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evening all.interesting news thanks, heimdal re venturex and develop.its fun to play around with the potential market figures for fortacin,but the reality.,imo ,is that it is quite impossible to come up with any reliable estimate of what it might all mean in practice.we have a history of overly optimistic estimates for europe and massive disappointment in reality,(although things may perhaps be improving or about to improve with otc). clearly critical to overcome the supply chain difficulties so more news on that would be welcome.whatever the size of the market in practice,our share is going to be determined by the as yet unknown factors of what type of deal/deals we get. royalties and if so at what rate? profit sharing and if so at what percentage? the detail will have a massive impact on whether or not we need to get the grain silos on order again.only joking as although the speculative figures do give some cause for optimism, we know only too well that things can turn out very differently in practice.in the meantime its going to be interesting to see what erp's approach to the VXR holding is. looking at it simplistically, it would seem sensible to consider some form of top slicing at this point. get some cash, but keep some shares to stay in the game etc. time will hopefully tell.
All very hypothetical, but could be a possibility if they get it right.
Like many, I suspect Charlie got fed up with the continued lies and misinformation. Given our managements history and abilities, he may have taken the right path. Only time will tell on that one. What would be encouraging signs will be how quickly a license deal can be agreed and how impressive a deal is. Indications so far since 2014 are not encouraging are they given they were supposedly at heads of terms all those years ago.
Very interesting calculations Bignose: 5mill prescriptions. at 100USD/can = 500 mill usd. Brand recognition will probably increase significantly once we hit the US market. Potential for a 10-20 bagger over the next 2-3 years. Charlie should have stayed the course.
very interesting figures bignose.certainly serves to give perspective to the potential.
Going back to the announcement and the figures contained therein.
I've searched the internet and come up with some interesting figures. I include the links to the info if you are interested.
The 2020 U.S. urologist population consists of a total of 13,352 practicing urologists with say 25% dealing with sexual health (could be more or could be less)
The U.S. primary care workforce includes approximately 209,000 practicing primary care physicians, and 56,000 nurse practitioners (NPs).
Using the numbers from the market research doc.
If it is assumed that the 70 physicians write a prescription for say 70% of the 21 patients they see each month, that is almost 12,000 prescriptions per annum (And that's just for the 70).
And if we assume say 10% of the above GP's and nurses work with sexual health issues = 25,500 who may prescribe our product.
Given that the survey is representative (no reason to say it isn't otherwise they would be pretty foolish using the data when discussing license agreements ?) that adds up to a large number of prescriptions. (25,500 + 3,338 = 28,838 x 12000/70 = nearly 5mill prescriptions. at 100USD/can = 500 mill usd.
Of course the above figures and %'s can be debated, but it does give some interesting numbers. Will prospective licensees see it this way ? who knows, but they could help whet the taste buds.
Certainly something to think about ........ As always, DYOR...... ;-)
Having worked with Kevin and his mates, and seen a fair amount of their work in the context of investment and licensing support, they do a good job within the limits of primary healthcare research, but you are right to take the numbers with a large pinch of salt in the absence of detailed methodology. Might help to lay out the process:
First, the physician sample is not random, but will have been pre-screened with respect to practice size, years in practice, familiarity with PE, with perhaps a question on "how many PE patients do you see" or "do you consider PE treatable by pharmacotherapy"?
The chosen ones are presented with a "target product profile" which lays out the characteristics of the drug (easy enough for Fortacin since largely defined) and impressions collected. The next layer of questions is intended to capture prescriber response as degree of interest in the drug; intention to prescribe; as first or second-line Tx; attractions and disadvantages.
Pricing is used to further refine prescriber intent- for example, high out of pocket cost might have prescribers limit use to a subset of covered or employed patients, or confine to Tx refractory patients.
As with all market research, the danger lies in bias and sample size (the sample of 70 is less than 0.07% of community based GPs and non-hospital based urologists). Only around 3% of urologists (private practice and hospital-based) specialise in ED/sexual medicine.
The "Viagra" comparison is a nonsense, and I suspect a Gibsonism. There was essentially no ED market outside of a very small number of urologists treating prostate and post-op patients, so completely misleading to use this as some notion of baseline.
