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acrossthesea; not wishing to be patronising, but from the tone of your post, you (and quite a lot of the pi's /insti's) might want to (re?) visit the article linked by Norseman (Fri 21:49) to earlier Lancs expolration/findings/modelling: if you haven't, you really ought to read it thoroughly. In it you will see rational explanations for almost everything 6 & 7z have encountered, the only anomaly being the scale of watercut from 'perches' compared to what is being seen now in 7z. However, the assessments of water content are gross, i.e. 'Average' water content across a large reservoir volume; the actual 'cut' of any one well at any particular point could vary from zero to 100%; the local fissure density (i.e. fluid-filled void volume) and connectivity are also variable, and it takes little mental management to arrive at the conclusion that (a) 7z could be an 'unlucky' waterstrike, and (b) the inherent ranges of results in the earlier data could give significant local variability in the results obtained from an single point. It is here I disagree with dspp and that cadre of opinion: to batter-on about the owc being much higher than the (very variable) depths the tech analyses thus far flies in the face of the evidence - and thus far i have seen no counter-evidence to support the 'dspp-group' claim, none whatsoever. Ok, so the model may need some of the variables changing on a local scale, perhaps even some new variables introducing - and those are likely to reduce the oip to some degree - and the watercut of 7z is indeed disappointing - but it is still early days yet - the EPS is, as Adouble repeatedly reminds us, a concept (i.e. model)-proving excercise, NOT a money-producer (that's a useful aside, really). This wailing is overcooked, imho.
on a minor tech note, it has been queried as to how Dr Trice 'knows' 7z is principally producing from the heel: I would suggest that knowledge is evident from the time delay of pressure-change(s) in the two wells - they are closest at the heel and diverge further along. Maybe a res eng/driller (AK?) could enlighten us as to how exactly that might be done in-practice, but seismically, knowing the P, T and chemical makup of the fluids, the time taken for one well to 'see' another (" virtually instant", in this case) is easily calulated. It ain't rocket science but does need some good tech and a bit of careful analysis by people with the knowledge to do such).
GLA
Hilarious ....
I’ve stopped posting here ?
Why you posting then ?
a cousin of Ting Tong (from Little Britain)
Lol. Trust me, trice knows what a chain tong is.
"my question is simple"
All your questions are pointless. I'm here for good analysis, not your constant stupidity.
I've also stopped posting here, one of the worst BBs here, lead by people like you asking ridiculous questions that are no use to anyone.
Be a problem solver and come up with potential ideas or analysis to post here. Not an idiot asking multiple questions that noone here can answer or find useful for investment.
Just IMO.
Slift.
Thenorseman,
"Ms Smith is currently the President of the Petroleum Exploration Society of Great Britain. "
So what ? She probably thinks a 'chain tong' is a sort of Chinese meal, despite her elevatated status.
Problem is, Dr T might not know what a chain tong is, either. Nor how to use one. But come to think of it, he probably does. Because how otherwise does one break down a core-barrel?
accrossthesea,
"Everything has changed because the EPS was expected to find dry oil, there has been an ever increasing water cut that was not in the plan. This throws the whole FB west of Shetland into doubt."
Utter baloney and horse-pucky, me ol' jumping bean ! The EPS was installed to inaugurate 'early production' (and thus initiate cashflow) and through data-acquisition from the two wells establish greater understanding of the reservoir and its potential for further development. And has so far achieved both goals with huge success, and seemingly continues to do so.
Two wells producing 17,000 bopd does NOT 'throw FB WoS into doubt'. Quite the opposite.
Planted,
"As you say, the data presented by hurricane re Lancaster has been scrutinised by a plethora of qualified personnel.
The OGA among them."
I suggest you take a quick look at this.
https://www.ogauthority.co.uk/about-us/leadership-governance/board-of-directors/
I'd submit that nobody on the OGA's BoD is in any way qualified to analyse any data provided to them by Hurricane, other than in 'business terms'. Of course, they'll outsource to subcontractors for technical advice.
The OGA is a paper tiger created by government, because government itself knows it has no teeth, so sets up a puppet show for the sake of appearances.
Everything has changed because the EPS was expected to find dry oil, there has been an ever increasing water cut that was not in the plan. This throws the whole FB west of Shetland into doubt.
Ms Smith is currently the President of the Petroleum Exploration Society of Great Britain. Could this be a contributing factor to this ultra-conservative approach she is taking? Fits nicely with the commitment well now probably not being required also as discussed earlier on this bb.
As you say, the data presented by hurricane re Lancaster has been scrutinised by a plethora of qualified personnel.
The OGA among them.
So, my question is simple
Why has everything changed once they get the genius who initiated it all out of the way?
What do the new management see that hasn’t been available before, or is there something dodgy going on?
Robert Trice ain’t no mug, nor were his petrophysical sidekicks.
So, who’s peddling doubt and scaring shareholders to get out?
Share price has been forced down and then held at stupid levels.
Could it be that Kerogen and / or some of their allies are in on this together ?
All smacks of being very dodgy right now, but time will tell what the real story is.
As you say, they can’t get away from the cash generating behemoth that is the Lancaster field and will continue to be so for many years to come.
5p a share realistic - not a chance
One things for sure , lots of news is coming and so is the big boat for lift #16