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Hero, i see your logic. I think maybe issues started slightly earlier in H1 as the Nov AGM statement was quite vague (e.g. H1 will be similar to last year - and no performance to date numbers) and also H1 last year had full 6 months of Roots versus very low volumes previous H1 as product had just been launched. So 'similar' to previous year would already indicate issues IMHO as that would already imply ST revenue was less than previous year.
Furthermore, the Jan statement mentioned DTC issues had already been resolved, which again indicates to me that maybe there was a time gap to enable resolution.
So potentially Oct & Nov rather than Nov and Dec - but regardless it was £300k down.
Just another point the 38% 4 month increase also includes the £122k from last weekend in June DTC that couldn't be included in 2019 numbers. So excluding that and % increase is slightly lower at c33% (according to FinnCap).
So anything over 40% H1 will be a really decent return IMHO and it looks like we have things in place to achieve this
The Nov 18 AGM stated H1 forecast to be in line with 17 revenue, subsequently we were 300k short (misquoted 400k in my last post), can only assume this was due to the DTC issue taking place after the AGM statement.
good point Hero, I hope you are right re 50% H1 increase.
After 2019 results I did say I was hoping for 50% H1 uplift so was slightly disappointed with recent 38% increase (which I suspects includes the bulk gift set order from Boots), however, didn't realise that most of DTC issues were Nov and Dec - thanks for clarifying.
The last 4 or 5 RNSs have all been really positive so at some point the share price will react:
1. Retail footprint increased significantly for all 3 retail brands
2. 2019 profit met - plus improvements in cash and stock levels and record DTC revenues in May and June 2019
3. Distribution deals for Prolong in addition to DTC
4. New product to be launched next year and deal already signed with SD to stock in all 800 stores
5. Expansion of ST DTC offering in Australia and US
6. ST xmas offering delivered on time (not bad as how often did HC miss his own targets)
Also, add to this the positive consensus of not having HC involved with IDP anymore and the fear that he might sell shares whenever good news is announced.
I’m still expecting H1 revenue to be up 50%+...DTC issues caused revenue to drop 400k from Nov-Dec last year, if we take 2017 H1 figures & add 38% its well over 50%!
Great post Shandy!
IDP should be an easy buy for investors, its products
1) make u skinny and tanned
2) stop ur hair falling out and regrow it
3) improve ur sex life
It releases a chocolate range of #skinnytan in #superdrug. Strong growth, cash, revenue increasing, What am I missing?
This was of course announced at AGM for 4 month period (July 2019 to Oct 2019) and in interviews the next day KC and JB confirm this % increase should be maintained for the remainder of H1.
With the new choc ST being sold via SD in 681 stores this upfront purchase should be over £100k. Similarly SD have a great black Friday ST gift set offer and if this is rollout out to the bigger SD stores too, as well as online, this will also generate decent revenues.
The recent ST Boots gift set seems to have been a great success - it sold out in stores and online within a week or two.
Finally it appears C+L should generate good revenues in the lead up to xmas as it's gift sets are being sold in 500 stores rather than just 46 this time last year (where they quickly sold out).
Plus DTC performance should be better as we had issues this time last year. All this reinforces H1 numbers.
A good H1 will de-risk 2020 numbers and will hopefully show that under KC IDP is in safe hands.
Maybe the share price will reflect this one day!