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I hope for existing SH you are correct Harel. Bey they promised 7000 bopd to Start March 2018. And here we are having burned £60m with nothing proven (Or the funds would be in the Bank) and a SP of 8p.
Explain that one / or Defend it...
All this talks about the bod hoping to walk away with a few millions are not in place.
Serenity will be developed quickly if confirmed and will produce 30k bbopd, with 50% net thats 250m$ of annual revenue and around 100m$+, with 0 value to the rest of the potential of the asset that makes a company value of around 250m$.
If lib west will be proved, you can imagine..
Interesting take on things FF, but I'm not quite as sceptical as you. I think they got greedy and flew too close to the sun. Hubris and greed are the innate qualities of a banker, and I think Graham has allowed these qualities and his belief in Majid's f@cking models to take a step too far (beyond boundaries as it turns out). I think they'll get some sort of deal done. Although Graham doesn't have a lot of money to lose, he does still have a lot of money to make if he gets things right. This is what I'm counting on. I just hope they can get it done sooner rather than later as time is money, and the longer it drags on the weaker our hand becomes.
I agree on the small 10% raises here and there when the opportunity sensibly presents itself. But I don't see them being so stupid as to do it now for $1m. If they do a raise now then they really are cr@@ks and I'll be turning up to the next investor presentation with a baseball bat.
Didn’t Graham and Neill put up £6.5m each at the beginning at a First Listing ?
I go with what you say GGG. Great Post.
Personally I think the BOD are very clever. Their behaviour though follows a familiar pattern and I am a sceptic by nature.
Yes Equity Raise of significance is out of the Question to contribute to Capex (Yet I believe they will allow 10% here and there as previous / when opportunity arises to cover unforeseen Operating expenses).
Here we are at a Farm In with an Oil Discovery and we are at a Position of Weakness (Due to SP). Familiar pattern if you look back when they need cash / yet they have raised lots of cash / only to burn back to their friends ?
It points to Syndicate behaviour to me / Raising cash like heroes to keep the Operation going (Usually from a Point of Weakness) / De Risking the Block / Burning the Cash by Overpaying those who do the Work / Never working towards producing Oil.
The only way they can keep up Rinsing the Shareholders is to play the Long Game and actually have (Or make believe they have) Oil in the ground.
If what I am saying plays out (They don’t want to produce Oil) / Then Graham and Neill will get 3/4 of their money back / Having played the Long Game they will have covered their paper losses with Salary and Lifestyle and future opportunity for those who they have been a front for. The real money men.
So SH will only get their Best Value back at the end ? I predict 18 month away. That assumes Serenity is viable. Hence we are at 8p. All IMO.
I'd agree with you FF if it weren't for the number of shares owned by Graham and Neil. For them to walk away with a healthy few million they need to get a partner on board who will effectively prove up what they have been unable to do. If successful there will be a t/o at the +50p mark within 18 months and they will have themselves a few £million before they head off to their next project. I think Graham was willing to roll the dice and eyeing a nice £10m retirement package. With a solid f/o he'll still get his millions, just not as many.
FF, your point about needing to double the SP to reach 16p other than being self-evident, is worse when you consider this is only an MCap of £17m. So even if we doubled the SP we still wouldn't be in a position to raise money without significant dilution. If these muppets can get us 3 free carry drills to appraise Serenity and Liberator, for 50% of both fields we should see your 16p. Being realistic I think the best we can hope for is 3 x committed drills (free carry / junior partner) + say $5m cash up-front for 50% ownership of our acreage. This would take us to +20p. Given where things stand this would be a good result as it's a cost to our partner of circa $35m for 50% of a company currently valued at $10m. It would give the company some space to prove up Serenity. And providing the appraisal points to +25m recoverable barrels to i3e, the SP will be back above the 40p mark and in safe territory to raise funds again, or be a solid target for a successful t/o at +50p. It's funny, the company is effectively safe from a low-ball t/o due to the IIs and bod ownership. But this in turn means that everyone knows it won't be taken over so the SP isn't anywhere near the value of the assets. It's all about the f/o. and everyone knows it. Thankfully Graham knows his fortune relies on the f/o, so I'm betting he'll recognize they need to take a haircut, and pull off the f/o we desperately need.
GGG. I have come to the conclusion that they have no intension of producing Oil. It’s too Big for them. IMO They are there as a front for other Oil Companies to de risk the Block at the expense of the PI.
All the Communications (lack of detail and commitment on dates to achieve goals) and the Market Fluctuations point towards this. All IMO.
