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Bondsan, Longboat is certainly an interesting play. I think they may tie up with PMG in some way, a lot of common interests and people.
Maybe they'll take a sizeable minority stake (say 25%) in PMG to prevent a takeover. Both TC (with Dana) and FPM believed they were taken over at well below fair price. PMG had a sizeable stake in FPM until they were acquired.
longboat energy also - recent ipo - ex faroe petrol management team looking for a deal.
North Sea is hot , should be no problem farming down Shetlands drills if they cant go it alone. cairn , pmo , tullow ( they should have more nth sea exposure imo ), rockrose , enquest, spirit , valor , siccar pont , ithaca , etc
Hi MM,
yes sorry, I'm getting them mixed up. P2069 (205/12) was Davaar, not Sanda as I've written below, so they've had Davaar twice.
Sanda (205/13) they originally got a % of in 2015 (with other stakeholders), and other WoS blocks which they subsequently relinquished. They then got 100% of 205/13 in 2017, and looks like a new license/term as a result.
Robs 12 - Davaar was another one that was relinquished and taken back in a slightly different shape if memory serves me right.
GLA.
Maybe BondSan, they are big numbers. Half a billion barrels recoverable P50 would be very nice, but given the lack of comment on it in either 2018 or 2019 annual reports I have my doubts...
But they'll need to get a shift on if they want to keep Sanda N & S . The license (P2296) started 19th Feb 2017, and initial term is 4 years - so to Feb next year.
The work commitment before then is to reprocess two 3D seismic lines (PMG say they have already undertaken "extensive" reprocessing) and there is a drill or drop provision, or give it up. So they need to drill a well, unless they can wangle an extension. That'll be some task unless they already have a farmout deal in negotiations and can persuade OGA to give them an extension to complete the drill as a result.
They had this block previously (P2069 awarded Oct 2012 with initial term of 4 years, hence the link to the old Charles Stanley report on it a couple of posts down), then got it awarded again in 2017, so they must have liked it.
Can't find the license details for Davaar (P2406), but it started 1st Oct 2018, so if it is the same terms they have another 18 months or so on that.
Bondsan yes I agree. 'Forward thinking ' assets
the Shetland licenses are the real jewel here...in my opinion. major operated oil fields either side of the prospects. Scheihallion field etc . Hurricane to the south. TC was forward thinking when securing these
Some useful (albeit a few years old) info ref Perth appraisal wells and hub plan etc - page 5 onwards:
https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Charles_Stanley_Research_21.10.2013.pdf
Ref Polecat and Marten, and PDL generally - page 3 onwards:
https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Charles_Stanley_Research_28th_Round_Results_21.11.20141.pdf
And Davaar WoS, just for fun..:
https://www.parkmeadgroup.com/uploaded/research/Charles_Stanley_PMG_Davaar_Update_19022014.pdf
All well worth the effort to read if you after some technical detail (though obviously old, so figures incorrect!).
Neil, regarding Perth/Dolphin/Lowlander - "The three fields have been fully appraised, with a combined total of 13 wells drilled, and contain oil in place of over 400 million barrels." This from PMG 14/9/2016.
Perth and Dolphin produced "32-38o API oil at production rates of up to 6,000 bopd per well".
Lowlander "is an Upper Jurassic Piper sandstone discovery, appraised by five wells, and contains 2C oil resources of 21.4 million barrels of recoverable oil on a P50 basis".
There is an unquantified "Midlander" prospect nearby too.
Up until 2016 or so, PMG referred to it as the PDL project - Perth/Dolphin/Lowlander. Then it was changed to GPA (Greater Perth Area) when Polecat and Marten were added to the portfolio - "The Polecat and Marten fields have the potential to be highly valuable to Parkmead as, given their close proximity to PDL, they could be jointly developed as part of the Greater PDL Area project".
Polecat was appraised in 2010, the well flow tested at 4,373 bpd of good quality 32° API oil.
The Marten discovery was made in 1984, encountering three oil bearing sandstones of Upper Buzzard age.
They must be some 50-60km from Scott though, so not sure if still in the frame..
Neil thanks for response helpful.
