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Clear where the value is:
. Up to 8m LFT a month end April
. Gov lent equipment
. So discounted margins
. Retained value?
"intention is that as soon as the DHSC has access to a test that has successfully passed a performance evaluation, the test will be licensed for Omega"
Novacyt & ODX head to head:
#NCYT design, manufacture & sell OWN tests
2020:
Rev - £277m rev
Sales growth - 2,030% +
Cash - £92m cash
EBITDA profitability - £187m
Market Cap - £580m (2.09 x sales & 6.3 cash)
#ODX after 12 months don't have own test, aim to manufacture for unknown company. What happened to Mologic?
2020:
Rev - £7.5 sales (£9.5m assume inc funding)
Sales Growth - 19% -
Cash - £5.5m > £6m
P&L - £2.1m > £2.3m Loss
Market Cap - £167m (22.2 x sales & 29 x cash)
Most of you will be happy I'm going to close the blinds on my ODX posting for few days. Shame no one fancied discussing any of the technical points i raised. After all i provided quotes and links to back up every statement
Never mind, I'll be back with audio clips from the ODX investor call from the 28th October.
You can argue against King Collins own spoken and written words. Imo the real juice is in spoken word.
Remember said no need to raise more funding to expand capacity to 2m a week. Let's see if he's true to his word
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/trading-update-investor-presentation-1
"Are Roche or Abbott British?"
*Queue furious googling by Quickdraw*
Are Roche or Abbott British?
I keep a board view on all COVID related news.
As mentioned in last post Abbott smashed the Antigen LFT sales. Roche had 50% antigen spare capacity and 75% antibody spare capacity
"Roche can also make 100 million rapid antigen tests monthly, but is now making only about half that via South Korean partner SD Biosensor, in part because it does not yet sell them in the United States. It can make up to 100 million antibody tests, too, to detect of somebody has had a past coronavirus infection or if they have an immune response to a vaccine, though demand is currently around 10-15 million monthly, Schinecker said. (Reporting by John Miller)
https://www.reuters.com/article/roche-results-testing-idUSFWN2KA0FR
Abbott do warn of detecting the S Spike Protein, not sure if ODX are targeting S or N gene.
There was that ODX employee who accidentally leaked he was starting on project with Avacta on their S Spike protein test. See avacta are now looking to work with Mologic to start new LFT project targeting S and N genes. But that's for another board for another day
Abbott Q4 Conf call question:
"your PCR versus antigen tests, can they detect these new variants, especially the South African variant? Is there a difference one versus the other, PCR versus antigen?"
Answer "Regarding your question on mutations and the impact there, a lot of the mutations here--I don’t want to get too wonky here, but we’ve been looking at this, Vijay, since the beginning. We have a group of--we call them the virus hunters, they’re constantly looking and studying and getting their hands on samples to be able to not only test our existing products, but even develop new ones.
I’d say right now the mutations are happening, the ones that you referenced. The South African one and the U.K. one, those are happening on what we would call the spike protein, what we call the S-protein. The rapid antigen tests that we have are actually targeting the nucleocapsid protein, what we call the N-protein, so in silico analysis says no impact. The U.K. NIH did a study on Panbio and found the U.K. variant to not influence the sensitivity of the Panbio, but we’re also collecting as many samples as we can from U.K., South Africa, Brazil, etc. and making sure that we’re constantly studying that to ensure that there’s no change to the sensitivity of the test that we’ve developed"
For example Abbott smashed the antigen LFT's out in Q4 but they have scale, money and track record
"The biggest contribution in the fourth quarter came from our rapid lateral flow test to detect the virus, which includes BinaxNOW in the U.S. and Panbio internationally. These are highly portable, reliable and affordable tests and in just 15 minutes can detect if someone is infectious without the use of an instrument, which means the test can be performed in virtually any setting, such as physician offices, pharmacies, urgent care centers, workplace settings, and even at home.
We also ramped up manufacturing capacity on a massive scale and now are producing more than 100 million of these two tests combined per month.
GaryB72 feel free to address any of my technical points? For ref i did well out of ODX and bought most of Nova holding under £2.
I've been freed up to take my gloves off. And ye, I'll be straight up seems silly for Novacyt money to be migrating to LFT testing companies with such poor execution history.
