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DS / C7
Please see my reply below, having re read my post from yesterday I can see I have not explained my thoughts very well. Apologies for that.
Hi L2
Yes you’ve summed up my thoughts pretty well. My post was a bit 2+2=5 but I failed to show my workings. Of course I know the 50% is in Chinese hands ATM, but as China is Kenmare’s largest market, my suspicious mind went into overdrive.
Totally sticking with my idea that we’ll see an asset sale though, what it is worth to us is my question.
Patoir,
Thanks for the post. I think I understand what you mean when you mention Kenmare, I just think you have got slightly confused in putting the detail forward (easily done!).
My take is that the Chinese company have 50% and will be looking to wrap up 100% ASAP by negotiating a sale with PFP/Veloso.
PFP are obviously playing this the right way by talking about developing the mine, getting to final feasibility stage etc but in reality I don it think this is the plan.
I see a quick and probably lucrative deal for pfp for their share of the license. The Chinese state company will no doubt already have contacts in the area as they need the raw materials. Join up the dots and you have a successful mining operation (Kenmare) next door to the license area that are both well funded and already doing business with the Chinese.
I do feel it would be right for pfp do give shareholders more facts on who the Chinese company is and what there proposed next steps are (although I think they are holding this information as a deal is going to be swift). I would also like to hear a little more clarification from Align on the same subject. In the previous weeks their communication was very thorough but I feel the shareholders have been left slightly hanging by the last interview between align and John Taylor ( though as stated I think the reason for this is because a deal is lined up already).
All of course in my honest opinion.
GLA
Assuming Kenmare have 50% of the licence makes no sense, when the RNS clearly says that PFP have witnessed proof that the 50% was transferred to Chinese.
DS
I’m not saying Kenmare are, only assuming they are.
L2
I very much enjoyed reading your post last Wednesday. I wanted to reply sooner, but didn't get round to it.
I think many long term holders and some new ones will agree completely with what you have said, as do I. I remember some of your previous posts and it is obvious you are well tuned into the story of PFP.
I have been around a while too and although I have always been a PFP bull (even when the SP and my investment was in freefall), I have to say that the recent news and research from Align has shifted my attitude to a somewhat more immediate feeling of bullishness. Indeed I doubled up on recent news and I am happier now that I have been since investing initially.
Assuming Kenmare is our suitor, it is my opinion that now they are in possession of 50% of the overall license, they will want the other 50% in quick time. I doubt they will want to have PFP or the General hanging on either, so my feeling is that they'll take us out with a cash and bugger off type of offer. This could happen any day. I really cannot see that they paid good money (would be very interested to know how Cavaco faired there) to hold 1/2 of a mine that can't be mined, because the other owners can't get their house in order. I honestly think the offer of cash is there and the Plc and Veloso are just working out how to split it. Being in possession of 50% of the asset, it would not surprise me at all if Kenmare weren't already nibbling shares from the market, to strengthen their hand at the negotiating table. My question is what is the price being offered?
Here you go, it’s on the Align research twitter feed. Well worth a read
http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Pathfinder_Update_Align_April_2020.pdf
Well said sir!
Nice read logic
Can you please supply a link to the comprehensive research paper please
I think on a day like today it is important to remember the strides the company have made. PFP are now finally negotiating for a share (circa 30%) of the whole licence valued at $1billion US Dollars.
Align research have put together a very comprehensive research paper covering the full history of the license and the proposed route forward ( I would highly recommend shareholders read this).
The CEO has been as open as he can be in giving an interview in which talks about the “window of opportunity “ that has presented itself to finally complete a deal. A window of opportunity can close quickly and that for me gives clear guidance as to timelines to complete a deal.
With PFP’s history it is easy to panic but I would urge caution as we are in potentially a better position then the company has been for a long time. The CEO has invested in the proposed fund raise, he must have a reason to do this. He is obviously limited in what he can publicly say and the market does not like unclear timelines but the company is in a very good position to finally work a deal that will make the years of frustration worth it. IMHO, GLA