The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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No tips for avoiding legacy nightmares Sage but our top tip GROW should be up nicely next week, even though it's surprisingly dipped a little from its rise.
We're now only 6% off an all-time high and 8% off the 900's and if we've done our homework correctly, and I absolutely believe that we have, then Monday's results and forward-look should be excellent.
Good luck to all GROW holders ;-)
I am cautious in some ways yes. I manage risk for a living - maybe that's why.
If ever I have a bad dream (very rare) it is always of me waking up having failed to realise I have an A level or Accountancy exam imminently and not having prepared. Stupid really. 20 years since I completed all of these!! There must be something in my sub-concious that brings this out once in a while!!
Ha ha Sage, yes you have given the impression of a cautious person.
Share price jumping in the last few minutes but these investors have left it late. This is like doing you homework during Songs of Praise on Sunday night before double Maths on Monday morning :-)
I don't normally do this but....I had a little top up ahead of Monday as well.......very out of character for me.
Fyi I topped up on Tuesday and Wednesday this week...
Expecting a Steph top up message anytime now... :-)
Trustpilot 27% up on float price. We have circa 7.9% of that from what I recall. Say £109m roughly? That's not bad at all.
Agree valuations are tricky, they always will be and is why I avoid bottom-up analysis. AUGM is not like for like, but fintech is a subsector of technology and "fast" growth so there are some similarities. Draper Esprits portfolio with TrustPilot was very much revenue-focused rather than pure growth through membership numbers (that could be said of CHRY) and for this reason, deserves a bit of premium-like AUGM and even HGT in the sub-sector of SAAS.
Agreed. Surprised to see GROW still at 830 this morning but I think we're off the radar to most investors.
Still confident of 900p+ by the end of April.
Fingers crossed for a good update on Monday!! No such thing as a 'sure thing' but I can't see how it can be a bad update.
I don't know AUGM so have no idea whether it's portfolio make up mirrors what we have here or indeed it's investor base etc, I can see it is a lot smaller and it looks like it focuses on Fintec, rather than broader technology. There are numerous examples that could be used to compare to. The more quoted investments we hold though, the less likely significant discounts or premiums to NAV are likely to be. Time will tell where we trade compared to NAV.
sageoflondon in Stephs defence, do cross-check your numbers with AUGM on a very high prem.
Stef - I still don't see a significant premium to NAV arising on a good set of results. Premiums / Discounts arise as a result of future expectations, which I don't think are as positive as they were on this sector overall. At present the market doesn't expect growth in these types of investments to be as explosive over the next 12-24 months. As a result I believe any premium will hover within a 5 to 10% banding of NAV - in addition to that we now have more quoted investments, albeit less than 50%, but nonetheless it isn't hard to pick up some UiPath, TrustPilot and eventually Cazoo. I still think this is a great place to park a portion of my portfolio (and won't be selling any), but think growth going forward will only be (harder) won by NAV increases arising from events that crystallise values. Basically is you are paying a 20% premium you are saying I expect this to grow by say at least 30% NAV within the next 12 months, so it's worth it for a 10% return. That was probably more than valid this time around. If we are at an NAV of say £8.50, the same return requirement with a 20% premium plus 10% return takes us to a share price of just over £11. I'm not sure we will get there by trading on a premium to NAV - ps I hope I am very wrong!
SP funny. Can't seem to make up it's mind whether to be in the upper or lower bund of 800 before preliminary results Monday.
I expect Monday will be a bit of a game changer and hopefully change upwards the range we are bouncing around in by 100pts.
As sage points out maybe 70% premiums of NAV/share not for a few years but some significant premium with this fast NAV/share growth surely justified. I think historically and practically 30% is "conservative" . We have had 30% premium over NAV/share 2/4 of our final results already. Surely this time round we will eventually drift p to 30% as well within a couple of months. How else can a retail investor get that growth rate? Even funds need time to mirror the fast growing GROW portfolio and should pay a premium of some sort based on not having a time machine to buy on the last funding rounds that form GROW NAV/share.