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Thank you Seis. That would certainly put full year 2021 well and truly in its place. Imagine if Rhodium gets any where near it’s forecast on trading economics of £24k per Oz by the end of this quarter.
Yes, we pretty much have 100% on everything except Elephant which is now 80%.
We'll convert the Mopani decommissioned refinery into a fully functioning one that will also be able to process Cobalt from Elephant. The cobalt at Elephant is 0.08%. the Cobalt at Roan is 0.05% which is still substantial given its high value.
As requested Mikie, here's a more optimistic forecast!
https://tinyurl.com/2y7nux2d
This assumes PGM and Copper prices and costs had remained unchained since H2 2021 and also that we achieve 50% of the Cobalt design capacity.
Some great posts Seis, you are doing some great for the share, very much appreciated. Didn’t Jubes buy out the Southern operation partners completely making the Southern operation 100% owned and reduce the Northern operation partners share substantially. That graph is so powerful as you say, have you thought about doing a more optimistic one? Maybe a higher average copper price, basket price and improved cobalt production. This might really highlight the potential here. But the graph just done suggest over 21p per share incoming based on previous performance in relation to historical share price. Could be a very exciting year ahead, in fact could be fireworks if metal prices improve.
Hi DRB
I don't know if I am correct but I remember an RNS where JLP bought out the other parties regarding the tailings in the North so all the income will be kept Regards
Don't forget the ownership increased - 15th September
At completion of the Transactions, Jubilee will hold a 100% interest across its integrated Southern Refining strategy which includes the Sable copper and cobalt refinery (14 000 tonnes per annum copper capacity) together with Project Roan (10 000 tonnes per annum copper concentrator). In addition, Jubilee increases its beneficial interest across its Northern Refining Strategy, with Project Elephant's TD52 portion to 80.75% (highest copper and cobalt concentration of all tailings within Project elephant) which is specifically targeted by the accelerated development of Jubilee's cobalt extraction process, Jubilee's beneficial interest at the Mufulira Project increasing to 97%.
Combined, the Transactions have an aggregate value of c. US$ 24.77 million (c. £ 17.83 million) and offers Jubilee the flexibility to better schedule the development of the various tailings projects. As such Jubilee will increase its investment into the Southern Refining Strategy by expanding Sable Refinery to increase the copper sulphide recovery circuit as well as expanding the cobalt recovery circuit.
ATB
Northern
Thanks DRB, no I haven’t accounted for any JV costs as none were stated in the last RNS. Maybe they have been included in the overall costs / tonne? It’s a good point to bear in mind though.
Thanks Seis and DRB. All good points which I accept. I agree there is plenty of cobalt in the Kitwe dumps but had assumed that will be processed in our northern refinery. The truth is that all the material is ‘northern’ and the split into northern and southern operations is somewhat artificial.
In the fullness of time it would make sense to process all the northern material in the north and use Sable for Kabwe, other local zinc sources c(Kashytu?) and possibly feed from just across the border in DRC.
Jonah, A few extracts from previous rns's that may help shed some light.
During 2020, Jubilee entered into joint venture agreements to secure rights to process over 300 million tonnes of copper and cobalt containing tailings in Zambia. The copper and cobalt tailings are located in three central locations named Project Roan, Project Lechwe and Project Elephant.
From an earlier RNS, and part of the 300m mentioned above:
The Agreements secure the rights to an additional approximate 115 million tonnes of copper containing tailings located within a 50 km radius from Jubilee's Project Elephant and within the Kitwe area
The close proximity of all of the projects offers the potential to integrate components of the processing facilities, which could offer significant capital savings
The Tailings have been previously drilled and sampled to confirm both content and size containing on average 0.3% copper and 0.05% cobalt
Also noticed this:
Under the terms of the Agreements, Braemore secures the exclusive right to gain free unrestricted access to the tailings resources and to uplift and process the tailings to recover copper and cobalt for on-sale into the market. Braemore is appointed as the exclusive operator and solution provider to bring to account the Tailings. In recognition of this right afforded to Braemore, the Tailings Partners are entitled to a future earnings share from the processing of their respective tailings by Braemore ranging from 17% to 30%. Such earnings share includes a capital charge allocated to each Tailings Partner by Braemore in respect of the capital expended by Braemore for the implementation and commissioning of the processing facility for the respective Tailings.
Seis, Not sure if you'd factored this earnings share in to your copper calculations.
So in summary, it looks as though the tailings are dotted about the 3 sites but as the projects are all relatively close by there is no need to immediately commission additional Cobalt systems. In the future that may change.
Jonah, I don’t know it’s a reflection of the feed materials grades but with the Cu circuit targeting 12,000 Tonnes per year and the Co circuit having a design capacity of 1,200 Tonnes per year, a ratio of 10:1, that is pretty representative of the dumps around Kitwe which average 0.29% Cu and 0.05% Co. Wherever it’s coming from they clearly think its worthwhile doing and I don’t think they would have quoted the design capacity unless they expected to get something reasonably close to that… time will tell.
Thank you siesnav
Thanks Seis. As you say, the big unknown is cobalt. I was initially surprised we had produced any cobalt until I remembered that Sable was set up by Glencore to process DRC material which is cobalt rich. Presumably it was this stuff which came with the refinery that we used but I guess that’s finished now. I read in one RNS that Roan material is low on cobalt so why are we investing in a cobalt circuit for our southern strategy? Are we going to shift material from TD 52 or have we got, as I have long suspected, half an eye on DRC?
DRB, hopefully we might get a bit more info on Cobalt in the next company update. The Copper circuit should be operating at full capacity by the end of this month judging by the last update (90%). In theory the Cobalt circuit could be running shortly after that. I’ve gone pretty conservative until we know more but I’m hoping it will be considerably more than that!
Also I should have said I’m assuming no PGM ounces from the JV for FY 2022, they stated the plan is to phase those out unless required to make up a shortfall.
I might have a look at FY 2024 once we know more on cobalt and plans for Northern Strategy. Too many unknowns at this stage!
Thanks seis. Good to see it mapped out. I've gone a little less conservative on the Cobalt and turning out $120m earnings for FY23. It would be interesting to see what you get for FY24 assuming the rest of the copper comes online by end of CY23. Elephant also has Cobalt. I forecast another step up in earnings.
They say a picture paints a thousand words... I've put together these charts which show the progress the company has made over the last few years and what FY 2023 could look like.
https://tinyurl.com/6f26fjmm
For the calculations for next year:
I've assumed current metal prices.
I've applied the latest costs for production and transport.
I've assumed we meet production targets for copper (10,000 T) and PGM (45,000 ounces?)
The biggest unknown of course is Cobalt production. I've assumed just 10% of the design capacity (10 tonnes / month).
I've shown the attributable PGM ounces which have been pro-rated to take into account ounces lost to the JV and the 'in-process' ounces sold for a fraction of the basket price. I think this helps show the reason for the big drop in earnings for FY 2022.
Also I calculated the average PGM basket since start of production. It's pretty clear to see that our share price is following that price quite closely.. as you would expect as PGM's have dominated the earnings until this year. Next year is shaping up to be very different with a more even split between PGM and Copper / Cobalt.
All in all I think we have come a long way in a few years!