Open Orphan Share Chat (ORPH)

Yes that's a very good point in that particular risk.
Very bullish on Open Orphan. Probably won't sell for a long long time, can see it being a much larger entity in 10 years time. Either through takeover or growth.

Ryan - That’s always a possibility but I dismissed that one (or at least put it in the not to worry category) because I think simple competition will mean that slow trials are for losers.

If 2 large pharma co’s are competing to get a similar product to market they’ll either both do HCT with us in attempt to be first, or one will and they WILL be first. Unless the Pharma believes they have no competition and plenty of time (and time is money), then they can’t afford not to use us. (Hopefully!)

Yes DumbledoresBeard, definitely one of the risks is that someone gets seriously ill or dies and is not able to be treated.

The other risk I see is that human challenge trials gets sidelined. It is not essential for pharma companies to do them. There is (although much slower) other ways of testing their vaccines as we have seen by the current covid vaccines, Due to there not being a necessity to do Human challenge trials there is this risk people will stick to the traditional slower approach, directly hitting Open Orphan.

.....and regarding the reason Institutions aren’t investing, I think there’s several.

1). They like to buy large quantities in blocks rather than the open market. I think Invesco are aware this share is going to perform, but for their own reasons they want out, but not today and not all at today’s price (discounted to a bulk buyer). Over a few months at increasing prices will do them just fine, so their holding isn’t available really to an II.

2). A large quantity of shares really isn’t that easy to get hold of without pushing the open market price through the roof. There isn’t going to be a placing here to give them an easy in, not unless CF sees a great takeover opportunity and needs big capital quickly and he’s got more than enough to do as it is.

3). As we’ve said before CF is the man. He’s impossible to replace therefore risk.

I’m not sure I buy the Woodford association thing. Institutions just want to make money. Gaming, fossil fuels, tobacco, etc, it’s all fair game to them.

BBD - and now we’re narrowing down to what the risks with this share truly are. For me there are only 2 and one of those is never really touched on.

The first obvious one is that someone gets really ill or tragically dies in a study and even though that’s a risk everyone who signs up is aware of, it would still mean bad publicity and a boo boo style SP crash. The net result for a RI is either a slow rebuild of the SP loss (time) or a sale of holding at reduced profit (money). A shame but not a disaster (other than for the patient obviously).

The second one that for me is the genuine risk with this investment is that CF is the man. Just him, that’s it. He has professional guys around him delivering product but he’s the driving force, he makes it happen. People have personal crisis and lose confidence, they can lose their drive for a million reasons and worst of all they can get ill, sometimes quickly. Again from the perspective of an RI, how big is the risk? Nowhere near big enough to put me off a sizeable holding but when people ask him in Q&As what’s the risk with this share and he gives it the thoughtful look and says there isn’t one, for once it isn’t the truth. The above in my view is the only true risk, for everything else, sit back, smell the coffee and wait for him to make regular dividend deliveries followed by a big sale.

Yes, I agree. We should seek to get rid of CF who took the share price up 389% in one year.

Here we go with the accusations. If valid points are being made, that's a great contribution to the board, and questioning "motivation" is a pathetic attitude. Defensiveness is unconvincing evasion, just address the points being made. I pointed out CF's tendency to overpromise, and forget earlier predictions, ages ago, it's obvious and undeniable, but not necessarily a bad thing - his positivity has created enormous success here, it opens doors, and I would argue it IS all about him, because for one thing he's sacked most of the management. That might be a reason institutions are wary of the company, because he isn't playing their game of providing cushy directorships or high paid executive positions. Don't really understand the complaints about the SP though, it's doing fine as far as I'm concerned.

Realist81. First of all - who are you and what was your previous moniker(s) before you signed up as an lse member today and offered us this your first and only post? You might think that's none of my business but I like to know who, on a BB, to take seriously. Your grasp of OO as a company and CF as the man driving it is too impressive for a complete newbie so who are you and where have you been posting before today?

I ask because you leave me confused. You talk about "we as a company" and that you've "been impressed with CF and his presentations" then launch straight into a double figure list of direct criticisms. Are you now unsure of your investment decision? Do you regret it? Do you want out? ..... Or have you actually been quietly topping up?

You appear to be questioning CF's integrity. "CF has been great up until now, but he's also been lucky and now is where he needs to stand up and deliver, ...." "Deliver" !!! What do you think he's been doing this last year? This last six months? 2021 YTD? Is he ".... slowly becoming the ever so common 'jam tomorrow' AIM leader, ...." FFS man!

