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what are the oil futures like?
might give some indication in change of day rates? and utilisation?
that would have an effect no matter what the other outcomes.
the hardest part in all this is that the community itself is quiet small.
seafox and gms operatations are well known to each other.
if you ignore the grammer (and anyone reading my post ought too!) seafox are looking at the best side of 30%reduction in daily running costs.
they do mention increasing ebitda
they DONT mention getting more contracts?
it makes me wonder if the contracts and the financing are equally such a small world?
I also wonder how many market makers are holding back to see if there is an upswing or if they would have taken the money and run?
I agree with Mr Duck regarding Brexit. I’m now only involved with stocks that operate outside the U.K./EU. There will probably still be a little bit of a hit due to failing optimism or panic amongst U.K. investors but ultimately the operations of the co. are a separate matter and shouldn’t be adversely affected. Heck, maybe the more global operations will become more attractive to investors as the European economy sorts itself out in the aftermath, though I can’t say that wether that is likely or not.
I think a strong chairman will be a godsend. Perhaps that could be Mazrui but as ive stated earlier the man has been very tight lipped about his vision for the company (or anything else for that matter). If i recall correctly they have a few promising candidates. Maybe after the resolutions at the gm are out of the way they might offer someone the job.
not that I have much to offer in constructive guidance at the minute.
it really is sweaty palm time for holders.
dont sell yourself short and jump ship.
you really would have thought corbyn could have bought may some vicks chloroseptic to show some sort of non party good will gesture.
i will mention loans and refinancing.
it is quite probable that until the the vote, any efficiency measures and new contracts have an effect on the books that the financing discussions wont be sorted.
if i could delay until that takes effect i would do.
my thoughts on this are.....better to negotiate from a stronger financial position if you can than from a weaker one.
as to a shariah loan? i do not know if informing shareholders in pursuing one would reduce the chance of it happening?
its an odd view but because the best deal for the company and its financing long term may be to wait its one i hope both of you read and realise there is no one behind either corbyn or may with enough sense to try and build a sense of unity it looks as if they are out just to derail a referendum. if they can hang it out a month or two and use those figures and a new chairman as a basis it might be a better footing? thoughts?
that isn't meant to make anyone nervous or twitchy hold on to your shares, just with seafox in the same industry for about half the time of gms it makes you wonder hat they could bring to the table that isn't a loan! cost saving aside.
looking at the boot being on the other foot.
there truly is to my mind a positive negative approach.
seafox could be placing themselves in a position of benefit with regards to assets if things go really south......
however that is 2023 and beyond.
I put this forward now as absolute worst case scenario because the oil price would have to remain at sub $50 work be hard to come by industry wide.
it is bordering in crazy to think this. but no one has put that in. probably because it is ridiculous and far fetched.
best say it now just in case serving 2 masters has a conflict of interest.
one thing I am sure of.
it would have cost seafox 10 times as much to buy in to it and driven the price much much higher in the process a few years ago.
low oil prices and poor utilisation (across the industry) are the root of it.
dont be surprised for the sp to climb in fits and starts......it could double at the drop of a hat (without wabbits).
take a look at serco. a bargain under 90pps the financial industry gave it bad press.
same with petra diamonds at 20p....it sure thing.....
I will most likely be voting against Seafox, im seeing them as something of a spanner in the works.
Ok if you wany my opinion, I believe the company will recover in the long term. There will be no whooooshes, magic tricks or share price unicorns. Once the general meeting is out of the way, i believe there will be a little turmoil whatever the outcome, so we will have to wait until things settle. My first real milestone is the commencing of the 1st contract. That should make the balance sheet look a little healthier. I relish the possibility of full shariah loan gfd but until GMS state that they are actively pursuing or negotiating one I cant factor it into my long term vision.
i think mr duck is trying to lay out how he feels the whole situation should pan out for best results.
it is his opinion and we can read it agree or disagree but agression not needed.
timmytradeface lets have you opinion about how or what is likely to happen
Not particularly. Just trying to keep things in focus.
