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Thats a nice bit of advice. Thanks. Someone else mentioned COP26, so all in I stayed out apart from one minor mess up. I accidentally bought 1 share...not the best trade platform.
I am trying to trade the dip. I believed in my head that an SP of around 72p would emerge post fundraise ..subject to the rerate risk Scot mentioned.
Staying out may look very short sighted in a few days, but all i can do is be agile if an opportunity’s presents.
This share languished in the 30’s for some time and most of the facts haven’t changed. The oil is still as wet as when they announced drill results last winter so they need money and then to announce how they address wetness.
No sellers remorse here just careful of thinking there is more to be made when risk vs reward is now much very tighter for me.
Well done on taking a profit. For what it is worth and in my opinion, try and get away from the idea of buying in at a lower price. You are either admitting you made a mistake selling or are trying to trade the dips (neither I think). If still interested in PANR, buy when you think it is right, the price could be 100p. Nothing has changed since you pushed the sell button. Avoid seller remorse and have a beer.
06.44
Blimey, if you're already sitting on 569% profit, I'm not sure you need advice from anyone. Had I been aware of that significant piece of contextual information, I would simply have suggested that you keep doing what you've been doing. You must have had exactly the same conundrums at various points along your journey so far. Whatever your thought process was back then clearly worked for you.
Your next steps are all about your personal risk profile. Only you can answer your points 1, 2 & 3.
FWIW, my own view is that we may see a small dilution if the company elects to raise funds for the next drill and IMO this is preferable to a FO which gives away too much of the ultimate prize. If we see dilution, I'm confident that this will be more than compensated by a rising SP leading up to the drill. Should the drill be the success we all hope for, then I think there are potential further SP value multiples from here. Should the results be so good that a suitor (even better suitors) appears then the sky is the limit. We also have potential early wins from short term production which brings positive cash flow - never a bad thing.
All IMHO, your money, your choice. Good luck!
No one ever went broke taking profits. ?????? Good Luck.
Cbaron....i got in at 14.75p. So all I have done is realise a 569% gain. Scot seems to be on the money here. He believes in and sees the possibility of a major up rate post RNS.
I see three options
1) stick and call the job a good one
2) partially get back
3) wholly get back in.
If i can get lucky and seal a deal at say 78p then i will have increased my holding by 7% give or take which buffers me against forthcoming dilution.
Regardless of whether i can get back in at a price that suits.... The winter programme remains a risk...reduced since last winters RNS and greatly aided by summers analysis.
I guess the one advantage i have is this......a much more real decision point. Any investment now is based on nearly 6x the capital i was originally prepared to lose, plus the potential upside from here. Plucking a figure almost out of nowhere ie £2.40 (nice round 3x from current sp)- i am thinking what has to happen to get me from here to there
1) oil $100 barrel
2) no contagion melt down from the likes of evergrande
3) no crazy dilution
4) successful winter programme....but I don’t really know what the best possible scenario post successful winter prog is.
I think too much has been focused on the size of of the prize...which is great, but i wanna understand more about critical path to revenue generating ops and or sale of company from here.
Finally i admit my ignorance, but i made a decision. Right or wrong I did that. I think that ability to either accept a loss or indeed luckily in thus case a gain, qualifies me to be in aim.
I find this game much better than the 3:30 at chepstow.
Anyway I am here because i am trying to make something and not lose...which i presume is what your here for too...so any thoughts on critical path post the fund raise would be warmly received. I have put myself firmly in the current. How much do i want this based on the actual £’s and facts as they stand today, not when i looked at this in Mar 2020 and made my calls then!!! I feel there is a clearer focus as a result.....
21.53
If you made a profit at 84p well done.
However, if you are concerned at the relatively small percentage variances, as between 84p and a diluted position of say75p, then I suspect that the stock market is not for you, particularly the AIM market with its typical high risk profile.
The old adage is that you should not invest or gamble - the AIM market is a huge gamble - more than you can afford to lose.
It's your money, Pander, so it's none of my business. All I would observe is that say we all wake up on Friday morning to an RNS which confirms a farm out agreement is now in place which would secure the drilling and flow testing of Theta West, the flow testing of Talitha-A and the drilling of Alkaid-2.....in return for a percentage of the asset base that you could live with. If, and I repeat, if that scenario was to unfold then I contend the stock would gap up on opening, and quite markedly so.
But then, it sounds like you may have already identified that as a risk to your strategy (?) so it's your call. good luck whichever way you decide to go forward.
Okay so i made a call. Two factors that seem to be at play
1) continued farallon selling
2) inevitable dilution for which i am told i am unlikely to be able to partake.
As long as I am out I risk not being able to get back. I could do this now with a 2% margin give or take, but i am working on the requisite dilution needing to drop this to circa 75p. Presumably some will see this as almighty stupid since once the capital is announced / farm out arrangements then a significant revaluation very possible.
Pondering idea of offer...but most see this as implausible!!
Silly to be out at this juncture??