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A comfort blanket is a good way of describing it! No risk, no reward
R, suppose that’s what some are looking for , a comfort blanket so they go with consensus ! Like you I see a differing story which will see loop Virtually debt free as it enters 2021 with controlled costs and new footprint in both product range and sales capacities ! Add methanol to your motor and little changes apart from the power output .... that’s what’s happened here as 2021 will still be dominated by covid in some way
Hey Frac, LOOP seem pretty afraid to put out any forecasts after getting burned so badly last year. Combined with the MIFID rules and the size of the company means LOOP has very limited broker cover, there just isn't really any incentive for them, and therefore no accurate consensus. Have you seen if LOOP's nomad Panmure has ever contributed anything?
It looks like there are 2 broker opinions, one with a target price of 270p (which was increased from 225p after the half year results) and one at 324p.
The effect of this is that if you think that the consensus has been undercooked then you will have an advantage over all those investors out there who are relying on consensus feeding into their stock screens rather than doing their own research. Consensus is giving a P/E of 12.8 rising to 23.8 in 2021. My own forecast gives a P/E of 9.2 falling to 8.8 in 2021. But WTFDIK?
R ..... Pleased to see you agree with my post over the weekend suggesting the Analysts do some serious work !!! Just to add a little more , the projections Loop gave in their half year update really gives no known financial account of the team's migration other than the knowledge of a lower but fixed recurring income .... However the detail suggests this will then encompass a greater gross income per contract as it takes in current non loop use which could be significant in itself but the projected cloud based growth demonstrates the possible fixed income contracts that are possible !!!! Fast forward 219 significant leads in 45 days ....well a year will see at least 1000+, project the income and there plenty of evidence for this in some of the current American cloud call companies where they're on it and ...... Well once Trump and Biden have fought it out I'm all in
Suspect we will get further updates , when net debt is zero and maybe a update on Microsoft teams
Progressive released an update after the half year with a $1m REDUCTION to their 16th July 2020 revenue forecast and an unchanged 2021 forecast. So despite the Teams deal, the top 5 global law firm win and the Cable and wireless deal the only changes that they could come up with was to adjust for the GBPUSD fx rate and to reduce revenue for the migration to lower priced fixed-price contracts. But with no impact on gross margin. So lower prices but higher margins? Ummmmm
I guess this means the LOOP management are sticking to their story that revenue is impossible to forecast accurately for this year with a little over 3 months to go. I really hope that Progressive aren't being paid much for these updates that regurgitate the RNS as they contribute nothing to any deeper analysis of the company.
"Forecasting LoopUp’s performance remains a challenge – the main LoopUp Meetings business is continuing to see good volumes, but the RNS describes an ongoing migration of large customers to fixed-price licence deals (with long-term commitments, but lower pricing); Event by LoopUp is growing strongly, and the Teams business is nascent but full of potential. We make a fractional (£1m) reduction to FY20 revenues to reflect these factors and the recent weakness of the US Dollar (which impacts the Sterling translation of revenue) but leave our profit and cash expectations unchanged.
LoopUp has delivered on a very strong H1, highly profitable and enormously cash generative. We will look for further evidence in coming months around the long-term shape of the LoopUp Meetings revenue base as volumes stabilise, and the style and pace of Teams revenue growth as the business pipeline converts. "