Sapan Gai, CCO at Sovereign Metals, discusses their superior graphite test results. Watch the video here.
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Some Warren Buffett quotes to keep in mind atm.
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.
Just buy something for less than it’s worth.
Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.
Agreed - primarily I thought that was to get the facility over the line plus the expansion into the recycling. You'd think they would have done it back in November after the interims, or even in early january if MDA not signed by end of 2023. So for me it isn't clear that it is currently necessary. I'd need to see recycling production (which should cover general outgoings of the whole company once commerical at 100t/year - but that is tricky as we don't quite know (i dont think) exactly what magents are being created (price depends on strength and type). Depends on incoming i should think.
https://www.metal.com/price/Rare-Earth/Rare-Earth-Magnets
looking at CNY120-380 divide 9 GBPCNY (about 9 CNY/GBP) is about 13.3-42GBP/kilo
at 20t/yr (1.67t/month) this is GBP22,000-GBP70,000 per month
at 100t/yr (8.33t/month) this is GBP111000-GBP350,000 per month
minus opex. maybe opex equal price scrap recyclers pay to get it recycled.
Short term goal is to get that facililty up and running and an interim update on that would be welcome in my view. Aim is to start at 20t/y vols then in a matter of weeks/couple of months ramp up to 100t/yr volumes. By Q2 2024 I expect the I expect 50k odd and by Q3 around 250k a month.
MyIPA
yes I understand the formation of the comapny and Cotec, but I think, and more importantly, the market believes, that funding is an issue and imminent. End H1 is very optimistic imv. It may be that other avenues for funding are explored which would be great but eveything comes at a cost- be it a reduced percentage etc. The last raise was around this time last year £3.5 m at £0.125p. I will add when clarity is provided.
Traady
Right. soo.... we knew all of this back in November. It isn't a surprise. Should be enough until end H1 assuming no sales from birmingham and no cash injection from JV partner. Dont forget on all of this we were expecting the MDA by the end of the year at the latest. But this company isn't just Songwe it is the recycling tech of which we have a serious JV with COTEC for (which wasn't known about at the time of the 30 sep interims).
GLA
There is not a lot the Bod can say about the MDA. However, I do think the Bod should be communicating, given decline in the SP and continued speculation over funding. I have had no reply to emails to Tavistock or Bod. Yes the BoD have done good deals previously but the market is a different place now. Even a 100% uplift on a good MDA/news would only just put us in double figures.
People will speculate as to funds and this is due to the last update quarter last year:
The Company’s consolidated cash balance at 30 September 2023 was $2,279,766 and working capital was
$1,095,734. The Company is reviewing future funding alternatives to provide investment for ongoing and new
projects and to provide working capital sufficient to fund Mkango’s operations in the 12 months from the date of
signing the financial statements.
Https://mwnation.com/us-urges-investment-in-mining-tourism-to-spur-growth/
Focus on implementation and not just chatter
FWIW - I expect Neodymium to bottom out with about another 10% drop - very timely.
Why would they comment upon market forces, a quarterly update is due and provides a management summary of the current position. Retail investment panic, if used as a barometer for RNS on aim would result in a flood of RNS every other day in these market conditions.
52% from December, it rose 50% on MDA speculation, with the minister saying by Dec 31st. No one shout for an RNS at that point. It then dropped back.
Lets look at this month, it has been purely cash position assumption again by RI, not seeing the volumes of II leaving the building only RI. Team with this market conditions outside of anything tech and the new lows in recent time of REE then you can see why the market isnt excited.
It will change. Do you really think this is worth 12million pounds as a business? Good god! Hypromag alone will be worth x3 this is 3 years time.
I personally dont want them to try an finance a mine yet, unless as they again say in the last update talks with bankers and off takers are continuing and are advanced.
LWHL - no company does what you are proposing, absolutely no company. UNLESS it happens in a single day which it hasn't. Mining, RE metal prices (and raw) are highly affected by chinese production and the general global trend. Being able to recycle this material is a key step and I think why MKA will prove to be a success.
If you want to know why the likely reason of recent declines then you can look at these:
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/terbium-prices/
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/neodymium-prices/
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/dysprosium-prices/
https://strategicmetalsinvest.com/praseodymium-prices/
which are not yet related to the company but we are in the 'Rare Earth' bucket for investors and so get affected by macro/sector effects.
GLA
LewisW - I guess in mining "regular" can be at seldom as every 6 months! With Hypromag and building a facility then I would think every few months increasing until fully at production then noise for that facility will reduce because it'll then just be a nice profit line in the P&L. More facilities more news.
Looking at the last year or two we've had decent news at least every couple of months. So I think at this stage I would expect to hear something every couple of months. March 3rd would be 2 months since last news.
This . Exactly this.
Well, how about a statement today noting the 52% decline in share price since December, 28% in just the last month, and that the BOD know of no reason for this movement? Furthermore noting some speculation about the cash position of the company, and so giving an update and outline to this end? Something along those lines would do.
How often is regular? Weekly? Saying the same thing over and over isnt a great strategy.
Sorry, last post cut off.