Quickdraw you are demonstrating an amazingly blinkered view based upon your investment in Novacyt. Genuinely all of the text you have listed relates to Innova, a test which we all know has poor performance.
John Deeks has been an isolated voice from the start and he is becoming ever more so with the new more accurate tests online. He is a pure scientist and obsessed with diagnostic sensitivity.
On the ground clinicians want a tool they can rapidly use to assess a large number of people. PCR cannot fill this niche and we now have British made LTFs coming online with much better diagnostic sensitivity than Innova.
Its clear to me you have an agenda, and are therefore presenting a one sided view of this debate. Im also convinced that you dont really understand this area, its nuances and the different Intended Use or Intended Use scenarios of the different diagnostics in the arsenal.
In the UK the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has granted an “exceptional use authorisation” so that the Innova test can be deployed as a self-testing device as part of the NHS’s national testing programme (the authorisation was granted on the basis of data from the Liverpool pilot). Innova cautions that, as the test has been evaluated only in symptomatic patients, its performance may differ in asymptomatic patients.
All in all, self-testing using lateral flow tests leaves a lot of possibility for misinterpretation of results.
What should the tests be used for?
In a nutshell, lateral flow devices must be used within strictly defined parameters.
The Innova test is being used as a self-test in asymptomatic individuals as a part of the UK’s Test to Find strategy. A positive result is a “red light,” says the Department of Health and Social Care for England, requiring the most infectious individuals and their contacts to rapidly isolate themselves to protect other people from infection.
What should they not be used for?
At present, lateral flow tests are not authorised for “serial testing” of school pupils who have been exposed to a confirmed positive case of covid-19 to enable them to attend school (pupils who are exposed to infected cases have to isolate).
The government had hoped that serial testing would enable it to reopen schools but soon abandoned such plans. (It blamed the U turn on concerns over rising cases of the Kent variant, but it seems it still plans to test the strategy in a small number of trials13). The MHRA has pointed out that lateral flow tests are still not authorised for use in this way.14
The tests also cannot be used to shorten quarantine of travellers arriving in the UK, under the government’s Test to Release scheme. That can be done only with a PCR test result.15
Jon Deeks, who leads the Biostatistics, Evidence Synthesis and Test Evaluation Research Group at the University of Birmingham’s Institute of Applied Health Research, says the health department’s “red light” interpretation of a positive result is a good use of the tests. But a “green light” negative result should not be taken as a sign that all is well, he says, and particularly not to do anything you would not have done otherwise.
That’s hard to control, particularly in a population that has spent over a year enduring lockdowns and social distancing. There is a concern that people who test negative will gain a false sense of security and adopt more risky behaviour. Deeks says studies have shown that people who have recently had a negative result from cancer screening are less likely to have potential symptoms checked out.
Gill agrees. “More and more negative tests are being thrown out there with absolutely no understanding at a serious or psychological scientific level of how to minimise the false reassurance that that generates,” he says.
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n287
Did someone say antibody news is old hat. True that and just 1,100 daily tests a day.
Back to Antigen LFT viral load as was asked to validate the issue with high viral load. I refer you to the British Medical Journal
WHO says that lateral flow tests are more likely to detect positive cases when viral loads are highest and patients are most infectious—typically, one to three days before the onset of symptoms and during the first five to seven days after the onset of symptoms. WHO’s Essential Diagnostics Test states that negative results should never be used as a basis of decision making.
What about asymptomatic people?
All the studies from Public Health England and Oxford University have focused on patients with symptoms.
“Asymptomatic people have a viral load peak that looks to be, on average, lower than the viral load peak of people with symptoms, and it stays at that peak for less long,” says Mike Gill, former regional director of public health for the South East of England.
In other words, if you don’t show symptoms, you shed virus or clear virus more quickly, he says, which means that any test with a relatively low level of sensitivity (such as lateral flow tests, in comparison with PCR tests) could struggle to pick up asymptomatic infections on an “intolerable” number of occasions.
