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Cap't Swag,
"awk - i disagree. the news that hur had stopped production had been leaked at least the day before - therefore i think they had to RNS. I certainly was expecting that in an RNS that morning."
Oh well. I guess it's nice to be 'in the know', I suppose. I'm not so close to things as to have inside such knowledge.
But to my way of thinking, a production shutdown for a few days because of some technical hitch is not an RNS-worthy event, given that 'downtime' to date has been far less than already costed-in, and it's seemingly short term. In other words, it's not a 'price-sensitive' event as regards the overall game-plan.
But that part of the RNS came second, with the first bit sending more doom-and-gloom, without any reasons nor explanations why they think 16 years of exploration and research and analysis is suddenly wrong. And without explaining how 17,000 bopd oil-production with a guaranteed buyer is such a bad deal.
Hurricane Energy now is obviously no longer the Hurricane Energy it once was. And the people now at the helm seem determined (for reasons unknown) to be steering the ship towards the rocks.
Feels like old pirate-days to me. Head the bounty towards the rocks, and then demand a ransom to give a tow, to save them from disaster. But at a crippling price.
awk - i disagree. the news that hur had stopped production had been leaked at least the day before - therefore i think they had to RNS. I certainly was expecting that in an RNS that morning.
What i wasn't expecting was a downgrade in reserves. We had already been notified of a potential downgrade in resources and quite honestly that was expected with poor GWA drill results and relinquishing of other licences. Reserves is quite a different matter to me. That was enough for me to sell up most of my holding.
Genghis,
"I see no reason to connect the two, and fully expect a fiurther planned shutdown in September. "
You may be right, and myself completely wrong. Maybe the recent shutdown has been nothing to do with the planned maintenance scheduled for September. But the Rns was totally wishy-washy in that respect. Shutdown for an 'inspection' ? That sounds like it involves 3rd-party people like MODUSPEC, doing 'inspection'. And pointing out things which
could be remediated.
There's no way Ibelieve it was the sudden 'breakdown' of some piece of kit on the FPSO requiring immediate 'repair', but necessitating qualified 'inspectors' onboard.
Because a technical 'breakdown' resulting in downtime, unless catastrophic, would not be RNS-able, because FPSO downtime is already costed in.
Some long while ago, people complained about the lack of transparent communications from the company. It's not just the CFO and CEO who have changed. It's also their IR (communications) person, and the very sad demise of the Ops Director.
This 'new crew' strike me as being no better with communications as the previous.
from the rns the repair would be in addition to the "service" - it is just whether they could take the opportunity to do the service whilst everything was stopped.
the more i look at the rns - the more i think that they were possibly trying to deflect from the repair with the reserve downgrade - not really been any comments on this repair needed - and also got the potentially future bad news out. might well have been a very good tactic. the price would have been hit with the stoppage - less production and more doubts. if the next rns was a reserve downgrade then who knows what the price would have ended up. as it is the SP has held pretty well all things consider. though the reserve downgrade / future plans is really going to be a significant rns in my view
On 8 July the co said ".A planned annual week long maintenance shut down is provisionally scheduled for September 2020."
On 6 Aug it said "On 2 August 2020, the Aoka Mizu FPSO underwent a controlled shutdown to undertake an inspection. The inspection identified necessary repairs which have been ongoing in recent days, with production expected to restart imminently. "
I see no reason to connect the two, and fully expect a fiurther planned shutdown in September. To the extent the two statements allow for misinterpretation, the co should immediately clarify, imho.
Rns on Monday Tuesday reading through a previous rns the shutdown planned would take a week but in the last rns it said it would be restored imminently and that was Thursday.
19,000 bopd anyone :-)