London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
The most striking reality is this:
I was shocked when I read a few minutes ago that there have been 1,355 new deaths in France, far more than anywhere else.
The health ministry has begun including nursing home fatalities in its data, which added 884.
Otherwise it would have been 'just' 471.
So, it really does make one wonder whether when comparing countries' figures, it is like comparing apples and oranges.
There's an interesting report available from Imperial college modelling the total number of people infected and the impact of lockdowns on death rate. Title is "estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries" and it's freely available.
In their models the infection rate in those 11 countries is much higher than measured, although there is absolutely no space for the hypothesis which includes ADUK and many others being infected in a first wave!
Also there is a reliable antibody test, they're using it in South Korea.
"Double is fairly certain that he had CV and of course he doesn't figure in the statistics either."
And won't for a long time yet, probably. Because no reliable test has yet been developed to find people who might have caught the thing, recovered, and might thus already be immune or at least has an antibody present in their system.
This was something I thought about as early as February: going to my local hospital and asking them to blood test me in case it could be of help. But on my brother-in-law's advice (he's a retired GP) I didn't, because even back then he knew no reliable test existed.
And anyway, hospitals are places to be avoided as much as possible, unless visiting an unwell relative or friend, or if one's unwell oneself.
Maybe later, when 'mass testing' kicks in, I'll go for one myself.
I know, DC.
Double is fairly certain that he had CV and of course he doesn't figure in the statistics either.
I deliberately omitted China this time for the other reason you mentioned.
Probably the best indicator is the one I mentioned yesterday, i.e. the graph of numbers of daily deaths.
There are signs of a turning point approaching in Italy and Spain.
The reporting of recovery rates is meaningless as the recording of confirmed cases varies county by country and in some countries the published figures are probably false. It should be quite obvious that in countries were there is less testing and thus less confirmed cases the death rate will be higher and the recovery rate lower.
My daughter and family have been self isolating for the last 2 weeks after her 3 year old had a fever and the described symptoms. It is almost certain that is was CV19 as they heard a teacher at the child's nursery had tested positive. This is a family of five and all were affected and fortunately all have recovered but they will not feature in the statistics.
Percentage recovery rates (i.e. the number of people who have recovered divided by the number of recorded cases, multiplied by 100) include:
South Korea 58, Thailand 27, Germany 24, Spain 24, Argentina 22, Japan 20, France 19, Canada 18.
Thought you were referring to Greta Tintin Thunberg .
ADUK, have you considering emigrating to Belarus?
"'They' also shut down commerces, pubs, restaurants, shops other than those selling food, etc. 'They' also also limit how far we can go for a walk, and have the police enforce that. 'They' tell me I can't get in my car and drive 40 miles to play poker with some friends."
Perhaps, you haven't seen videos from Wuhan early this year?......
Is this the only way to tackle the virus???
Will whole world go as far as China in enforcement to minimize death toll?
...Probably, ..... within weeks, they will have to,........ otherwise new hospitals/mortuary facilities will be well overcrowded!?
"They tell us what is serious, how seriously we should take it, and how we should react."
They know it is very serious!!!.... otherwise why enforce 'lockdown' law???...
.... Therefore valid Question should sound!
What Chinese authorities told them that they force most of the people/businessess to stay at home????.....
"We're talking about different 'theys', Double."
I don't think we are.
"I'm referring to the mass media and you're referring to the authorities."
They've become the same. Unfortunately. And despite the mass media proclaiming their 'freedom of expression', all they do now is just unwittingly act as the 'authorities' megaphone. Hey! These days, we know what the Queen's Speech is going to be before she's given it. We have 'leaked documents' from Downing Street before the PM's said anything.
Honestly, all my local shops and bars have been closed up because of something someone's said on the telly, and the police are out asking me for a bit of paper whenever I want to go for a walk. But I haven't seen any tumbrils coming down my street laden with bodies. In fact, haven't seen any ambulances turning up anywhere in the vicinity in a hurry.
Not walking to the hospital to see how things are, 'cos despite my investigative journalistic instincts, it's more than the kilometer distance from home I'm allowed to go.
Dunno what to believe, believe me.
Mr B Bobtown,
You are without doubt an absolute T---t, someone whom likes the sound of his own voice, someone whom thinks he knows what he is talking about, you do my head in, just having to read your puerile responses to AK.
Please, Foxtrot Oscar to other play areas, like the Lego Forum, or How to build a Tree House in your front room :O)
Here are some of the phrases I like from the Spectator article:
That puts the morbidity rate of Covid in the range associated with flu - except the huge number of people with Covid still have the disease, its not very scientific to compare a pandemic mid way through with other death rates.
We have yet to see any evidence of excess deaths - firstly, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence...that's pretty basic science. Secondly this is clearly untrue if you just take a moment to understand what's happening in hospitals and what doctors and nurses around the world are saying, geez even the Chinese state says it.
More needs to be known about the models, do they correct for age, pre-existing conditions etc - this shows how little the author understands epidemiology and the government advice. How could it possibly model the difference of isolating for 12 weeks people over 70 and those with pre-existing conditions? If that wasn't in the model nothing could have been said about the impact of those social distancing measure.
The mind boggles...
