The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
This is the case with all products in demand, however, it is going to be a good decade away in my view.
This is why the recycle is a great play. I hold rainbow, pensana and this. All suffering yet all unique and advanced.
Also would add, ree are not just EV/magnets. They are in everything. Tech is a banker gor the future along with medical in times of macro strife
Munchy back to his identity crisis. Stick them away for 12 months and see where we are if you are in until the end.
Let's get one thing straight... this is not a company or Bod that likes to screw around like a LOT of AIM BoDs. They're getting all necessary work done and consistently working to MKA thee company to be proud of!
The lack of comms could simply be that they're so close to MDA and financing, I mean like days away!... and the RNS they want to put out is one to put a smile on all our faces!
Excellent summary CristalBall.. I'm also assuming a small raise to get us through. I still have a lot of faith in the company. The facts speak for themselves and apart from the bad PR side of things, (which I believe is mostly due to the fact the BoD is as honest as f**k and a bunch of nerds, and PR is not in their vein of expertise), everything else stands as it is.. Solid!
The going concern declaration features on a huge percentage of AIM microcap stocks because it is required under GAAP.
All of the risks you have stated I have been aware of for 5 + years (and form part of the investment decision) I don’t think nationalisation is likely .
From a macro perspective- the risk of product substitution is more concerning - if the market finds a better permanent magnet motor for EVs etc - we are screwed . This is more likely, the higher the price of REE stays .
Any number of factors could be delaying it, the board may even be delaying it themselves if it suits their financial position.
Fact is, there’s tons of minerals in the ground and there’s very few upcoming mines this far in the advanced stages of commercialisation. Add to this the delicate relationship with US/China and they’re ability to simple switch off RRE supply in response to Taiwan weapons packages and RRE prices will simply explode, this won’t sit well with anyone that needs the materials and especially if they have the cash to offer MKA a good deal!
We’ve all been effected by Russias monopoly so expect governments to wade in heavy handed to secure minerals to continue building economic strength with as little disruption as possible.
No.
No positives.
You need to calm down.
GL.
U think I’m going to sell
Now ?? Really ?
I’m here until the end fella. This either swims or I go down with the ship.
All I did was point out the possible outcomes of what could be happening behind closed doors.
After all it does make you wonder if they wanted to raise money why haven’t they by now ?
Is it wrong for me to question my investment in to a company for not acting to protect the shareholders or its price ?
Someone sold?
GL.
Great post. I’m looking at it like this with all worst case situations only …
- the MDA is not being agreed because Malawi want too much.
- Talaxis hold 33% and are stopping any proposal that effects their holding.
- they can’t raise the funds by placing or private institution because of the lack of clarity.
- huge disagreement internally with the bod / governments and Malawi all involved in major discussions.
- Malawi could turn around and seize or nationalise the asset
- bod are trying to negotiate a takeover but who would buy it with Malawi playing hardball.
- there is no reason for institutional investors not to buy in now but there is a major stumbling block that has caused us to drop to 11p and it’s not the general markets.
- it needs to hold here or we are in big trouble. Management have proven to make shrewd deals although timing has been an issue in the past. So management silence tells you there is a major problem behind the scenes.
Just my worst case thoughts on what’s going on. If we fall again today then the management have given up acting on what they stated. How can they go from employing a cfo and a £500k investment from Cotec to then saying it’s a going concern or the company ?
Why could they announce a placing when sp was at 17p ? Do it at 12p with a 30% discount ?
Looks like they can’t do a placing as non of the current institutions will take part and they know private investors might not stump up the cash.
Lots to ponder but something definitely is not right and please let’s all stop using the MACRO excuse.
Let’s see what today brings.
I would also add, look at the other report and how many different icrons are in the fire at mkango.
It strengthens the finance case and takeover case. Market cap is peanuts.
