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Little concerned that Pemex has put the breaks on someone signing on the dotted line for Zama. Stuff like this shows why it’s best to monetise discoveries in countries that can’t be trusted.
Thanks to all. I suspect that none of us know precisely how this will play out except the cards are stacked in our favour. Just how much, we don't know.
Through gritted teeth I think it’s unlikely they will burn, though personally I would like to have seen them beaten with a rubber hose for what they have tried to do. lol
Plebeens history never repeats itself exactly, but some of the same ingredients are in the PMO pot as with previous examples of shorts going wrong. I think the next few weeks are going to be fun for LT holders..
Thanks for that plebleens, good summery.
We went through this on the board back in December. Reality check. They own the debt at circa 60-70p in the pound so have made a packet on that, plus coupon value and any warrants. They own over 10m physical shares . With the short averaging low 70s plus cost of borrowing shares etc.. they won’t lose money (just profit banked last year) unless share price gets closer to £2. Stranger things have happened, but the VW and Tesla short coverings were fuelled by multiple parties competing against each other and in VW case not enough free float. The free float is getting bigger with the placing/ RI, just the argument about how they get their hands on it....everybody has a price, and doesn’t stop us taking out the yearly highs. Really need those Zama numbers soon to cause a few sparks...
Thanks for that JW, it helps explain why the sp was held down in the 70’s . I dare say goldmansucks were an undercover concert party, creaming off fees, but smart to avoid shorting themselves.
Set my limit at 1.80 a while back, may have to revise (upwards lol)
It’s v possible their could be a VW or Tesla moment on the cards, not sure ARMC can insure against that nightmare scenario. Keep an eye on your limits, this has the potential, as seen elsewhere, to literally rocket.
Do we know if they own any shares?
Correction
I need to label my cells on spreadsheet properly
Bond profit is £ 132m therefore net profit is £ 70m
Thanks JW. The positive delta of only £18m will quickly disappear, nay, go negative, in no time with all this news coming out v v soon.
I have a detailed spreadsheet listing all the trades since feb 2017
Using the daily closing price they are arround 69p average
Net position on short is down £ 52M. whilst I rekon the profit on the bonds is up £ 70M
Above excludes margin calls and loan fees
The catalyst to close is a number of things :
Poo above $60,
Stellar results on 5 March (not long now )
Zama sale conclusion with better than forecast proceeds (or at least on target)
Failure to acquire any (or enough) shares in the placing or rights issue
and the rabbit out of the hat ... Charlie 1 Drill success
Would not want to be in ARCM's position with all these positive news events coming down the tracks heading straight at you like a huge, unstoppable, express train.However , quite nice if you're on the train as a LTH in PMO. Enjoy the ride everyone. Next stop 1.50 land !
Arcm Hunter posted some time back a list on the shorts dates/prices . I recall they were well below today’s sp. I wonder what will be the catalyst for them to close.
Looks like the max Premier was shorthed was Septermber 2019. It seems to have gone down a bit since then. In September PMO's SP was between 80 and 95p. Maybe the drop half was throuf Sept was due to shorting? So with the sp @ £1.07 they are currently on a big looser by the looks. We have incresing oil price, Zama sale news any day and results on 5th march so IMHO the sp is only going North, for now.
All IMHO.
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