bit aggressive this morning
sry extract
. We welcome our banks' cooperation in managing our 2018 covenant obligations and continue to progress ways of addressing the Group's long term capital structure.
last para
"The improving pipeline of opportunities for our fleet provides confidence that the market is starting to recover, albeit that it is more difficult to predict when this improved demand will be reflected in increased charter rates. We welcome our banks' cooperation in managing our 2018 covenant obligations and continue to progress ways of addressing the Group's long term capital structure. In the meantime, GMS continues to trade effectively and, with our modern, well-invested fleet and a strong track record for providing safe, high quality and cost-effective offshore support solutions proving highly beneficial in tendering processes, we are well-positioned to capitalise on further contract opportunities."
ok
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=GMS&ArticleCode=3t9x4pzb&ArticleHeadline=Covenant_Schedule_Amendment_and_Operational_Update
sorry I spent 20 mins scouring for the rns only to come up with an awful lot about ithmar and seafox not really understanding gms or its operation and costing it more money and not trusting their figures and leaving it with a non independent top heavy and unwieldy board.
yes if it gets to 6p it could be great buy!
I did see it snow in june once......
as regards the loan there was mention in an rns recently I will have to look
well the problem with cost cutting on the sort of job is it usually involves the creature comforts, things like food ......not very savvy for a happy workforce at sea for long periods and doing long hours....that would be just the start of it. sometimes workforce turnover might have had a part to play, sometimes you get what you pay for.
what you dont expect is long periods of low oil prices and fleets (not just gms) not utilised (low day rates result).
lean is one thing....fleet sitting doing nothing is another......
I doubt very much it will go below 12 to 13....tbh
My opinion (not that anyone wants it), is right now,coming up to the vote, is the right time to buy in.
The uncertainty will only add to the value. nerves etc as well as the odd tree shake from professionals....
An earlier post rightly pointed out profits and dividends and cash in the bank are the best things to drive the SP up.
Also some noticed , sorting banking covenants', contract after contract came in and no real upward or downward shift in SP in JAN (in which you would expect.).
Chair leaving dropped it a bit.
The extraordinary meeting will be the first of three hurdles to get over for the nervous...
There is the savings (seemingly seafox inspired) to calculated with the increased utilisation (from 58 to 72% which will hopefully see a profit) to be looked at end of year.
There is the replacement chair (who hopefully wont be seen as the axeman cometh by the workforce).
Parachute loans from the middle east may be a reality? or a hope?I dont know.
the fleet is very new worth 920million+iirc
the debt is just over 400 iirc.
the oil price is lower than anyone expected 5 years ago (although not at the pumps?) and to have new contracts should have been glorious news going from just over half the fleet employed to just under 3/4 on long term usage.
hopefully it should be long enough to see the oil price rise enough to see commitment to the 1/4 not utilised.
I would buy in......at this point I think there is value and your getting panic and shake a tree deals.....
if you dont trust me look at quiz and phd and ffi carry on in the next week. I do get it wrong sometimes but the oil price is the giveaway.
best of luck.
you might have to hold a while tho.....
A bruising day on paper, Duck for both you and I. Not worried though. It's just a question of when. Still not under water on this despite taking a load more on at 17-18p. Keep strong, keep long!
I hadn't been watching when the SP slipped and just saw the headline drop at close.
Was half expecting confirmation of a big sell after hours but thankfully not - volume increased but still very low and certainly not enough to take it down this much.
I guess everyone wants an increased slice of the action. mm's will certainly want to maximise that at outset as more likely to struggle with this one when it starts to fly. Could therefore get a tiny bit worse before it gets much, much, much .better.
877,455. Will post daily volume to remind myself about entry.
goodflyingduck - not yet.. But watching daily. Could see a shake down on all shares tomorrow when May's deal dont get passed tonight. Big sellers are a pain in the butt. PhD got 2 massive sellers after profit warning 115 to 33. My entry is 40.5p so down 5k there Need to keep an eye on volume here . So watching here to see what happening. Quite sure a few of the holders that rode this 7p to 19p im sure are keeping an eye on this.