View from a Caribbean island
We have had free movement of people on and off island up until ten days ago. The island has exchange students in Wuhan China and a large island population living in New York with constant movement back and forth. An American university, along with tourist from all over the world. One of our neighbours mother and son brought back a nasty cold from New York and this ran through the area where I live in January, it started with a fever and fatigue followed by a brief stomach up set and a dry hacking cough that lasted for about a week. Everyone recovered, some cough were very persistent. This is a common story all over the island; there is a life expectancy of around 76 years.
Our first confirmed and test corona virus patient on island was a British holiday maker that arrived in mid March and was test positive a few days later. This was the first testing done on island. In the tropical environment viruses’ are generally mild affairs. It is Dengue, chikungunya and Zeka that lay people up.
The island now has a 7 day 24 hour lock down. Closing the stable door after the horse has bolted comes to mind.
With current testing policy only really sick people get tested, the vast majority of cases will never come in the statistics, this is the case world wide.
We're talking about different 'theys', Double.
I'm referring to the mass media and you're referring to the authorities.
I'm not complaining about suspension of liberties; my complaint is about the media's dominance of daily life.
AQS raises a good point about the NHS running out of respirators, but what if it did have enough to cope with CV, and then we got hit by something much nastier?
Remember, the Black Death wiped out a third of Europe's population (and presumably a third of journalists).
How could the NHS possibly cope with a health crisis of that size?
"They tell us what is serious, how seriously we should take it, and how we should react."
That's not the point.
'They' also shut down commerces, pubs, restaurants, shops other than those selling food, etc. 'They' also also limit how far we can go for a walk, and have the police enforce that. 'They' tell me I can't get in my car and drive 40 miles to play poker with some friends. While 'They' impose taxes to the extent that diesel costs 1.5 euros a litre, whereas we know that there's so much of the stuff it ought to be retailed at about 5 cents.
And now 'They' are 'self-isolating' 'cos they've got the same bug as everyone else...!
what has NHS funding got to do with France, USA , Italy,Spain etc who all have shortages because of the severity of covad?
"Odd that, I don't recollect hospitals rapidly running out of respirators in previous years for this "routine" flu virus then!"
No, maybe not. But I do recollect both political parties during both the Brexit arguing and the elections saying the NHS was underfunded and running close to the limit. Maybe they were both right, and now push has come to shove, that's the case. I guess a bit of kit like like a 'respirator' has a 'usage life', just like a car. But instead of using funds to replace equipment, it's gone into different pockets. Now we see the result.
Tks for the links.
The first I had already seen, but the second I hadn't, and it was interesting.
I particularly liked this phrase.
"The scenes from the Italian hospitals have been shocking, and make for grim television. But television is not science."
Sure, one can be 'subjective', and be cynical about the whole thing because of the hardships which governments are imposing on us.
But there are also objective reasons to be cynical. Even if while sitting back in one's armchair while under 'lockdown' there's nothing to be done about it.
What I see is 'systems breakdown'.
Here's a stark case.
The UK health-system is supposedly at 'breaking point' due to CV-19. This 'scare' has caused people to 'add a new system', such as bringing more people in to supposedly shore up the thing. Like 'grounded' airline cabin-crews, and turning the Excel centre into a hospital. But there's already a shortage of health-staff PPE, and health-staff are already coming down with CV-19, leading to a lack of people to train the incomers into their new roles. For whom yet more PPE will be required. Etc..
There's a lot of 'positive feedback' occurring here, and that's never a good thing.
Plus it's all being 'improvised', and that's not good, neither.
KSA / Russia and oil is almost a sideline. But over a matter of a few months, the economy's been wrecked, and civil liberties essentially curtailed. Something's bound to go 'pop' (or KERBOOM!) soon.
Fortunately, help in that respect might be on its way. Google 'comet Atlas'. Just a marginal shift in trajectory...
Odd that, I don't recollect hospitals rapidly running out of respirators in previous years for this "routine" flu virus then!
You are right the amount of deaths due to flu where more last year than this virus so we need to take the flu deaths away from the coved deaths and I suggest the figure is not so great then. Although not sure if I should post this on this forum.
Thanks for the link to a very interesting article.
I said yesterday that it would be interesting to compare the numbers who usually die (of all diseases) with the numbers dying now.
Well, according to Dr Lee, one would normally expect about 51,000 people to die during the time that 422 died of CV here, so it doesn't really matter how many died in total this time, because the CV numbers are so small compared with the total numbers that usually die.
'If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate. But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world.'
'The average age of those dying in Italy is 78.5 years, with almost nine in ten fatalities among the over-70s. The life expectancy in Italy — that is, the number of years you can expect to live to from birth, all things being equal — is 82.5 years.'
'Much of the response to Covid-19 seems explained by the fact that we are watching this virus in a way that no virus has been watched before.'
That's because our lives are now dominated by the mass media in a way that previous generations' were not dominated before.
They tell us what is serious, how seriously we should take it, and how we should react.
The television news set the attacks on the Twin Towers to music; the media told us 'the world will never be the same again'; they tried to get members of the public to cry on camera when Princess Diana died, and they will milk this story until something better comes along.
As usual, they are doing what they like best: making history.
Your message is on the money and looking at the bigger picture. Two very good links:-https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think?fbclid=IwAR3d-BaqfPgEB7aXgEBw-hQHn6cqO1p4eK2tMJ_aDzSM8vflqyNqpy-ZStY https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/?fbclid=IwAR3T8nAq0HVK-xd_ObNK8jicpfXt45LaPTAPDL6g-G2VSfn6GT0ZYqD1Wjo