Where the tests have been used among asymptomatic people in real world settings, the reported performance has indeed been lower. In a pilot study conducted in Liverpool 60% of infected asymptomatic people went undetected, including 33% of those with high viral loads.6 Up to 21 January nearly 560 000 lateral flow tests had been done on more than 200 000 Liverpool residents, identifying 4421 people who may not have otherwise known they were likely to be infectious. Among students undergoing lateral flow tests at the University of Birmingham in December, only 3% of those who would have tested positive on PCR were detected.7
This is why WHO recommends repeat testing using lateral flow devices or preferably confirmatory testing with a PCR test after a negative lateral flow test.3
“We already knew that lateral flow tests do appear more accurate with patients who have more virus present,” says Alexander Edwards, associate professor in biomedical technology at the Reading School of Pharmacy. “It follows that they may be better suited to spotting ‘spreaders’ than identifying everyone infected.”8
The question is how to manage false negative results, he says. Are people who receive a negative test result “safe” or “safer” than they were before they were tested?
That’s a worry, particularly as lateral flow tests bought over the counter become more common, and with tests easily bought on the internet and members of the public willing to purchase them for peace of mind.
Techbadger think antibody is less. 200k of 2m. So 10%
Quickdraw18 through the green door.
Beside. Just for clarity our capacity of 2 million a week in April will mainly be for antigen.
Quick draw. I'm inviting myself to ncyt bb. I'm putting together a few post for out of hours. Just because ncyt is down loads. And odx up loads no need for your jealousy.... sell ncyt and buy odx
Quickdraw18 the companies in the UK-RTC are not at fault for dodgy procurement processes by the UK government.
Diagnostic performance of ABC-19 has been shown by studies by Dr Tara Moore in Northern Ireland. There will likely be a drop in accuracy if it was approved for home use as there always will be when the public are asked to perform. A process compared to a professional.
Antibody testing is a limited sign of immunity but admittedly there are other forms such as t cell testing.
You've actually linked to the daily mail! Hahahahahaha.
Also if you haven't noticed the ABC-19 is expected to be 20% capacity. We are all excited by the antigen test right now.
quickdraw.... old argument ..thrashed out repeatedly for months on this board ... all investors left here are more than happy with the outcome of these arguments . feel free to continue to attempt to re start them ..love the faux rage . filtered . zzzzzzzzzz
Wow I thought antibodies are immunity! Don't really know what to say. Best start looking for a new career.
OK regulator
Gov scraps antibody tests at testing sites
https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-government-scraps-antibody-tests-at-nhs-sites/
You can check antibody daily testing here. Running at 1,100 a day
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
Government 'operated illegal buy British policy' over Covid contracts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/government-buy-british-policy-covid-contracts-matt-han****?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
Ministers ignored legal advice to give failing company a huge Covid test contract leaving taxpayers with £87MILLION bill when tests didn't work
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9229507/Taxpayers-foot-87m-bill-ministers-failing-company-Covid-contract-cancel-it.html
https://www.ft.com/content/272a4903-4a0c-4736-914a-ca5a4a51ba37
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-government-buying-1-million-home-antibody-tests-for-nationwide-surveillance/
https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/abingdon-health/
UK to buy 1m antibody home tests despite accuracy concerns
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/uk-government-to-buy-1m-antibody-tests-despite-accuracy-concerns
Experts say serology tests unreliable, as immunity doesn’t require antibodies
https://www-timesofisrael-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.timesofisrael.com/experts-say-serology-tests-unreliable-as-immunity-doesnt-require-antibodies/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=16117796061035&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.timesofisrael.com%2Fexperts-say-serology-tests-unreliable-as-immunity-doesnt-require-antibodies%2F
"Come bsck with an answer to High viral loads and why odx misrepresented antibody results that isn't so they could boost 85% LFT result to meet UK govs 98% minimum standard"
It's not up to us to disprove your wild, inaccurate and inchoate arguments. As the person positing them , the burden is on you to evidence them.
It's clear from your inane ramblings that you have no clue what you're talking about... they also remind me of another troll's posting style. Green bin time for you.
Show you know nothing of the UK rtc structure. So your opinion isn't valid
Feel free to leave. Your de invited
Come bsck with an answer to High viral loads and why odx misrepresented antibody results that isn't so they could boost 85% LFT result to meet UK govs 98% minimum standard
Funny how they always turn up between market close and pre 8am.
Mr wolf invited me over here - if enough of us ask you to leave will you go?