The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Matt you don't need recession for there to be bad debts, you have only to note Thomas Cook. The banks have always had periods when they make large provisions for bad debts, but they were softened for them because interest rates gave good margins which is not the case today.
As an aside Metro would do well to grab accounts where large balances are held in current accounts, i.e. the oldies, because the money is 'free' and then allow the bank to lend the money out.
we haven't even entered recession and major banks are crying increases of bad non performing loans.
results here next week will provide more clarity on things like the above.
Timescale, there is no reason to believe 2/3 years. I want to see 500 but as people have pointed out there may be a call for more money watering down the sp. Whilst it is not a mature bank, obvious, but just consider what happened with Lloyds, RBS etc - recoveries took more like 10 years. Long term means that, 2/3 years used to be viewed as short/medium term and 5 years plus long term. I'm a long term believer, and short term dreamer.
branson, of course they can dispose of their loan book but who would buy it at par. they'd be forced to sell it as a discount as what happens with normal disposals from banks.
Right now in a climate where banks such as Lloyds are seeing increasing bad debts I think they'd struggle to offload any assets off at any fair price but thats my opinion.
They have another 9 branches planned
As for 2 billion in deposits, that was earlier this yr and mainly business accounts. Retail deposits are protected through EU law up to £85ks each. Published data in bond prospectus shows that more than £2 billion has flowed back.
MattWales, need to research more mate, otherwise looks like position posting!
LTD is coming down rapidly from 109% to 104% bond prospectus to 100% by Xmas. £350m was for MREL, a regulatory capital buffer. They can do disposals such as of the buy to let loan book to raise another 500m etc. to bring down their RAWA. The argumentation in your post is flawed.
shorters highlight there are problems with the balance sheet and financial risk of a companies profitability.
It is impossible for them to destroy a company bad management does that.
Everyone is screaming this is like a major bank.
It's akin to Paragon which went through a monumental disaster when they needed cash in an emergency rights issue before doubling in share price over the past 10 years. Metro bank needs cash. if you think raising over £350m to pay out £33 odd million coupon out annually is enough I cant for the life of me understand where your maths is at.
Loans currently outweigh deposits and sure new deposits have come in but the damage of £2bn leaving has been done. One sniff of more trouble and this seriously has the potential of going like Northern rock with depositors running for the exit.
The company can tell you what they like but the facts are they need £33m plus extra profits just to stand still for 2020 results because that 9.5% will be paid irrespective of anything else.
Yes they'll invest the money they recently raised in treasury bonds yada yada but expanding their loan book is going to be extremely problematic without more cash injection here.
I could be very well wrong but I foresee another rights issue within 6 months just for them to expand their loan portfolio alone without any further expansion of branches.
Great reply 2-3 years before its at double figures again
It's to me earth shattering bonkers that people think that somehow the shorters just short cos they can and are manipulative and exist to defraud people like a grand stitch up?? Seriousssly?? The reason this share continues to underperform is owing to an absence of any meaningful buyers. There is no demand for these shares in relation to short sellers who believe that the price will continue to weaken in the absence of any buyers. It's very simple and also very clear that this share will underperform until there is new mgt and a direction which is what the activists are provoking. Proper Action. You should thank them in the long term as without them the appalling mgt in place would have continued and really led to a more dire outcome. Holding for the LT is best as it will recover but sadly it will take a couple of years not months IMO.
Yes it helps to remind yourself why you bought. Looking on here too much can add to concerns if you lose your sense of humour. I have looked at the charts available and can see an upside IMO and personally believe it will get back to 300 and beyond but know that no one can promise WHEN.
Why did we all invest in metro? We weighed up the positive and negatives and thought it was worth the risk. What has changed? Since I invested, only things for the better, a £350 million loan undertaken! Fantastic news, Vern leaving, Vern talking possibility of taking it private, that underpins £2 per share, all of previous problems being addressed. All very positive, the only fly in the ointment is the shorts, but without them, most of us wouldn't be here! So let's not moan and get too spooked, we know how they can manipulate it to their advantage even though most can't understand how it works, but it does, and well! I'm in deep but that is my choice, I won't come on here talking suicide or blaming anyone else, we all know there is no one else to blame but ourselves. Now, heads up, think why you invested, I'm sure this will come good and the 3rd quarter results will show us the forward looking plans are working and our investment will grow not shrink. My thinking is the £350m was raised by at least having a peak at how the 3rd quarter was going.