Someone would pay 75mill in my view for a true value, at least. In its current state with no forward thought on potential
Some thoughts from last night -
1 - I genuinely believe this drop is just due to the market being spooked by where the mine funding is going to come from and ergo, the MDA - obviously chicken and egg to an extent . I still strongly believe that the US are going to come knocking . We don’t need working cap funding . We survived for years on scraps .
2 - when you read the final page of the results - we WILL transfer exploration licenses into mining licences. (The auditors wouldn’t allow this certainty of language unless it was contracted) and
3- DFS for an ‘integrated’ project - is mentioned once MDA signed AND after Pulawy feasibility study complete = much bigger prize . Could be what the investors / acquirers are waiting for….
4 - the 500k USD p/m cash burn - I assume this is linked to the completion of the DFS ? So we would now revert to historic cash use levels - e.g. <100k pm
5 - we need c250m to finance a mine with 2.1bn cash flow .
6 - price action suggests a small fund raise to take us COMFORTABLY through the next 12 months while we sort the next steps out .
7 - takeover becoming more and more likely.
Dumbo, a placing is incoming as they are running out of cash.
That’s why the SP Dropped.
>>normally assume the larger investors know what's coming so why didn't they exit earlier?
Silly assumption, but if it was true you would assume they are selling now because they know what is coming.
Reality is, people sell and buy when they want to.
Presumably you've no more idea than I have re what's going on - for all we know it's just the de rigeur planned stop-loss hunt you get on AIM before it multiplies on whatever news is already known out there.
As we can never know the reality behind the scenes then indicators like RSI in the teens is somewhat helpful in that regard - oversold on the weekly now too so there's plenty of scope for a long-term drive back up.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that whopping IH&S play out over the rest of the year to put this back at c40p via 25p with a bottom around here somewhere - that $500m+ NPV is looking tasty @ 25m mcap - God knows EVs/Rare Earths have the ability to pull a Uranium soon ...
Thank god that's over! (For today anyway)... looks like AIM forgot to bring the lube again.
Who knows what's going on, what we do know is we have a piece of land full of the good stuff and unless someone came over the weekend and dug it all up, that hasn't changed. I'm staying positive on this despite the Royal Roger-ing.
Bonker. This now has bog all to do with rsi mate. If it’s in the teens then investor rsi is close to zero.
Super. If it was 10p then they would have already announced it. Why management are taking so long to address this tells me there’s more to it than meets the eye. I’m with tufftrafer with this. Something greater is going on behind the scenes.
What happened to Cotec adding at current price for another £500k ? Obviously something has changed in a big way. Tomorrow will be very telling ….rns is a must for me otherwise I’m just going to write off this investment and never buy shares again. How on earth is this even remotely possible ? Company has to say something this week. It’s a must.
I had a small holding here and topped up substantially today. The drop is extreme and with seemingly no basis. The resources are there and are going to be increasingly valuable in the near future. The SP is giving it away at this point - I guess some investors have walked away with substantial losses, but equally someone is going to come in and take advantage of their pessimism.
Given the trading patterns today it is going to be absolutely fascinating to unpick this story when it all plays out. I still feel like there is a shift of power going on internally. I am at a 60% loss and gripping onto my spuds like there’s no tomorrow.
See what happens but the daily RSI is in the teens now - last time they dumped her this hard she 10x bagged over the next 12 months.
If you're staying in to see the value play out then this is quite the averaging down opp.
Worth checking shortly if there are any delayed large sales. If there is a placing it looks to me to be at 10p
Who knows but like everything else on AIM I wouldn't take a blind bit of notice of any trades personally.
This is now extraordinarily oversold - it's not likely to stay down here for very long - wherever "here" is.
The trade at 15.21pm puzzles me. I normally assume the larger investors know what's coming so why didn't they exit earlier? Seems more like a panic reaction than a considered decision
Don’t know who said “ taken behind a shed n given a thrashing “. It’s more like being stripped in the middle of the m25 and given something we have never seen before
Anyway, screw those guys - going large @ 11s