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APA was something put about by the bankers to generate some debate/interest, mandates.
Who would want to take them over with that debt round their necks and an uncertain price and abandonment liabilities, not PE. PE wants a vessel to inject their company so they can liquidate their unsellable investment.
That leaves a listed entity but can't see who has the will or need to take this on.
tax pools are great but you need to be a company significant oil/gas in the UK (so you can make use of the pools) and paying or due to be paying tax in the UKCS.. not too many doing that at these prices.
With forcast over 100kbpd, 1,9bln debt, 4bln tax credit AND current valuation 150m PMO has to be on the plate for takeover.
Much more than this FT article from 3 months ago indicates. They state there, takeover might even be advised by creditors:
'In similar circumstances, creditors will often elect an adviser to figure out whether it is worth agitating for alternatives such as a disposal or a stake sale, as well as to sound out potential buyers for a full takeover.
To that end, Apache would be one of the first names on any adviser’s list. The North Sea contributes about 15 per cent of Apache’s annual production and, while the fields are likely past their peak, they still deliver steady cash on relatively low operating costs with negligible political risk attached.
Buying Premier would approximately double Apache’s North Sea production, according to Jefferies analysts. Operational overlap would deliver cost savings as well as some huge potential tax benefits, with Premier carrying tax losses well in excess of $4bn versus a market value of less than $600m.'
https://www.ft.com/content/bbe01e4e-d38f-4e33-a3cd-94926e7f4039
Only news about potential takeover were about Apache
https://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+M+and+A/Apache+%28APA%29+Explores+Potential+Bid+for+U.K.s+Premier+Oil+-+Source/17076006.html
Management agreement or a complete revolt by share holders.At the moment I cant see either
thats what the "et al" means!
What makes you think Chrysaor is the only out there?
What makes you think Chrysaor et al were talking about a takeover?
It would have been a reverse takeover.. chrysaor et al are all probably privately held and need/want a listing (along with some other privately held oil co's who can't float/IPO), and so need a listed vehicle to reverse into. As such there is no offer price just a discussion about how many shares PMO will issue to the shareholders of the incoming company, and who gets to run the "new" entity.
This means it has to be agreed by management/Board (who may want to continue) as the company wishing to reverse in can't really go hostile and actually offer anything - its the listing they mainly need not necessarily the asset base. An incoming party with a lot of production, can of course more easily service the debt pile.. bottom line, you are reliant on management negotiating away their jobs, (i.e. Whats the payoff and option package treatment)
hmm this is maybe why they driven price so low, to allow them to aquire 30% shares and then pay for the rest 52week bid high.
It was like this wit RRE, share price came back to high precovid level.
So any bid to takeover would need to be £1.20 ?going by prices below(copy /pasted)
52 Week High120.70
52 Week High Date07-Jan-2020
52 Week Low10.015
When a person or group acquires interests in shares carrying 30% or more of the voting rights of a company, they must make a cash offer to all other shareholders at the highest price paid in the 12 months before the offer was announced (30% of the voting rights of a company is treated by the Code as the level at which effective control is obtained).
When interests in shares carrying 10% or more of the voting rights of a class have been acquired by an offeror (i.e. a bidder) in the offer period and the previous 12 months, the offer must include a cash alternative for all shareholders of that class at the highest price paid by the offeror in that period. Further, if an offeror acquires for cash any interest in shares during the offer period, a cash alternative must be made available at that price at least.
If the offeror acquires an interest in shares in an offeree company (i.e. a target) at a price higher than the value of the offer, the offer must be increased accordingly.
The offeree company must appoint a competent independent adviser whose advice on the financial terms of the offer must be made known to all the shareholders, together with the opinion of the board.
Favourable deals for selected shareholders are banned.
All shareholders must be given the same information.
Those issuing takeover circulars must include statements taking responsibility for the contents.
Profit forecasts, quantified financial benefits statements and asset valuations must be made to specified standards and must be reported on by professional advisers.
Misleading, inaccurate or unsubstantiated statements made in documents or to the media must be publicly corrected immediately.
Actions during the course of an offer by the offeree company which might frustrate the offer are generally prohibited unless shareholders approve these plans.
Stringent requirements are laid down for the disclosure of dealings in relevant securities during an offer.
Employees of both the offeror and the offeree company and the trustees of the offeree company’s pension scheme must be informed about an offer. In addition, the offeree company’s employee representatives and pension scheme trustees have the right to have a separate opinion on the effects of the offer on employment appended to the offeree board’s circular or published on a website.