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ok I will bite lancaster 54 days too TD we are 45 days with
fishing either.
1.massive fractures
2.seal and move on?
4 aces against 4 two`s
good game
find out tommorow then?
AUK - Yes you ARE forgiven for all your sins.
We suffered, but forgave you.
You have no more need for the confessional or penance.
Whilst chatting to God, can you ask him to increase the HUR SP by about 10p-20p as a ' celestial sign' for us.
Thank you in advance....
Hi AK
‘That sounds like fun! What the hell are you doing in Dubrovnik? (No answer required.) Is there a casino there? Is the food any good?’
First time here, with Mrs JB , amazing part of Croatia, did the walls walk yesterday only 32 deg C not really recommended in such heat , but great views of the medieval town.
You forget the war of 1991 though when Dubrovnik was shelled by Serbia , but lots of reminders in the museums.
Not seen a casino as yet but will ask ,food is excellent , fish dishes ,octopus seems like local favourite.
Lastly red wines , from Bosnia 2017,Blatina, excellent, only 32 Kunas, about £4 , can’t find it I’m UK that’s most likely because we get all the carp at those prices.
AUK
I forgive you toooo - your posts are highlighting many issues with 'Experts', still more to go so keep posting! - so you are doing this BB a good service, for those on LSE only since 2014, the 'newbies' as you call us, we love you.
ps EF made two drop off - so leaking still.. 4Aces tomorrow.
that's fine then. Better luck next time at the Casino.
Wellwell,
"Cheers AK. Always nice to agree, or should I say have agreement. What about my ‘expert’ opinion on your view at the time that nominal losses being a good thing was in fact a bad thing?"
B*stard. No-good lowlife SOB. Knave. Rotter.
Kicking a man when he's down.
Listen, I ought to be in a foul mood, but I'm not, because I can be stoical and philosophical at times. But I'm back from an eight-hour poker session at La Rochelle, where I fell foul of another really unlikely hand which made everyone at the table gasp. (Mind you, play enough poker and you get used to seeing some really improbable stuff). But this year has been remarkable. My max full house being beaten by a royal flush by some maniac holding QJ, quad kings vs quad aces (figure the probablilities) but luckily I ducked out of that hand pdq with my pair of tens, so the major damage was to the person the kings, but today, with me drawing to top flush and a possible straight, ended up with a straight flush, but lower than my opponant's straight flush when a queen landed on the river, so my ace became worthless.
Enough to make a man eat his bairns. With the result that I drove home after eight (I must admit rather enjoyable, as in good company) hours, having made just enough to have paid for my diesel and two or three beers. Which I chucked down my throat as soon as I got back to town.
Listen, I interpreted those nominal losses on WD completely wrong, and have admitted to that more than once, subsequently, on this BB. It's a reason I'm not too unhappy that my rumourmill newsflow has rather dried up regarding the current well. What I don't hear, I can't misinterpret.
But you want to rub my nose in it again?
Listen, you and I have clashed swords frequently on the BB over what is now a matter of years. I'm used to it, and so are you. But it wasn't yourself who I was disparaging as a so-called 'expert'. Instead, it's one or two 'newbies' here who have come in with all barrels firing, but one or two of them seemingly aimed at their own feet. Or instead thinking that the old lags are scared of the noise.
mallye,
"With regard to losses, have a look on page 50 of the CMD Presentation. "
Thanks for pointing that out! Something I'd overlooked.
Must admit that the CMD was an 'event' which 'came and went', though quite a lot was revealed there that was new. Now looking again at the presentation slides I can see I was remiss in not having printed the pdf as a further addition to the (now quite hefty) 'HUR tech information' library!
A thing to do tomorrow!
GF,
With regard to losses, have a look on page 50 of the CMD Presentation. There is a table there showing 'Reservoir
Characteristics below local structural closure' for Lancaster, Warwick and Lincoln. 'Major losses' were ticked up for both Lancaster and Lincoln, but not for Warwick.
I hope this is what you were searching for to give some reassurance wrt open fractures. Hope so anyway. ATB
Cheers AK. Always nice to agree, or should I say have agreement. What about my ‘expert’ opinion on your view at the time that nominal losses being a good thing was in fact a bad thing?
PPPS..
Wellwell,
Sorry, I didn't see your post before replying to GF. We're both saying much the same thing. Agree.
PPS...
Will someone remind FS22 that we're playing lowball stud in this hand? His quad aces are useless.
PS....
Somehow I've inadvertently hit some shortcut key again! The paragraph at the end of my last post should be further up the page, as it refers to watching out for equipment on the deck of outbound boats.
