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£13 this week if trend down continues.
Fmajor, I agree with your point, however if this stock will continue to be this volatile without news, it's going to deter real investors to buy into it, don't get me wrong I am in this stock but you don't see this kind of volatility with other FTSE100 components. GL
Think this is a leverage of this morning's ftse. Up for five mins and then down a few percent. FTSE down .26 today.
Dear traders and investors, welcome to the fabulous AIM market! +5% / -5%, with this volatility this stock shouldn't be allowed on the FTSE100! GL
It doesn't matter what price you wish, it'll do its own thing anyway.
Some people are purely selfish and don’t give a s**t as long as they achieve their buy in price at any cost to other investors
He should rename himself Tediouspaininthearse.
Yep I wasn't patient enough to wait for the full drop. Still live with it though.
Think you need to rename yourself outbutnotdown if you're waiting for 1300
I reckon 1480 is the bounce point, but could be as low as 1440, then a full recovery.
13s coming today. and i'll be back in. wahooooo
indeed, realist, didn't think the SP will melt like that.. GL
should wait for the retest 1440
managed to load more at 1510! GL
Is there an investigation taken place into Muddy waters? It looks like they are manipulating the sp.
A month ago we were at £25, nothing has changed except an article written which seems dodgy at best.
To be fair, the sheer fact of two of the main shareholders divesting such a huge quantity of shares would have had a massive negative impact on the SP. At least this way, it is pretty clear to see why they have divested, and why they sold at the price they did. I’m sure they don’t like it, but they’re still rich, their debts have been settled, and, assuming Freeh report as we expect them to, the SP should bounce back quickly.
It’s still massively cheap - fill yer boots.
We know that professional trading companies are incestuous by nature with everyone knowing everyone else. Whether they are short or long they are all looking to make profit and if if they can help each other to do achieve this on single stock I’m sure they would.
In NMC case , Capital Group looks like one such company who potentially collaborated with MW and some of the big shorters to lend stock collateral to the shorts to allow them to bring the sp down to point where they can take advantage of a margin call and book build and this would allow Capital them to pick up an even bigger stake of Nmc stock at a very cheap price and take a long position. With MW not putting any challenge back post bookbuild, and shorts doing orderly exit, plus the expected news coming out from NMc around the Indy review, the sp would no doubt bounce back up almost as quickly as it went down.
So effectively helping both the shorters and other Investment Houses make a huge profit in just a a few shorts weeks and also allowing Capital Group to make a big profit going long from £12 in a relatively quick timescale with MW keep challenges down to a min to allow for
strong Resurgence in Q1 in time for ye result announcement and nmc coming out with clean bill of health
Effectively the perfect manipulation of a stock to profit both shorter and those who bought big stakes in book build - namely investment houses
As you say, we may never know what truly happened here, but with NMC bring in Freeh to conduct independent review into MW allegation of fraud and mismgmt, it wouldn’t surprise me if Freeh is also invovled in parallel by NMC to investigate manipulation of sp by MW and other colluders
I know this all sound a bit Hollywood, but some of the most intriguing story lines are based on true events.
Let’s see...
Uracca: you make a very interesting observation and theory in your last point as I also believe there has been meticulous planning, collusion and calculation here of certain events that have benefited certain investmt cos at the cost of the majors shareholders
I’ve had a good think about all the events over the past month and my personal thoughts and theories based on reviewing all the news and information that has come out since MW allegations are as follows:
First major question - with the major shareholders originally owning over 80% of shares , how did shorters such as AQR manage to build up such a massive short position of 4.69% in Dec 19 from such a limited free float.
Possible answer: Based on a major holding RNS since book build, Capital Group,was reported to show an increase in holding from an original 5% pre book build to up to 11%. This signifies to me that that Capital Group would have had the collateral in 2019 to potentially lend to shorters such as AQR prior to the MW allegations. I will pick up with Capital Group later, but Black Rock also increase theirtake recently , so they would have been the other potential big donor to shorters for this big shorting of NMC in Dec
Next major question: following MW allegations one of the key red flag call outs amongst other was a £320m debt figure which they alleged was hidden through false accounting practices. MW then proceeded to tweet responses to rebuttals from MW challenging thing like hospital space and also the robustness of doing an Indy review
Now here comes the interesting part for me on this
When the shorters dragged down the sp on run up to bookbuild and then announcement 2 major shareholders selling £370m of shares in NMC and Finablr, to clear indebtedness , it was notable by its absence hat MW chose not make a single comment on this when NMC looked to be on ropes with Sp at lowest for more than 3 years. Why did MW not comment?
Possible answers:
One of the key detailed figures MW gave around they’re was this £320m debt figure. I believe MW based this on researching and already knowing the total amount of debt pledged against shares which were owed to Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. They probably then found out clauses on this pledge that if the sp came down a certain level far enough this would trigger a margin call and thus would likely force a quick sales of shares to call these debts in by the banks. So MW continued challenges to rebuttals post allegations until Sp margin call levels were triggered
Now, with NMC announcing its book build on 15% holding and a call going to IIs to subscribe, we then find out on RNS that there were 3 major holding in company whose holding went up post book build . Norges Bank was one, but the two companies with biggest take up were Capital Group and Goldman’s. Their combined increased stake quoted on RNS equated to them practically meant they hoovered up. most of the 15% book build offered.
I expect Freeh group to report back on cash balances as at 15 December at some point next week. It is a month gone, and NMC have had time to assemble all the paperwork for them to review. All they really need to do is verify the info with each bank. So although not completely certain, that should be quick, and NMC will be very keen to get that ASAP. Any shooters should therefore be looking to close out their shorts as expeditiously as possible next week. I am sure they will attempt to control the price as they do so. We will see whether they can manage it, but I personally expect to see the price rise in anticipation. If Freeh confirm that MW are full of manure, the price will gap up. Although the review will continue into the rest of MWs allegation, such an outcome, if positive, will throw considerable doubt on the rest. I think it will be positive, or NMC would be obfuscating, not hiring a premier league integrity checker.
We will never know, but it could be that MW were the vehicle used to relieve two major holders of a significant part of their holdings at a ridiculously knocked down price. A plan so devious it could be described as oriental.