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Agreed again Wasa. Believe me i'm in no way trying to be negative with my posts. I respect most posters on here for their knowledge. I just 'say what I'm thinking' and try to keep some realism on the situation.
BTW I take my hat off to any self employed person with businesses in these times. I'm one of life's employed and have been lucky to keep a job.
It's unlikely i'll be here in 2025 with 10p+ leaving me to think very seriously about taking out my 'winnings'.
God luck to all.
Price should rise in anticipation of financing I expect it to start moving around September on no news anyway. I think the swing traders will want to be in at that point people who have pots elsewhere presently. Horizonte still has relatively low liquidity I would argue for its mcap hence the shares can move on low volume (although my £50k purchase did bugger all to the price yesterday - in fact it fell a bit - I think we have a seller!)
5p seems a resonable first target in September even without news. Then a 100% rise becomes easily justified when the financiers cough up the $443m to 10p.
westie I've convinced myself (rightly or wrongly) that £300m mcap is very reasonable during the mine build at least in a favourable nickel price market. I expect worst case 2.5bn-3bn shares so 10p+ is reasonable pre production.
Now we all expect there to be a bit of hysteria at financing (no doubt the board will get swamped with new arrivals at that time!) and shareprice will probably overshoot. How high? 15p maybe?
FWIW I think finance equity will be set sub 10p but I no longer think this will limit the price, rather set the floor.
So I think if somebody is looking for an exit around finance 10-15p is the goal. For somebody here for the longer game, my target remains 30p area for the main tranche (and actually I wouldn't sell most of my holding maybe only 1/4 then as I see the dividend scenario here as compelling from 2025+ if we stay independent).
Good post Wasa - i've given up for now on the £100m Mcap theory for now but of course it could still easily be achieved. To me, finance is such a big step in the evolution of HZM that it surely demands a big step up in Mcap/SP. Just how much of a step up is open to discussion. 50%, 100%, 200%? Sure stocks do have massive rises on the day of good news but historically it's more common for there to be a gradual build up in the sp in anticipation of the good news. So maybe things will be kept quiet until the 'grandaddy' is released, but i'd rather the odd snippet of news is released to allow the sp to move on from here. Simple maths confirms a large rise (100% for example) from our current position is less preferable to a smaller rise from say 6p. So surely the price has to start moving on as we approach Q4? I have mo doubt finance is in the bag but it remains to be seen in what form.
Westie completely agree with the sentiment, don't get me wrong on that one. Patience is hard for me to learn it isn't how I am in business life and it isn't what moves my business forward but for investing one needs bags of it.
What I am thinking is that by not announcing pre-news the impact of the news when it lands will be bigger. Whether that is an intentional thing or a by-product of how these negotiations happen is up for debate. We may not get any pre-amble just the grandaddy RNS at 7am one morning in November who knows. If they've ditched plans to need to move the SP ahead of finance complete (which seems equally likely to me) then that looks the way it will go. Doesn't mean it doesn't finish above 10p on the day of the RNS should suitable news be released and then hopefully investors - whether holding for the long game or wanting to exit that day - will all be very happy with the timing and quality.
That's my thinking anyway. EUA has arguably less resource and is on it's way to a £400m mcap this morning. Absolutely no reason Horizonte shouldn't be doing the same by the end of this year - $50bn nickel and $4bn+ cobalt in the ground says that's very possible and indeed very likely.
Couldn't agree more re waiting for the right deal rather than a 2nd class deal. My point has always been about the "delay" but if it lands early Q4 at the latest then fair enough. I also have no problem in the sp staying low to allow institutions/private investors to top up, but there has to be a time when the sp starts to move otherwise what's the point? Anyway it would be 'nice' of JM if we get some sort of update before Q4 but i'm not holding my breath.
Wasa, ditto "Still better to get the right deal than a quick deal". ATB
Just on finance I am hoping the 'delay' is because they are sorting a big deal out. Perhaps Vermelho being rolled into the deal and a major partnership gets announced. Some deals are worth waiting for, I hope this is one of them. Lets face it if they are talking seriously to somebody like Teck (or for that matter Glencore, Vale etc) then delay making sure all parties are happy with the outcome and can sign up to it is going to take time.
Still better to get the right deal than a quick deal IMO.
Indeed we want to be fully ramped up in 2023 and hard to see that if we aren't building it this year. Also 2 years from appointment of Endevour - that's a long enough runway surely? The capex was stated as manageable. We've had coronavirus but it hasn't disrupted the medium/long term outlook too much for Nickel demand we are lead to believe.
Just on Brazil I admit it is the aspect I understood least (and therefore it was always a niggle) but I am reassured by the fact that mining is such a key part of the economy. Sad to admit it but for mining I think you have to find a country that does care about the environment, but maybe not _too_ much (this bit pains me because I do really care about the environment) I justify it for Nickel because of course the plan is to make the world cleaner. Brazil is in that sweet spot of needing the revenue enough and having the resource. I usually fear far left in any economic situation seems to do most economic damage than the center or far right. Lets hope they get CV under control, Bolsonaro keeps his job, at least until we've financed/built the mine.
Also just on environment we are using clean hydro for the power to the plants. This is going to be key I think in the future as the environmental credentials of mining is further scrutinised. A lot of the big funds (including presumably Orion) will have their ethical credentials also for mine financing and this will be at least one criteria. This is going to be a sensitive topic also in countries like Brazil which get bad PR on environmental issues deforestation etc.
Some interesting posts this morning not least the stability in Brazil. I too see the huge potential here but never like the slippage with sorting finance out; I really hope we do get the news before the end of Q4; I know many are hoping for Q3 but JM said Q3/4. Failure to have this sorted by then is not in anybody’s interest. Patience! GLA