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Great to see you taking advantage Badeli, I have got my average down to a level that I am happy with now and expecting a decent rerate in price here at NCCL short and long term. The price is moving about with small volume but the market will soon be jumping all over each other to buy this.
I've been saying 'coiled spring' for a little while now. When we get +500k buying pressure it moves this stock +10%. And when we've found a bottom and we get +5m buying pressure we have moved +50%. I'm hoping we get the expected news (historical costs, final study submitted, binding EPC & O&M submissions) plus a tariff update saying 'on track for approval Q4' in the next few weeks. If we get this news I'm expecting 6-7p as the new range, and when we get tariff approval we'll be in double digits, which we've seen before. Tariff is the big key to unlock sp correction as it will signal Moz commitment. After this it will be mainly formalities and perhaps a bid for more or all of the company.
C'mon Hanno, time to get this show on the road!
Wow, imagine me being the only trade showing at 09.27 with my 49870 purchase ..... did I really move the price to buy all the way to 4.80 on my own? What power! Hope to see 100 trades by this time some day soon - that will be fun as new investors arrive once there is more understanding of the scale of the project in which we are invested.
Hi Chrishutch, I am certainly waiting for the promised news like so many others, next couple of weeks should be very positive given the three RNSs we have been told to expect, so I decided to take a bit of profit elsewhere to buy c50,000 more this morning. I had to use Fill or Kill with HL to get them but was successful at 4.6
Judging by the volume, everyone seems to be waiting for the news to land before adding or buying. I would imagine a gap up on news followed by a steady rise.
That's what I want to see!
is deafening. One thing I do like about these situations is the lack of trading shows most people are unwilling to sell below the current 4.5p level. It suggest we've found our new low and ready for the next leg up (he says). Plenty of news in the coming weeks. I wonder when fomo will start kicking in...?
Chrishurch, I certainly hope you're correct. I'd take a double. A treble would be wonderful, but I don't see it happening until we have tariff approval and a very strong indication that FC will still occur in H1 2021. Then we'll have our double digits. GLA
It has been a frustrating hold this one, always feeling like the price should be much, much higher. It has not been able to draw new investors in as the newsflow has been so slow. It now looks like we will get a quick succession of news items all arriving one after the other which potentially should have a high impact on the share price.
For us long term holders this can't come soon enough, but once again on AIM, those of us that spotted the potential this company has are not being rewarded for early investment. Meanwhile, those that are just coming along now are going to reap the rewards of years in a short period of time and get a better price. as we get a cascade of news items.
AIM Investment is 50% research, 10% luck, and 40% timing! - I still think NCCL will double, possibly treble in value in the near term.
Yeah I'm obviously of the same opinion Caterham. I bought and sold nccl on the JDA news. Since then I've come back knowing the story and how long it takes for this stock to get moving. I think a lot of investors are like yourself where they've been waiting for years since the JDA and the sp has languished as a result. If Hanno's to be believed we should be seeing double digits later in the year on tariff approval (hopefully not 2021). Never thought we'd drop back to the mid 4s. My average is 4.1p for 3.75m shares so quite happy with my holding and average providing Hanno can deliver some more pieces of the puzzle this year. Will add more if ARS gets off it's ARSE and delivers their deal that's also overdue. GLA
GGG - I was holding a smidge over 2% up till about a year ago. Lack of action, opportunity cost, sleepless nights, etc, made me reduce to current 0.5%. Now, I think NCCL is looking really good (I won’t say slam dunk because this is AIM!) - the news flow from many independent sources is aligning into a very compelling story. Hanno is on a roll - has just taken longer than expected. I plan to start hoovering shares again.
Man I keep digging on this share. Picked up 125k + 120k for 4.55p today. Now the nervous owner of over 1%. I thought my buys today would lift the SP given we have such low volume, but there's someone who's still offloading in reasonable sized chunks. Probably holder from the 3p capital raise. The thought of this project falling over is making me feel sick given my exposure here. Hopefully the last chance for mid 4's (forever). C'mon Hanno get it done! GLA!!!
Great deal of sense in what you say HoopedBaron,
However...I do believe that behind he scenes, they are further ahead then the news simple indicates. For example, with the Transmission Infrastructure around our Tete plant now being implemented (i.e. having reached FC, and now with Moz an Malawi moving to get construction started), it would be appear the project has been approved before we have tariff news and reached FC ourselves -- remembering that we supported that Transmission infrastructure.
What I am getting at is that the uncertainty we live with isn't the level of uncertainty Moz, World Bank, Germany/ KWF, CMEC, NCCL etc. are having to work within. My view is that the transmission infrastructure and subsequent power puchase agreemnent between Moz and Malawai (i.e. Interconnector Line) were very possibly a pre-requisite for CMEC, before things could progress. It would explain now, inexplicably, the timeline to reach FC suddenly strecthed by another year, last year some time (under agreement of certain conditions, including the Interconnector Line reaching FC, power purchase agreement between certain respective parties etc) - to maje sure, infrastructure and significant market/ buyers in place.
There are big BIG pointers to us not keeping th whole 40%.
If there is to be a buyout, I don't think we necessrily have to wait till supposed Tariff/ FC. We may be further ahead than we realise, all in my own opinion.
Dont believe it can happen until contract tariffs etc have been signed up with EDM etc...Pre build at the earliest.
Any earlier could risk our good relationship with the regional govt agencies and could be detrimental to our future solar expansion plans if they think we are only into things short term.
More likely we will see CMEC take a significant slice of our 40%. We would keep an agreed % interest in the project and get a free carry for the build costs.
How this plays out will be interesting as investors.
Will NCCL be bought outright and our shares are agreed at ?pence.
Or will NCCL survive with a % and any deal is then subject to market valuations and manipulation long term?
