans for the covenants and the can kicking to September - this is a big issue for me
I sold enough at 49p to recoup my actual investment value, just leaving the profit in to let it ride,so generally ok, but not enjoying watching the slide obviously. I have to say, Ferret you appear to have a downside view but it is one i quite enjoy because I don't want to read just upside rose tinted views all the time, so it tempers my optimism!
The message I'm trying to say is that i think views from all perspectives are valuable and no one should dismiss a view out of hand, unless it is just someones hunch like '50p coming today' without any basis for that view.
Read between the lines, do your own reading & draw your own conclusions.
well it didnt get to 42.25p. close though. time for oil to drop to $39 this evening. a close below that would be bad if you a PMO bull.
indeed it does Kraken - you sold and took profit i trust ?
Well it certainly given people a great second chance to buy