GF,
"Does anyone know if Leader has space to leave DST kit rigged up from last well? Or should the boat watchers expect multiple boats of separator, tanks, pipe etc before a flare this time?
Anyone recall if HUR mentioned lots of losses in the 2016 Lincoln well or not?"
Good questions, to which I won't pretend to have full answers, but it's worth kicking at those stones to see if anything crawls out from underneath.
There was speculation amongst the shipwatchers during the 2016 / 17 campaign about whether test equipment would be left onboard between wells. And back then, remember, it was the TO Spitzbergen being used, a much bigger rig than the Leader, and with considerably more deck space.
My personal hunch is that no, the big stuff like tanks, separator, etc., will be backloaded. For assorted reasons. A, the kit can then be fully cleaned, refurbed, and so on in town, where the contractor's yard will be equipped for such operations. Not the sort of work you want to do on a rig's deck. B, backloading the test spread reduces unnecessary deck load for the move. Always desireable. C, no insurance overhead for 3rd-party equipment onboard when it's not being used. D, no 'standby' dayrate on the equipment. E, kit not taking up deck space. Etc..
These are just gut-feelings on my part. Stuff like the dumb iron (pipework) probably remains onboard between wells.
Fluid losses on Lincoln.
HUR is historically very coy when giving out details of actual drilling. You've got to dig deep to find out that sort of thing, and even then the info is sparse. The stuff about 'losses' has only really come to the forefront since Warwick Deep, where the rumour-mill had it that losses were low. This has since snowballed, and it's rather amusing to see how so many 'experts' have jumped on the bandwagon, saying how high losses are an advance indicator of potential DST success!
I don't recall fluid losses having ever been mentioned by HUR in a post-well RNS, and even in things like the CPR's which contain some info on the early wells, only ballpark figures are given, in passing.
I personally (opinion only) feel that frequent supply boat visits to Pocra might be a circumstantial indicator of some sort, but not much more than that.
The 'shipwatchers' are greatly disadvantaged in looking out for such items on supply boat decks by the fact that outbound journeys from ABR are not advance-scheduled. It's a matter of luck and chance catching an 'outbound' on the webcam. Unlike inbound, where an ETA is posted, and one can be prepared, and also watching the tracker.
Call.
AUK
My 4 aces to your 4 two...
Rigs tend to demobilise kit before moving to the next so I doubt personally that the DST kit is still onboard but that’s just my opinion and could easily be incorrect. Service companies will be reluctant and unlikely to ‘leave’ kit on unless they are being paid daily rental even if it’s at a stand-by rate and the crew were choppered off as they lose the ability to charge mob/demob and can’t service kit plus it undermines their ability to react to demand elsewhere. Finally doing so would set a precedent and may mean they’d have to have more kit to service several projects at once on the same principle. So it’s a no from me.
ADUK - Probably Ctrl-Enter or Shift-Enter or Alt-Enter. The cat I'm guessing is HUR head reservoir engineer. Ive never heard him called that but he looks like someone called the Cat. And cat posts refer to RE stuff.
General waffle - Going by the semi lucid posts from FoS22 I'm guessing he just rehashes posts on other boards, mixes it up till you half know what his saying and tries to seem knowledgeable, mixes in the odd prediction, as some like to do, so if one comes off everyone thinks you know something; this by its nature requires the prediction to be suitably vague.
I know on timing we should be in the reservoir by now. Loading or not loading brine at Pocra may or may not be good, its not bad thats for sure. Dont know how many bbl storage the leader has (cant be bothered checking), how many they couldve kept onboard from the last well during move, what the dilution rate is with water to get to drilling weight or any other factors to know if we are losing 5 bbl or 500 bbl / hr.
Does anyone know if Leader has space to leave DST kit rigged up from last well? Or should the boat watchers expect multiple boats of separator, tanks, pipe etc before a flare this time?
Anyone recall if HUR mentioned lots of losses in the 2016 Lincoln well or not? If that saw lots of losses at low inclination back then, you'd tend to think that derisks a WD scenario for a horizontal LC well. If that is derisked, there arent many risks left are there?
Hello JB!,
"Just sat in a bar In Dubrovnik and reading your posts after a few beers "
That sounds like fun! What the hell are you doing in Dubrovnik? (No answer required.) Is there a casino there? Is the food any good?
I've had a completely unplanned evening out sitting in a riverside bar on the banks of the river Sèvre, in my home town, listening to a stunning blues band playing all sorts of 'oldies' by John Mayall and others, and yes, quaffing a beer or two as well.