But then everyone misuses/misquotes primary research to their own ends (yeah, done it myself), and I've yet to come across a licensee or acquirer blinded by it (generalist investors, even the big boys, can be a bit more gullible).
possibly best not to delve too deeply into the figures,for fear that therein lies madness. lol. for example, does the word "physicians"in the paragraph starting "as a group" refer only to the primary care physicians,i.e. excluding the sexual health specialists, or is it just used generically? if the former, it reduces even further the number endorsing it. personally at this point I'm just going along with the generally positive tone of the announcement and not worrying too much about the precise figures.as so often with these types of announcement, the precise detail may not be absolutely clear and without access to the full survey detail we are not going to get to the bottom of it.i agree the reference to viagra is interesting, if a tad nebulous .seems clearly designed to bolster the positivity level though, so good to see. fortacin as a household name? now that's an interesting thought, but as you suggest,not holding my breath. still nice to have a bit of positive news for a change .doesnt seem to have had much of an impact on the market, as although up a reasonable percent, the volume was still pretty low.
Apologies for the typo. That shd have been. If one were to take the 71% and take 90% of that. (Not 80% as written). The calculated figure is for 90%.
Not sure if there is any significance here but with respect to the paragraph in the announcement:
As a group, 71% of them felt there was a significant unmet need for the treatment for premature ejaculation and existing treatments were not particularly successful. When presented with the target profile of Fortacin, 90% of physicians felt that the product would be valuable as front-line therapy and be well received by their
patients and they would certainly prescribe.
If one were to take the 71% and take 80% of that, we get 64.6% which is 45 urologists out of the 70. Interestingly 29% felt felt there was NOT a significant unmet need for the treatment., which actually surprises me. Maybe these are just witch doctors and the like that would rather prescribe snake oil !!!
Also, it is interesting that they make a comparison with Viagra prior to approval. Does this then suggest or are they inferring that sales of Fortacin would out sell Viagra, which I'm a little skeptical about, although may well do to begin with (although not much of a benchmark) before Viagra became a household name, which I don't expect Fortacin to become.... or could it ???
thanks for that bignose.very helpful.we can but hope!
Yes, I was rather surprised myself regarding my docs response, but as I noted, it obviously needs a lot of market awareness, which our intrepid leaders have not taken advantage of since 2014 !!!
Although shareholders have never been advised on phase lll numbers, I have been led to believe it would be around 75, however. It all depends on the FDA and since as I wrote the phase II results appear to be excellent and given all the available eu date, they may feel a lesser number appropriate. I’d like to think that they may even give phase lII a miss…..since all the available data is quite conclusive…..but what do I know…SFA….lol
meant to add that it was interesting what your local doctor had to say.always good to hear a medical perspective.
morning bignose.yes quite correct in that we first have to get confirmation of submission,which erp have said is anticipated mid august and then we will have to wait for details of agreed trial.as you say,the number of patients is going to be critical to length of recruitment etc.am i correct in thinking we have never been given any indication of figures? i can't recall any, but i may simply have forgotten. let us hope the fda does take due note of the apparently excellent p2 results and keep things to a minimum.it was bit odd how the china trial number went up considerably from the initial indication.anyway feeling a little more positive today and agree the modest rise is most probably off the back of the fortacin news rather than the venturex position.thanks heimdal for the update.whoever coined the title"diggers and dealers" deserves a medal for encapsulating the very essence of the event in just 3 words.brilliant!
The first hurdle is actually making the submission which has yet to still happen. The second hurdle is agreeing the number of subject which, given how long it took for the phase II study, could have a huge impact on time scale. That said, given how positive the results of the phase II appear, may encourage the FDA to only require a lesser number than expected ?
hello dougie.i don't think we have had any specific news which would indicate a lengthening of the FDA timescale,but you've obviously got all the usual caveats regarding speed of recruitment, covid related delays (nothing specific,just generalised delay) and i suppose a history of delayed timescales etc.that said perhaps we will find that if endurance are confident of a commercially successful outcome at the end of the day ,they may have renewed vigour to push matters on as quickly as possible.its still a long process,but first hurdle is going to be news of FDA trial start, hopefully not long away.
Thank you heimdel, yet again more interesting posts, the real unknown is what value interested parties would put on the potential of fortacin in the USA but that is information we will never know until a potential deal is announced I guess . Has anything happened to add time to fda process Italian? I haven’t seen anything so remain hopeful it can be smooth process
thats interesting heimdal. thanks for that.wonder if we will see any buying tomorrow?not too concerned if we don't as its beginning to look like a long game till fda approval.
News out in China: http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202107282019393516.html
Strongly agree Italian.
afternoon bignose and heimdal.just seen the news.not wishing to get carried away but probably the most encouraging news in a very long time.
Very encouraging indeed Bignose :-)
Extra Extra Read all about it.
An update to the marketing research performed.
This update has more content on price point and looks very encouraging.