Every CEO, every successful business builder, every wealth creator, is first and foremost a salesman. Would you invest in a storyline that said 'we're all doomed, there's no future, oh woe is me and everything around me'? The question for the investor is whether they're telling the truth or not. Can I suggest there seem to be enough pointers out there for a generally positive view on CF.

I'm not having a pop at the questions you asked - they're reasonable and are shown to be on a number of respondent's minds - but more at why you asked them as a first post and at this time. You talk about "other rainbows out there ..... but I can't see anywhere better just yet to put my money, ....." So you just stopped off for a while as you were passing through?

As I said, you leave me confused as to your intentions here. I'm neither a rose tinted ramper nor 'looking for a lower entry point', as they say, but I do live in the real world. You claim "it's our hard earned money invested here" in justification of your questions. Well, no it's not.

You're money, hard earned or otherwise, is not invested in OO. The company's never seen a penny of it unless you've been party to a primary share issue. You're money is with whoever you bought your shares from minus a percentage for broker and MM's cut, so you don't have to worry about whether CF's looking after it wisely. Nor do you need to fret about the timing or efficacy of announcements.

All that matters is - based on the information out there for everyone to see, for all the research you've done, for all CF's presentations you've listened to and judgements passed on his character and capabilities - did you make a better call than the guy you bought your shares from. Time will tell if you give it chance.

Typo error with!

Those studies will be moved across the road as and when now will new facilities on board.
The future big potential covid contracts will be going into hVIVO site.
Cathal can play his cards now to suit each contract to facilities.

I'm glad we haven't seen any new hVIVO contracts signed in a little while. If there's a bunch of £10m+ Covid challenge studies incoming that were awaiting ethics approval then it would be a shame to see the clinics capacity filled up with £2-4m RSV and influenza studies.

What will bring things to a head here imo is that CF has not only told the market ( several times) that he will be spinning out several entity's from OO - but the first one will be in a matter of weeks. I would have thought that sort of information would encourage traders as much as buy and hold investors. in any case, if it happens we all win - so that's all good and nothing to gripe over.

Great post Realist. I echo all your concerns and have raised a few questions with IR which I've yet to get an answer to, work in progress, so I've been told. There's no doubt this has the potential to multi bag and I had similar questions pre October before our quick spurt to 30p, so I would say just hang in there, it does take time to do deals but he does need to stop giving off timelines, and telling he can fill it ten times over without backing it up thus far.

Yes, we are here to invest but we are all here to sell too, otherwise, we wouldn't make money and you wouldn't have a market. So we each have our own timelines and are right to question the company. It's healthy and should be encouraged.

You've pretty much listed all my frustrations, however, if none of us believed in CF we wouldn't be here so I think it is a patience game but I will be reassessing end of April too, same as I did last October. GLA

Ryanwood, good post - in addition, it’s not all about CF, the rise of the Roman Empire wasn’t about Caesar it was about his Army of Lieutenants - you’d have bought shares in the Romans in 1ad you would have had an Amazon on your hands by 250ad, then the fall of the Roman Empire and you were back to 1p a share - it’s all about getting in and out at the right time - now is the right time to be in here - and only time will tell when the time is right to exit - some of us have made a nice £ or two in 12 months , me only on paper - it’ll be staying here until I need it or until it’s reached it’s potential - what that is god knows - my head tells me £1.50 = £1b, but don’t put your life on hold for Orph - I bought a new car two weeks ago wanted to buy it cash but needed some of the money out of here - decided to pay small deposit and pay the rest over months while I’m still earning - if I wasn’t I’d have bought a small car cash - in 12 months time if you’re still here your paper will be worth more than it is today - if that isn’t true I’ll eat my car !

'389% rise in 1 year'

'Those expecting that year in and year out will be sorely disappointed' It's possible I'd say
'Those holding for the short term in the hopes it shoots again, will be sorely disappointed' Possible again I'd say
'There are too many people on this board who are waiting just for the price to go up so they can sell' Assumption I'd say. .
Yes the price did well last year, but it has been pretty static since Oct. With it's position and assets another meteoric rise is certainly possible in the short to medium.
'That is not investing. That is trading' Really ? depends on circumstance, maybe some have been in for a year or more. Crystal ball, always wanted one then I could be a know it all too.

This company had an incredible 389% rise in 1 year. That is extraordinary.
Those expecting that year in and year out will be sorely disappointed.
Those holding for the short term in the hopes it shoots again, will be sorely disappointed.