Got to sleep quickly now, because I'm due at a poker-game in La Rochelle in twelve hours' time.
But thanks for your comments. 'Calling out' these ' expert newcomers' I consider a sort of duty. Quoting the 'Environmental Statement' document to me, when they had to get a personal link to it from a charitable 'oldtimer' of this BB just two weeks ago in order to be able to read it?
My copy of the ES is a rather handsome spiral-bound thing, sent to me gratis by the company on request, at the time of publication. Because I was a shareholder at the time, and still am. And can thus reference it far faster than someone pulling up a pdf, unless they've printed it. And at more than 300 multicolour pages, I doubt that's something
OK, FS22, let's have at it! And allow the other posters on this site to decide.
"Comprehend? EF on location, RT => Aberdeen...SN mated with Lyon.."
No. No capice, Godfather. I know nothing, except that I don't come from Barcelona. Would like to be there for the WPT next week, but have a truck-race in the Limousin, instead. Can't let my friends down.
" EF on location". Yup. Looking on marinetraffic confirms that. She spent some time at Pocra Quay, which as we know is the 'mud supplies base'.
But what are we supposed to glean from that knowledge? Have they got severe mud-losses, possibly indicating way-open fractures? Or isn't there enough cement onboard to plug back a duster? You tell us. You're the expert .
"SN mated with Lyon.."
OK, there's a shuttle-tanker hooked-up to BP's Glen Lyon. So what? BP doesn't issue an RNS every time that happens, which is once a fortnight or so. That shuttle-tanker happened to stop off at Lancaster recently, and none of us know why. But maybe it was a 'test' of some sort. I don't know.
But hang on! Maybe it's significant! Maybe the Stena Whatsitsname was picking up produced water from Lanc, taking it to Schehallion to pump down its injectors (as if they had a 'produced water' shortage), and picking up a load of crude. To be taken to Lincoln and burned-off via a temporary hookup with the TOL to produce a flare, and thus boost the SP? Nice conspiracy-theory, but no dice.
" RT => Aberdeen..."
Ah. There are some 'airwatchers' here, and yes, there's been quite a lot of helicopter traffic to and from the field of late. But was our CEO one of the pax? You tell us. And even if it was just a 'flying visit', that means nothing. Maybe with the production side having kicked in, Dr Trice's time to go and sit on the rig is more limited, so he's just been taking a visit, taking advantage of a bank holiday weekend.
I'm calling your bluff. Bigtime. Maybe raising it. And watch out if I raise on your bluff.
""Comprehend?"
That's "est-ce que vous comprenez ce que je veux dire, Monsieur, s'il vous plaît?" to you, sunshine.
Tell us what you expect the staggering news to be on Tuesday, or wrap it.
Comprehend?
EF on location, RT => Aberdeen...
SN mated with Lyon..
Comprehend?
EF on location, RT => Aberdeen...
SN mated with Lyon..
Hello AK,
Just sat in a bar In Dubrovnik and reading your posts after a few beers , all I can say is your posts make far more sense than F22’s et al even after a few bees :0)
Bottom line is you boil the boils down to their non descriptive / meaningless blather and add a sense of truthful rationale which is very important most particularly for new investors looking at HUR for the first time. Far too many dam non oily experts as of late posting here’s and they do indeed need to be challenged.
Overall though my gut feel is that HUR are slowly going in the right direction, imho.
Ignore the clown, he still thinks that the AM pumped formation water from the AM to a tanker and the down a hole via another FPSO a few click away, or did covert Ops back to the Shetlands before returning 12hrs later for the next offload. Aye right!!!!!!!!!
If one throws out enough vague comments a few oil trash phrases and adds a few irrelevant signs then one can loosely link those to any piece of news or price movement that happens.
If next week bring good or poor results on the LC drill, Farm out of WW or the GLA, News on GLA drilling being brought forward etc, then Trigger and Co will no doubt claim to have known all along, that all the signs were there and they traded accordingly.
Just my opinion, have a good weekend.
And I'm still aso wondering about this Cat. Could it be a catfish? Normally they're freshwater animals, I think, but maybe with the vast quantities of formation water Lancaster is producing (according to some) and that's being discharged by the FPSO (what can't be taken away bt a tanker, of course), the local environment is now ok for a catfish. Which has migrated offshore in search of giant squid for supper.
'"=> EPS production data will be used to appraisal extent of Lancaster field... Further 'experimentation' = 'out' trigger, post WD."'
(with single quotation marks added by me, in order to cause even more confusion)
I too request clarification, as I am worried that it could be a coded message from Trigger SD, warning of a new calamity.