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Or even reading the announcements .........
dougie it might be worthwhile having a look at heimdals useful summary on the 23rd jan.i also think we will get some news on the longevity front although not for some time.
Tomorrow at 15:06:34........lol
If we did, we would have insider information.
Does anyone know when next piece of news will be revealed here ?
morning bignose.and it looks like the reddit bubble my have burst also.gamesstop shares now down 75%from where they were at high last week.trouble with artificially inflated bubble prices is that if you buy in at the top you really have no, or virtually no, chance of getting money back, as the value was never there in the first place. not the case with regent imo, so exponentially upwards!
Continuing on from speculation of a market collapse.....
Today:
"Global markets are showing signs of returning to confidence after a period of heightened fear over the potential for a market collapse," said IG senior market analyst Joshua Mahony.
"The recent Reddit-led targeting of stocks and commodities appears to be fading with GameStop, AMC, and silver all on the slide.
"The volatility index has also provided reason for optimism, with today's sharp decline in the so-called 'fear gauge' marking a distinct move away from the highly elevated levels seen since last Tuesdays near three-month high."
Which just goes to show how fickle markets and people are. In the end it all depends how well one sleeps, how well one eats, whether one wakes up with a headache and feeling grumpy or if the wife has got/had an headache......lol
Onwards and exponentially upwards. ;-)
Well thanks, Italian, for the time being at least. 2020 was a particularly busy year for me and tiring - furthermore, the new norm has destroyed many of my good habits but maintained my rather healthy appetite. Let's hope all of our efforts in containing this beast are for the best and that the hidden costs don't come back to haunt us!
I cannot help feeling heartened by the recent progress here and the most welcome signs of life from our BoD, let's also hope that we are well positioned to make back lost ground!
Good morning Professor, good to have you back onboard. My main worry is the overheating US market. The current S&P500 10-year P/E ratio is now a staggering 33.91. This is 71% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E over 1 standard deviation above the modern-era average. Such high P/E ratio is clearly unsustainable and a correction might well be underway now, dragging the rest of the world markets down as well. In the last couple of weeks we have seen a dramatic increase in the short selling ratio in many stocks on the HKSE which is a cause for concern. It is not possible to short 575 as the MCap is too low at the moment. This trading week will be most interesting with the revolutionary Reddit army and all. On the long track this should only be a bump in the road for the 575 sp. Heimdal
interesting post Professor. good to hear from you.i hope you have been keeping well in these difficult times.there are some very concerning developments and movements going on today which few if any could have predicted 10 or 20 years ago. i'm of an age where the impact for me is now mostly vicarious, on my children and grandchildren, but no less concerning for that. agree entirely with your thoughts re the chinese trend, which i suspect will only continue to grow in strength.
We are in unprecedented times Heimdel, in fact the past 13 years are akin to a modern revolution. Threats to the way we live have been coming thick and fast, yet despite these challenges, markets have actually fared very well.
You may be correct, a 10% movement in a single month could be unsustainable and a correction might follow - indeed the fund managers will be acutely aware of this fact and may look to take profits, but this is only a temporary movement and the impact should only be short-lived.
Exploring the possibilities for the 10% rise might be a better foundation. Covid continues to dominate headlines over a year on from the first cases being identified in Wuhang. Nobody would have predicted the subsequent contagion and the whole world has now been thrust into working differently. Future generations will be paying for today's policies, whether it be the cost of furloughing or simply the impact of business models becoming unviable overnight. Governments across the planet will be struggling to live within their fiscal means and for this one, cuts will be felt much harder. It is therefore more likely that repayment will be over a longer time period with acceptance of debt and the relative devaluation of those countries that have been hit the worst, with those non-sovereign nations being held hostage to the fortunes of their parent currency. Don't forget, we are already seeing considerably more public money pouring into people's pockets and this time it is not being saved - inflation to some degree is almost inevitable.
Which brings me to my point. I would argue that the Chinese have somehow escaped the worst of recent events and are possibly in a stronger position than others going forward. Rather than speculating on the reasons for this (although I would hazard a guess that it lies within their cultural roots), I would speculate that the balance will shift quicker towards the East as a result.
Heindel, my answer to your question set on Wednesday is that I agree with you that a monthly 10% rise is unsustainable, however at a macro level, what we are seeing may be the effect of global forces and that it may in fact be the beginning of a correction in its own right.
Good observation Escovido but not back in February-March when the global market tanked.
Markets are overheating (not least in the US) and a 10-20% correction might well be due. If so
we might find support around the 15c level. Time will tell. On the long track I am sure we will do well.
Also, in the last year or so, whenever we bump off the MA50 a few times it's been followed by a sharp rise. (1 year daily chart)
morning all.yes volume is a bit higher than usual ,but looking at the trading range (0.185-0.20) there doesn't seem to have been much of a pump or dump really. im not too worried about the profit warning as my recollection is that it doesn't really move the needle much.just going on memory and not empirical data so could well be wrong. i imagine most LTHs realise its largely to do with amortisation.that said we will no doubt have the usual lack of income versus outgoing expenditure,so it won't be pretty and always makes for uncomfortable reading.not too worried about market correction,as regent seems to plough its own furrow to a large extent.again personal observation,no data ,so could be wrong here also.i agree bignose that i don't expect s/p to fall too far from present level as a number of potentially positive things on the horizon.let us hope that this time they move from the horizon to the foreground!
P & D before Chinese New Year.......... where are you now SecretSquirrel22 ?........lol
Heimdal,
I'm not so sure about dropping as low as 0.15 since we are still pretty low at 0.19. That said, the usual profit warning due any day now could spark a retreat, although I still wouldn't think it will drop as low as that given the expected updates still to come in the next few weeks which could mitigate it ?
Very difficult to predict the trading of an Asian mind....lol
KGI Asia and Fulbright pushing the sp higher at the moment, P&D before a correction? Remember the spike end of January last year where we went from 10c to 20c within two days on high volume?
The Hang Seng Index has risen +3,000 points (10%) during the past one month.Such a rapid rise is unsustainable, as such I expect we must be very close to a correction as the market is overheating. I expect we will find support around the 15c level before we move up again. Your thoughts? Heimdal