But I will tell you who won't be disappointed... investors hanging in for the long term as the company grows over the next few years. There are too many people on this board who are waiting just for the price to go up so they can sell. That is not investing. That is trading.

Cyan's SP chart is not one of a share price that gently rises over a period of time, but is more prone to long periods of rtrading in a channel, then a relatively quick and sharp stutter up . If you look back at the past year - most of the sp appreciation was done in just 3 months, 2 months between May and June 20 and the single month of October, the remainder of the year the sp is consolidating in what could be described as a channel.

Between the two months of May and June 2020 went from 7p to 15p
in the month of October approx 17p to 30p .
CF has promised a great deal, and i am sure he will deliver but have no idea on timescales for a lot of it, but as far as sp goes ... my money is on another major shift in sp sometime soon.
We are due a lot of good news, so the next leg up is coming.and that's all I care about at the present time.

Past year only 3 months the sp made its main gains. During May and June 20 went form 7p to 15p. In Oct. 2020 went from approx 17p to 30p
Since October, the rest of the year we have been bouncing around under 30p .

Whoever said that share price rises take the stairs and share price falls take the elevator was spot on.

I half-understand your frustration Realist, but I disagree with nearly all of your conclusions, most particularly your suggestion that "Covid won't be around forever". The thing is, Covid, or something like it, will be around for ever - or at least for our investing lifetimes. The pandemic has graphically reminded the world what until the 1960s every previous human generation had understood (and which three quarters of the world's population still daily understands) - that economies and societies can be undone at a stroke by infectious disease. As Cathal Friel rightly asserts, we are inevitably entering a decade or more of intense interest in vaccination and virology and rare diseases - long neglected by big pharma - as a fundamental growth industry. Imho this now profitable small company is a grossly undervalued player in that.

Ditto

Great Post.. my sentiments entirely..

Patience will be greatly rewarded here! But can appreciate your frustrations, too much happening here for CF not to deliver in spades!

The points you make are pertinent and I am sure shared by many of us diehards. To some extent the points you make are exactly why we are only trading at 29-30p and not significantly higher. The delta between the two is where the “market jury is out”. That’s systemic risk for you - we either accept it to our potential advantage or sit on the sidelines until promises bear fruit.

You have to be a realist Realist81 and see that Cathal is building up a solid business over good time. This if for shareholders that want to see the company succeed and not for traders who are in for a quick buck.

Right Place Right Time BUT Cathal doesn't seem to be making the most of the unique situation we as a company find ourselves in. Sure he talks the talk but recently he's not backing up anything anymore, im at the point now where as much as I've been impressed with CF and his presentations (and I've just watched his last 6 from September) I'm beginning to question if he's slowly becoming the ever so common 'jam tomorrow' AIM leader, all of these exciting hints and statements that don't actually eventuate to anything is frustrating.
People seem to be in love with him and therefore overlook things he's not delivering on or misses timelines he sets out, then attack anyone who dare voice their concerns, that said though there's a few things that I would like addressed at some point:

* The last HVIVO contract RNS was November (quite a while ago)

* Chinese were supposedly interested in buying CHIMS/buying a stake

* Where is this 'Strategic Investor' that was mentioned?

* Why arent any Institutions investing in Orph? Surely they see the opportunity?

* Last year and said Invesco wasn't selling 'only top slicing' but we'll be waiting another 3 months for them to sell out. (It puts off any new investors)

* Imutex, why give ConservBio the reigns? (if you can't sell that in this current climate then you need to be shot were his words)

* Said once Covid challenges were approved we could fill the place 10 times over (where's number 1 then?)

* Wearables deals (now DIM) another that was first mentioned in September that we are still waiting for news of first contracts.

* Constant slipping of timelines for Non Core (its always bare with us or 3-4 weeks away then in another presentation 2 weeks later it's 1-2 months away. (This is the most frustrating one for me, don't give dates until definitely known as that sets expectations)

* Broker Notes still don't reflect any of what he says or are in his presentations.

Yes CF has been great up until now, but he's also been lucky and now is where he needs to stand up and deliver, it's our hard earned money invested here and we should be questioning these things. Nobody is perfect not even CF, so let's see where we are come April, there are rainbows out there that others are chasing, but I can't see anywhere better just yet to put my money, but if there's more of the same and still no news then I'll be tempted to look harder. I believe Orph should be much higher than it is currently and with all the news thats supposed to be 'dropping at anytime' you'd think more people would be buying in?

We arent a Covid play but remember it won't be around forever and right now we really should be making the most of the demand and World Leader status that we surely have!