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Solder this is not what I ment.
Valuing the company u have to think about debt. Other posters ignored that when they made sp/mcap redictions.
Lemarc I do not know even khow how to short :) but I see in shorttracker others do.
kenniGT, what else are you shorting? I need to be in those shares.
Soder, quite right. The other, and very important intangible benefit ( in addition to 4bn tax free profits ) is the far improved talent in the leadership team compared to old pmo. Investors will be much more confident in the new team to deliver sustainable results and develop the assets, rather than stumble from one crisis to the next, as with old co. Lots to look forward to and not much to careful about ( barring a collapse in oil price, which will be significantly hedged in any event as you point out )
A poster telling you to be careful just stated market cap has to include debt. You make you own mind up if you should take advice from that poster.
Enterprise value = mkt cap + net debt
We know for sure that net debt is going to be 3.2bn. Maybe less given cash flow since Xmas. It’s well hedged so pro forma ebitda will be at least 2bn.
All figures above in usd. Fx will be a big headwind to the share price in gbp. But use 1.41 and you can make assumptions on appropriate ev ebitda multiple. It will be between 5.5-6x imo. You can then back calculate a mkt cap and a share price using the pro forma number of shares outstanding.
Did someone say be careful?!
I just say be careful with those optimistic predictions. It is not so simple.
Well said, raffles, always best to have all the relevant facts, not just the neg. Cheers .
Plus you need to add the 4bn tax credit!
Mcap has to include debt so whathever u think always u have to do minus 3bln
yes, correct Blade, peers are around 7bn and that is 38p. It will go up as the funds load up after April and with oil increasing.
St, I think you are being quite conservative with mcap at 5bn. I think 7bn is more likely , in line with peers, which would be a share price of 38p . If we get to oil at 70 by then, even 40p .
James, the new group might have a Mcap $5bn+ and EV of $8-10bn with close to 18bn shares getting added.
There are significant number of shares being allotted to creditors and Harbor group that is acquiring PMO and there is a 6-12 months locking period for these shares. Same number of PMO shares will trade under the new company. Jefferies have a target of 30p opening under the new group.
The combined group will have a production of 220kbpd making them largest among the NS producers.
Good Morning,
Just a quick question. I am a charter and am not normally interested in fundamental news but since PMO are such a well known stock this has caught my interest. With the merger will our shares be diluted and what are the general terms of the agreement. Thanks in advance for your answers.