10 years from now...hmmm... I am thinking more about 2 years from now ;-)
By then...:
- GPA deal done and some value for it in the Share Price, hopefully a lot.
- First gas flowing from Platypus (and maybe plans for development of Platypus East (Possum) for an extra 50bcf) - this should be roughly the same as the current NL gas flow rates, so all things being equal they'll be making double the profits they are now, nice cashflow.
- Skerryvore firmed up and maybe a farmout - New seismic done in Q3 2019, will be reprocessed and interpreted during 2020, three stacked prospects have the potential to contain 157 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent on a P50 basis.
- Blackadder (up to 170bcf?) with Cluff (now playing with Shell)
- maybe some WoS news for a farmout - though notable by silence about WoS in the interims/AR. So maybe they're gonna drop it...or maybe they're just keeping very quiet about it for other reasons...
- some news, and hopefully action on the renewables plan
Should be a transformational couple of years.
A few years back, Senergy estimated 24% recovery rate for Perth, when 2P was given as 41.3MMBbls. Charles Stanley had to say about it: “For Phase 1, our economic valuation assumes a recovery rate of 24% (based on the Senergy 2P estimates). We expect the actual recovery rate to vary from this current best estimate, perhaps materially because there is quite a bit of uncertainty, in our opinion, relating to the distribution of higher quality sands within the heterogeneous Claymore reservoir. Recovery estimates for the Claymore and Scapa fields, which also produce from Claymore sands, increased over time to 40% and 56% respectively (according to the operator Talisman Energy’s most recent publicly available estimates).”
PMG have stated several times they expect GPA to recover more than 80MMBoe.
I strongly suspect they really think it will be a LOT more, but are not shouting about it too loudly yet. Maybe a new CPR with the deal (if it happens), to reflect the above and the reservoir study - "New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project's oil recovery factor".
Cash = 28p/share (as at June, but positive cash flow from NL), a farm worth 7p/share, so all the O&G interests (and Aupec) are currently valued at ~12p/share.
Patience... ;-)
Neil how did you estimate the $90m as it seems low to me! Agree re TC negotiating skills. I personally would favour retaining a sizeable percentage but do understand the rationale for selling the lot if the initial capex would require significant borrowing or fund raising.
"Parkmead hopes to recover 193 million barrels of oil from GPA." (Energy Voice article).
"Parkmead’s GPA project, which has the potential to deliver 75-130 MMBoe on a P50 basis." (2019 AR).
"Perth and Dolphin....recoverable reserves and contingent resources of approximately 104 million barrels of oil" (PMG RNS)
"Lowlander....contains 2C oil resources of 21.4 million barrels of recoverable oil on a P50 basis" (PMG RNS)
These 2P/2C figures stated before ""New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project's oil recovery factor".
Let's err on the cautious/lower side and say it is 75MMBoe, and value it at $5/bbl, that's £288m, or £2.65 per share.
Wack it up to 193MMBoe and $10 and that's £13+/share...
That's without current cash, NL gas, Skerryvore, Platypus (which appears to be progressing well and sounds like will contribute more gas than NL does currently..), explo.
Without Scott the capex is eye watering even though it is muted that finance has been offered by the service companies. To me the best outcome is to sell GPA outright to CNOC and concentrate onshore/offshore gas and WOS.
Tom Cross has already alluded to companies interested in a takeover of PMG and to me the criticised land purchase (by me anyway) was much more about increasing Cross and associates share percentage to make a hostile bid nye impossible.
GLA.
GPA is certainly an interesting one to negotiate and an operating cost share scenario as opposed a tariff agreement would not surprise me so the $30 figure sounds about right. Charles Stanley research BEFORE the Scott platform was mentioned as a host was put at breakeven with Brent @ $47. We know that the Scott solution would “dramatically” reduce the capex.
Whatever the outcome I cannot see the O.G.A. allowing G.P.A. to remain undeveloped because the partners cannot agree a tariff/cost share agreement. We have different views of Tom Cross my opinion is the comms. of PMG are appalling but one thing for sure his negotiating skills are top draw.
GLA.
Thank you for your responses, very much appreciated. I like the thought of a NPV of $10 a barrel and the impact that valuation would have on the SP as a minimum!