Its all panic, low volume, noise! See through it and look at the assets and potential. SP is irrelevant unless you dont follow the golden rule of not investing anything you cannot afford to lose. Putting a timescale on this type of operation is ridiculous, especially the mine. Most take 20 years from explore to produce.
The market is in pain, the commodity is in pain. It doesn't mean this wont change, and for the better.
For the investor from 2016, what is your timeline? I personally would have taken some off the top to make this a free investment given it went from sub 2p to 30p+ in that timeline. You are surely 100% up now or have you added more? what is your avg.
Mine is just now below Will Dawes last investment point.
I have said it on other share chat boards - AIM CEO's need to be in regular communication with the market. Only a small amount of capital finds its way into AIM stocks each year, and so each AIM operation is essentially competing for this small allocation of cash.
Sure, actions and outcomes are what matters, but in the pre-revenue stage, high visibility increases the likelihood of shareholder and potential shareholder interest and confidence = better raise prices/funding terms and conditions etc. Even more so, in a credit environment like this one. It really is as simple as that.
Copy that
CristalB - I don't think LewisW was directing that at you, I read it as more in general. I know you've been here a while and your posts have been balanced - that's why history here is useful!.
I agree Bonker, this is so artifical it stinks
50k at 5.44p mine. All noise at
Daily RSI heading towards 20 now and oversold on the weekly - she's not likely to stay down here for very long.
Short term - ? I have been here since 2016 mate... almost at my 8th year. My frustration is the lack of demonstrable progress with the main asset, and thus fund raising and dilution.
LWHL - this is why I want to be kept up to date with the processing plant and progress there. MDA is out of our hands but surely progressing that at pace so we can get a significant income stream going is best.
Alternative to a raise of course, which you may know, is that we may bargain some small % of the JV away to COTEC for some funds. I believe we (this BB) also covered this topic a few months ago if I recall.
Such low volume and yet dropped 20% in a few days (6.25ish to now 5.25ish). Just not going to get spooked as that is ridiculous.
Lewis: If they have enough cash until July 2024 at the time of print, based on what you have quoted, then the BOD need to have something in place PDQ, otherwise it is going to almost certainly follow the bunch of other AIM outfits that have recently destroyed their shareholders with heavily discounted placings, where their share prices had already taken a battering before funding news.
If they do follow suit, then short termers and traders are the only ones who are potentially going to profit here, like the above examples. The loyal investors will be fleeced (been there myself elsewhere and got several of their rip off T-shirts).
We will find out one way or the other eventually I guess.
One man's de-ramper is another man's truth-speaker. Sure, you do get bad actors on these chat boards (almost always the aggressive language types), but I think most of us are genuine.
And anyone who has been around the AIM block a few times would know such things are entirely possible, even with the good tiddlers. Happens more often than not actually, so hardly likely a 'lucky' finger in the air comment.
It was not me who said 5.5p, but back in late January, when the SP was mid 8's, I said I did not see much support until the 6's and for this reason, had pulled my buy order.
Did I think we would go to the 5's? In truth, I thought even 4's were possible, with continued radio silence from the BOD - although I had hoped for some news before now.
I did not mention 4's then, as I did not want to come across as a FUD spreader.
I do not care anymore, and will not let the bad actors silence or limit my opinions.
Genuine posters can believe what they want of my intentions, or those of anyone else. These chat boards are not for financial advice and IMO nobody would buy or sell off the back of reading stuff here regardless.
I did not sell up and take the loss back then, because, presumably like many still holding now, positive MDA news would likely see the SP rocket in the blink of an eye. And you do not buy these types without giving plenty of scope for sizeable moves to the downside (or upside). High risk. High reward potential.
Anyway, I am not adding during this period, but not selling the small holding either. Same as before. Will take a view when we find out what exactly is going on with the cash runway. News on the MDA would almost feel like sighting a unicorn, but that would turn this ship around rapidly. GLA genuine posters.
What specifically do you want an update on? MDA is in Malawi hands, not MKA and MKA have never set the timeline despite x2 mining minister promises of done deal by x.
Hypromag update is in the last update in January and last management summary for Sept results.
Cash speculation is purely on these boards and RI panic. If you look at last update on the surface it looks like cash burn of 1.5 mill but if you dig down that is primarily exceptional costs for cotec and environment study with metal studies too. Strip that all out and you get 300-500k burn rate. Management stated back in July that they had 12 months cash.
I know as observers the sp seems important but frankly it isn't at this stage of the investment unless you are short term or a trader.
I continue to invest on a monthly basis.
Well Songwe MDA really is out of our hands. All in the hands of Malawi. I'm checking google daily for any news articles(!) but nothing to suggest it will fail. Why would it? Who else will get that mine up and running. Certainly won't be Malawi.
Got an update on COTEC 3rd Jan - all good there.
Would like an update to confirm end of commission of infrastructure for the Birmingham plant to progressing to commercial volumes (to start at 20t/yr vols sometime Q2 2024 moving to 100t/yr vols Q3 2024), and progress on Germany Hypromag facility and the Polish Songwe concentrate processing plant, and progress on US Hypromag facility.
Not looking at any other mines MKA have because best to focus on one thing at a time
In the scheme of things things should be progressing but we can't really shout for news. I am not going to capitulate there is too much going for it.
GLA