Will NCCL be valued correctly so we can realise true worth??
I dont know how this will develop. Think i prefer a straight buyout with the solar stuff diverted to a new company. More certain for all involved.
With such potential, I just hope we investors dont get shafted in the details.
A sale price of 40p per share equates to a market cap of c.£140m. Very realistic in my view. That's just for 300MW.
Now, according to the EDM Integrated Power Plan document, seems pretty clear that Moz intend for 1200MW to be coming out of Tete. If NCCL can negotiate on the basis of this, then 60p has got to be realistic.
well if 40% of a billion dollar power plant isn't worth multiples of where we currently are i'll be fuming hahaha
Hopefully at multiples of where we currently are!
Very likely with the nature of these power projects. No benefit for CMEC in having NCCL in this partnership beyond FID. That is fine for NCCL, once there is revenue certainty the value of the project is pretty much fixed and its clear what price NCCL's stake should command.
I'd be more suprised if they didn't. They'll drive a hard bargain but even at a bargain price you're looking at a huge profit (10 bag or so from this price) - that's my opinion anyways :p
What are the prospects of NCCL being taken over by CMEC or another? And at what stage?
I would certainly take 40p
Analysts say 13p, that was back then, without the SHSA TS signed and without Historic Costs confirmed.
Now, lets look at this specifically:
"There is sufficient coal in Ncondezi’s licence for a series of similar power stations, adds Canaccord, with export potential as well as Mozambique’s neighbours also chronically short of power but the plan is to build a 300 MW plant, supplied by 1.5mln tons of coal annually."
a) We know that that the additional plants to the 300MW, add up to a planned 1200MW, formally/ officially stated within EDMs Integrated Plan.
b) We know that 'export' to 'Mozambique's neoubhours' is happening, as that Interconnector Line between the Matambop. Tete and Malawi has reached Financial Close (Germany, World Bank and Norway paying $127m!).
Clues being dropped all the time, including/ like, 'other proposed power plants' having 'fallen away' etc. and that,
"#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid"
Looking like we should be learning lots very soon!
What the analysts say
Analyst at broker Canaccord Genuity said Ncondezi’s future lies beyond its current development of a thermal power station in Mozambique and in off-grid solar generation.
The broker, which initiated coverage in May with a ‘speculative buy’ rating and 13p price target on the shares, said that the short-term picture will be dominated by the 300Mw power project in Tete.
“The cost of solar is already highly attractive compared to off-grid diesel power, and with this cost expected to keep falling sharply we see customers moving increasingly to onsite off-grid generation,” the broker said.
There is sufficient coal in Ncondezi’s licence for a series of similar power stations, adds Canaccord, with export potential as well as Mozambique’s neighbours also chronically short of power but the plan is to build a 300 MW plant, supplied by 1.5mln tons of coal annually.
[Please do excuse the irrelevant elements I've copied across...]
Ncondezi Energy aims to fill power gap in Mozambique
The project is in the heart of Tete, Mozambique’s most rapidly industrialising region and a hub for power generation.
Total capital expenditure is expected to be US$1.1bn and once completed it will be one of the largest generation plants in the country.
In July 2019, a joint development agreement was signed with Chinese firm CMEC and US group General Electric.
Ncondezi Energy (LON:NCCL) will look to retain a 40% equity stake in the project.
On the share register are the African Finance Corporation, a specialist Africa infrastructure fund, and Polenergia that together hold approximately 30% of the company’s issued shares.
Separately, Ncondezi has a joint venture deal with GridX Africa Development with a view to building captive solar and battery storage solutions for commercial and industrial use.
GridX has 15 solar and battery storage projects, of which six are at an advanced stage.
How it is doing
In January, Ncondezi submitted an updated financial model for a 300MW coal-fired power station to its partners for review.
In March it submitted a firm tariff proposal to the Mozambican Government and state-owned Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM), the last milestone to start formal tariff negotiations with EDM, which will be completed in the second quarter.
In August, it submitted the Transmission Integration Study for the project to Electricidad de Moçambique, following the updated tariff proposal.
Final results for 2019 showed the year closed with US$722,000 in the bank after US$769,000 was booked in joint venture investment expenditure during the financial year and US$58,000 spent on power development.
The coffers were topped up with a £650,000 capital raise in May.
What the boss says: Hanno Pengilly, chief executive
"It's a fantastic step forward that we have submitted the final draft of the Transmission Integration Study to EDM for review,” said chief executive Hanno Pengilly in August.
“Following the updated tariff proposal in March 2020 this report was required and has been updated with proprietary information from EDM.
“The results look encouraging and have identified a number of optimisations which have the potential to improve transmission line cost, strengthen the grid and facilitate future transmission expansion plans. Tariff negotiations are continuing in parallel and are progressing positively," he added.
Finances for Ncondezi agreed and put in place
Permits agreed and construction gets underway in Mozambique
Expansion of GridX solar project
JDA timetable for Ncondezi
You're right Alex. I just picked up another 150k at 4.95p. That's it for me - I now own 1% of the company so feel a little exposed right now. Hanno better deliver!
that at some point this month we will be hearing the news on the historical costs audit!
In fact the CEO mentioned in the last proactive that he is expecting to be able to release 3 pieces of key news this month. tick tock!
Thank you, always happy to share ideas if requested. As it happens I spent time today researching the company further starting from the website and following links -personally I don't think it has started yet, I am very impressed by the management and their focus. The first RNS will be an inflection point.
Back to NCCL which I think has far more potential. I continue to top up and am quietly waiting for the series of RNS announcements which will define its progress and begin to reflect its true value. I find it extraordinary that it remains under the radar of the wider market but that will soon change and, sadly, the herd will arrive chasing their daily rainbow.