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"Could easily go to the 11 p - 12p range "
Guaranteed, I'd say.
And lower.
chique, unless you are going to take the forward
guidance at face value, you won't know the
aisc direction until April, so you would have to be
content buying in at a higher level or not at all, any hint things are going well, the share will be
closer to its true value which is not 12p,
Personally I would be more worried about the
sanctions, local unrest, if they could just get on with the mining, the aisc is not a problem not
withstanding the diesel price and the gold price
they are due to mine more productive areas so
I antisipate the guidance will be something
like $1200 - $1350.
gold_hummingbird - my problem is the AISC being so high linked to the possibility of gold dropping
The company on the face of it has a future but what is my entry point ( not sp ) but in clarity over where the AISC is going
From March 2019 to June 2021 they paid off
$56 million of bank debt despite operational issues, so yanfolila can generate cash, I do believe people learn from their mistakes and going forward things will improve given the chance, but they seem to be unlucky, the sanctions are a worry and potentially could sink things if its
not resolved but its all priced in,this share is not
for the fainthearted but if you like a gamble it
could be a big win at these levels.
Could easily go to the 11 p - 12p range
Bushy will pay the 8 million !
He knows a "dead cert" when he sees one !
- Look maybe this is the bottom now.
It could be, providing there is good news to come and NO more dissapointments ! oh and POG does not fall !
But who knows .
8 Million from where?
January2
You're forgetting that yanfolila is debt free. If the gates shut tomorrow, there's equally no costs and Koroussa is fully funding at 8% a year with the first 12 months being interest only.
So even in the worst case scenario of yanfolila going offline tomorrow. They'd need only an additional 2 million rising to 8 million over the next 18 months to bring Koroussa to production.
I fancy my chances here "Volatility and risk are not synonymous"
ps my money went into THX.L for the moment , a new gold producer completely off the radar with 680 dollars life of mine AISC
I was lucky to sell out at 21.5 with the current AISC company really lucky with price of gold , to invest back in now would not be looking at the possibility of a downward move in gold which is a possibility , so they really need to get AISC down to realistic levels to attract more investors back in
Despite this year being a train wreck, it should
not be forgotten they will make around $20
million this year at yanfolila before the investment
in drilling etc, they have paid for the mine
previously, they will make money next year.
This year= last year
Next year= this year
I can't see how they can't make money in the
Coming year at yanfolila, surely they can't
f**k it up again!
I think you are seriously wrong gold_hummingbird.
It is ALL about Yanfolila at the moment because it's the only thing putting any money in the bank to pay the bills and wages. Without Yanfolila, then no revenue - Or are you looking for another equity raise ?
No - silly statement by you ! If Yanfolila makes good profit then you shareholder's will not need to dip your hands in your pockets again. If it makes a loss then you could be asked too, unless new mines can be fully funded by bank loans. Which are likely to be at high interest rates. So you then have a scenario of making money for the payment of bank interest.
NO they need to manage Yanfolila better !
In theory gold_hum you're correct, but you must agree their forward guidance isn't worth ****. They have under-performed on so many occasions that only results will make a difference to the sp, as their words are now worthless. Investors will need proof that Yanofila AISC can be brought back down to $1300 or less. The Kouroussa mine will add value as it gets developed, but it wont be anywhere near fair value because the market will be expecting DB to f@ck things up there as well. It will need to be built on time and budget, with at least one set of results proving they can get AISC to projected levels.
Having said all this I do agree that £50m has to be the bottom. It just gets silly after this. If I can free up funds in the near future then I'll add here simply because I think a ret@rd couldn't make things any worse. GLA
Profits have been shoved into (very successful) exploration which we'll begin to reap the rewards from in Q2 as we all know but which the naysayers refuse to acknowledge - those profits have/will take this from a 100k pa producer to a 300k pa producer in the years ahead so that's what's on offers to buyers today.
I am, of course, hoping you lot can talk it down another penny though obviously ;)
They should of broke even in Q4 or a small profit/
loss with an aisc of $1700- $1900 in the Q4
everyone who follows HUM are fully aware so
this should not surprise the market,
More interesting will be the forward guidance in
new mining locations which have been flagged
to be more productive, I will be surprised if there is a further fall, its already on the floor.
it's not all about yanfolila in any case.
The performance of this company is truly appalling. I've been in and out of HUM over the years and to be honest have been plain lucky in making money. Mali disturbances have always been an issue. However the Mcap is hovering at £50m not for these reasons, but for the number of mistakes and oversights by mgt over the years. The next quarter is going to look disastrous. I don't think people realize that Hum will have been mining at a loss in Q4, which is all the more pathetic given POG has been hovering at US$1800!!! And does anyone seriously believe the reasons for the huge drop? Does the limited Mali unrest really explain missing annual guidance by such a huge amount...? There's no point talking about potential if a company cannot make money in a near record high gold environment. Dan Betts is simply another unqualified trust fund baby. He's been given a shiny toy by Daddy who no doubt thought junior wouldn't be unable to f@ck things up. But Daddy has obviously underestimated just how useless junior happens to be. The guy needs to step down. Put a qualified ceo in charge and this company will fly. Leave junior in charge and it will continue to underperform and disappoint. He's had enough time to show he's not up to the job. I may come back again after the Q4 results, which junior will no doubt try to soften with some more great (overdue / held back) drill results. Really goes to show how the guy operates. He can't run a business and has been surviving on luck with POG and exploration. Imagine if POG was still nearer $1300. The company would be bankrupt. People need to take these things into consideration as another CEO who knows what they're doing would have delivered an Mcap of £150m with Yanofila. Junior survives because Daddy has his back. Any other company and he would have been fired years ago. Jesus I can't stand trust fund babies. To be clear if they can get things right at Yanofila (AISC below $1300) this will be 3-5x current value in 18 months. But that of course relies on mgt doing their bl@@dy job. I'll let you know if / when I'm back in. GLA