Correct Fastfood. Except the 'other entities' are hubris and greed. With such entities supporting one's decision making it's very easy to take someone else's money and roll the dice. Bankers do this every day. Graham is of course a banker. People will point out how many shares Graham has, but one needs to remember he didn't stump up the same amount of money as everyone else for most of them. As for Majid, the less said the better. With all his 'models' one would expect he'd front up some cash. But he hasn't. The market paid for their gamble. If it came off they won, and won big. If it didn't, they lose, but nowhere near as much as their backers. What I don't think they counted on was the reaction by the market if they missed their targets. Add some insider trading and there you have the current SP. The SP is by no means relative to the value of the assets currently. It is however relative to the confidence the market have in these guys abilities to do a deal that will 'fix' their f@ck ups. I've averaged down as I think they will manage to negotiate a farm-out and it will take the SP north of 15p. If they pull something out of the bag it could be up to 30p. But this will require a very good deal being negotiated, and I do't believe we're in a position of strength unless we have parties other than RRE / Repsol in the frame. We also need to keep in mind that RRE are looking at much bigger fish at the moment so could be disinterested in our acreage, especially if they manage to pull off something like a t/o of Spirit. In fact they may just write-off Tain altogether as it's f@ck all when compared to $1bn deals they're currently trying to pull off. AIMHO. NotHTH.
I don’t understand attacking each other. It’s plain Bullying.
My main beef with the BOD is that they have created a SP where it has to double just to make 16p. You cannot see how this Value can be easily achieved otherwise we would not be at 8p !!! Investors would be buying !!!
Can anyone explain why the BOD choose to go right to the edge of Channel ? What was the Value in this ?
Surely in a High Risk Industry / You build a position of strength and add to it ? It seems to me the BOD are being directed by some other Entity. They certainly are not working to deliver Shareholder Value ... Unless you are part of the syndicate.
Drillspark, perhaps remove the big angry bug drilling up your @ss for a minute. Oiler is a ramper if anything. I've questioned some of his overly optimistic numbers a few times. So yes he's being sarcastic. Look at his posting history and it's pretty obvious. Look at mine and you'll just see anger directed at the bod for being such f@ck ups. Reality is they had the ability to drill and recover 7000boepd for near enough the same amount of money they've borrowed to 'prove up' their licenses. It's not known they had to do this, as suggested by another poster. What is known is the SP is over 90% less than it was 18 months ago. Even by AIM standards that's f@cking terrible management of a company, it's assets, and considerable funding afforded to our bod. The market has priced this company because of their poor decision making, broken promises, and the insider trading that has occurred at least twice. If you want to direct any anger I'd suggest the ****s who have promised so much and delivered so little. I'm stuck in this dog until the next bounce then I'm out. I think you'd be hard pressed to find many longer term holders willing to hang about as well. New investors, you're very lucky to be in at this level as the company does have significant potential. It's just whether the bod are capable of realizing it.
SP will slowly drift down to 7p as no news due for at least a Month. imo
AIM shares are news driven so the longer we go without news then the SP will lose its strength.
News required asap.
Oiler...so is this post from you on the 13th sarcasm as well?
I must be the only person wanting a farmout as a second option.
With £10m to £15m cash, a second listing raising atleast £5m then a £15m RBL i3e will be able to drill 2/3 wells and get the 11mmbbl into production leaving us with 100% of the licences and generating cash, one well producing 4,000bpd should net i3e around £55m a year and provide production to loan against for phase 2.
My opinion holds...low life troll scumbag!!
Re Alexios..have a read of the post its Oilers not mine ...so jam your re warrants....
Drillspark re:warrants,
Suggest you read the 1Mar 2019 and 3Jun 2019 rns's
Oiler.....that’s some change of opinion you’ve had in 5 days.....looking at the posts I would say you qualify as a TROLL......and a pretty poor one at that.
Your post
14 Feb 2020 09:02
Just got to ask yourself what value you put on 100% of 600mmbbl STOIIP and 11mmbbl of 2P reserves 2km away from infrastructure is worth, more than a £10m Mcap?
Funding new will come soon and probably before the end of april, farmout or other ways?
£45m raised last year and around £25m spent on drilling with £5m overheads so £15m cash left?
Second listing to give extra cash.
If Previous RBL for 23mmbbl 2P was worth £100m then surely I3e could manage to secure £20m for 2P reserves of 11mmbbl
Could warrents be renegotiated to raise some funds?
Correct Luckyman. Not looking good. It’s took them 2yr to do 3 drills. Cash burn. £40m raised. £22m Loan Notes. Nothing proven.
SP will drift further without any news.
Nothing to do with the company or our assets its just the way AIM is.
How low will we go ?
If we close below 8p then 7p will be our next support.imo