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So you remain a holder here Viveka and of similar size to earlier in your journey here?
Where do you guess the s/p goes from current 3p ish levels ?
I've seen mtph as a trading share for a year now and see it more that again going forward.
Thanks for that II article link, interesting.. and that Eddie Stobart logs being taken over would be convenient for the Woodford unwind line got me thinking, again, that it makes more and more sense for the Chinese investor(s) here just to bid for the whole company soon. They've got 50% ish already and could get that Woodford holding backing any half decent bid readily to get any unwind done in a quick/smooth fashion etc.. only need 75% of all shares backing of any bid to succeed I think ?
My GUESS is unless there is meaningfully positive RNS next week this goes into the 2's p and maybe ticks on down slowly but surely on no news towards decently into them. That would be sad.
The firm saving raise warrants raise at 50 p was fine by me ...but then the - Armistice - warrants recently at 4.8p was truly terrible in a number of ways imho.. I seriously thought about selling out here completely off the back of that.. (the earlier are now worthless in my mind and we could be in a race to the bottom for next raises in terms of both s/p and warrant levels and the raise after ..etc.. so good news asap is crucial to try and avoid this.. )
I thought about selling a bunch more of my now small position last week towards putting that into the kitty to buy a lot pf these in the 2p's, if it goes there. Instead I did a plan b small top up in early 3's p.. thinking now I should have gone with plan a ..
I'm hoping II block buyers of the woodford shares would, at worst, come out of the woodwork in the 2'sp... PS : I read that 3 months notice had to be given before unwinds of positions in Woodford Equity Income.... does that mean sell down can't start til jan ? Not good if that is the case... (but we still don't know for certain how many of the shares are in that Equity income fund vrs Patient Cap trust )
Brilliant response Viveka, thanks. I’m under the influence now and so will come back on this in more detail later
Ps I’m b’lls deep in Amerisur .. and far too many other oilers too, and the read across from that recommended offer to the rest I hold is depressing squared )
Thank you for the acknowledgement, NicetoMichu. I’m glad you find the posts helpful. I try to stick to the facts – although there has been an odd mistake here and there. Sorry, I don’t get the workings of AIM. Does anyone? The volatility is horrendous. 90% down with FARN. Then 100% up. That can only happen on AIM! Most of them are momentum plays. And without momentum they just drift down. I was waiting for a decent return on AMER, and look what happened there. I once read on one these boards that “you don’t invest in AIM stocks, you trade them.” Unfortunately, from my experience, there’s a lot of truth in that. It’s a big shame because it can call into question the whole integrity of the AIM market. When I look at the photographs and videos of the people that run and manage some of the companies on AIM, I ask myself a simple question: ‘would I buy a used car from them?’ The answer is often a resounding ‘No’. That’s all I want to say on this matter.
As for Midatech, Stephen Stamp does know the workings of AIM. He was CEO of ERGO until January of this year, when he stood down for health reasons. I still think the fallout from the Woodford wind-up is having a negative impact here. A good article about share overhang appeared on ii at the end of last month: ‘The Woodford AIM shares patient investors should monitor’. The link is:
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/woodford-aim-shares-patient-investors-should-monitor-ii509564
I welcome the arrival of Armistice Capital. They are a health care specialist hedge fund and won a US Hedge Fund Performance Award in 2017. I keep having to remind myself of the fundamental science and the very promising clinical trial data for MTX110 and MTD201 to justify holding Midatech. I believe these will prevail in the end.
I feel next week is a very important week for this share.. it needs to find strength from somewhere or else it can go meaningfully lower again imho.
Viveka, I'd love to hear more from you, especially if you get the workings of AIM near as well as you get the devil of the detail on this share generally ….hopefully you're listening and respond? (I feel for eg that the CFO of Mtph doesn't have a clue of the workings of AIM.. why would he really, not least as Neil Woodford certainly didn't..)
What update will that be? I thought trial results weren't due till end of 2019/start of 2020 so more likely December or after
I'd suspect RNS or at least an update over the next two weeks. My gut say's its' time for a meaningful release and update, so this is just a hunch of mine. One such news update over the U.S side will be yet another letter from the SEC and NAZ stating that their SP is once again too low and they will be delisted if they don't push it higher. But alas hoping that the news will drift it higher in the medium term. Good luck to everyone, we could use some news.
I'm optimistic Mtph will get to complete its sundry in process drug trials here too Silver Knight.. so we will survive until then at the very least imho.. and with the backers we now have it's a decently better overall picture here than it was a year ago.. and the mkt cap does reflect that, in fairness.. the dilution that has happened and is to come is a fundamental issue to the s/p - even semi - thriving in the future though and that's a huge concern to me, including II's having very low average versus Pi's further complicating things a lot.. that said If this goes into the 2's p i'll top up significantly towards trying to keep my average price staying even vaguely in touch of the market price.. very hopefully it doesn't and I don't have to top up meaningfully further.
On a broad front I see that only the dividend paying shares in my portfolio are in the money. Many others are decent companies with good prospects but people are relentlessly selling them off. Given the backing of some hefty and strong shareholders I am optimistic that we will survive here but it might be a slow process. Still averaging 9.5p but don't feel the need to put more in urgently.