Gulf Marine Services Share Chat (GMS)

To 17.75

Only an hour into the day and we've already seen a third of the volume traded that was traded on Friday. And that's before the big buyer in Dubai puts in an appearance! The afternoon trading will surely be see us in the 20's SBB1.

At high of the day 17.95p might even see 20s today :)

19.5p by 1pm, then, SBB1? Crikey! :-)

18.9p

Thanks Babbler. 18.5p by 1pm when the Dubai-based II starts buying? Looking likely :-)

Looking strong again GFD... Nice one :)

Come what may, I'm holding for the RNS. I would add more but that would just be greedy and at the expense of other holdings that I need to maintain balance in my PF, in line with my own investment strategy. No point having a strategy if you don't stick to it, eh? Just ask Theresa May! :-) 20p by Wednesday? 30p+ when the RNS lands? 40p+ when the Co's new strategic shareholder has finished buying and the Co announces the delayed Contract having been put to bed and new Contracts won? All perfectly possible. GLA

I may add a bit more if I can get sub 16p. I am also staying put. Very confident with this share

Agree, it is looking very strong. Isn't there usually a retrace though, somewhere along the way? lol

Think it would be very risky guessing the retrace point, I'm staying put.

I think we may flirt with 20p tomorrow. Looking very strong with our Dubai fund still buying

Don't beat yourself up over t'other one, Coggy. Stay on board here and you'll more than make up your losses for straying. Stay, don't stray! :-) At least until we get that RNS and then....! :-)

Yes, we've been relatively herd free considering how low the SP collapsed to on the 19th December. The recovery to date has been very orderly and patient, though quicker than I expected. We are still definitely off the radar and long may it continue.

Still kicking myself for being enticed by the "other one" lol

Ah, Coggy, what a dim view you take of the machinery (machinations?) of the financial markets! Still, since the States and the UK were at the epicentre of the 2008 Global Crisis, it's really no surprise. And yet, still nothing done to close the stable door! We've already had one horse bolt... are we in danger of the entire herd, in the stables, following in its tracks? Speaking of whom, we've yet to be graced with their presence, although Riddler popped by to see what was happening, as I recall. Or maybe they're the 'wrong type' whose arrival here, one poster feared? :-)

A good theory GFD, but I think planned to the wire. Releasing the RNS when they did had the desired effect.

They seem to be paying around 10% on the debt and working to pay interest rather than make a profit.
If the Dubai outfit pay off the debt then they would be making a nice profit then when the market improves a very good profit.
Would not be surprised if they load up as many shares as they can and then make a bid to take the compNy private.
Just a guess but would be nice.

... to a business like this is what their customers might perceive to be financial instability following the collapse in the SP, resulting from the covenants breach warning RNS. The timing was abysmal. What their NOMAD was thinking in making that announcement so close to Christmas I cannot begin to imagine. Anyway, they needed to get the issue sorted PDQ. So they approach the Banking Syndicate. By this time, Mr Market has taken a scythe to the SP. So, what had been a perfectly innocent Mar-compliant statement, suddenly pitches them deeply into the mire. Now, they've got leveraging problems, in spades. The Banking Syndicate says "Woah! You're deep in doodoo. Let's see how we can help [for which read 'Take you to the cleaners']". Faced with being shafted by the Syndicate, they make it known locally that they are in straits (no pun intended). Enter our new II. They, seeing the Co being treated badly by the Syndicate, say "Don't worry, leave it with us. Just sign on the dotted line and we'll get it sorted in no time at all", explaining how they'll become their new, strategic financial partner and assume the Co''s entire debt. The master plan is launched (sorry!). The Syndicate is perfectly happy for the debt to be transferred to the UAE. And, in the meantime, our new II begins buying up the stock in order to get to just shy of 30%. The Company is saved. The deal, in essence, is RNS'd and the SP, already bolstered by the new II's buying (now on the open market), goes back not just to where it was before the blade struck but beyond... where it was when the other II's mentioned by SBB1 were busy buying the stock. Contracts, on hold, start to flow again and the Co and its management can again go about its business having spent the worst Christmas that any of them has ever experienced in their lives. And all because of their being Rule compliant and, maybe, ill-advised by their NOMAD, if only on the timing of the RNS. Hopefully, they'll be able to have that delayed Office Christmas Party all too soon.

"Established in 2007, Arqaam Capital is a specialist emerging markets investment bank, bringing regional and international product offerings to the emerging markets. Arqaam Capital combines international best practice with expertise in the markets in which we operate. Our primary role is to provide financial intermediation and create investment opportunities for emerging markets investors looking to invest in their own markets and abroad, as well as international investors seeking opportunities in target emerging markets. Arqaam Capital operates out of three hubs, namely the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), Cairo and Johannesburg. Arqaam Capital has ten business lines - Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Cash Equity, Credit Trading, Equity Derivatives, Capital Markets Advisory, Infrastructure, Principal Finance, Treasury and Custody. In addition, Arqaam Capital provides in-depth research on more than 280 listed Middle East and Africa (MEA) companies across 26 countries and 15 sectors, including the largest global coverage of MENA equities" from their website and, clearly, with enough clout and capital with which to take on the existing Syndicate loans.

"Mazrui International will create value for its shareholders and distinguish itself as one of the premier diversified holding companies in the region. It will do so by providing effective support to its portfolio companies, being a business partner of choice, attracting, developing and retaining the best talent, pursuing continuous improvement, and contributing to the social fabric of the United Arab Emirates" from their website. And sounding for all the world like a strategic partner. I expect them to take their shareholding upto just short of 30%.

Good post SBB1. Well researched Thing is, if the SP (driven by the new II in Dubai, I suspect) carries on the way that it has been doing, we might be nearing your target ever before the RNS lands. The stock stood at a run-down 35p before peeps took fright and I can well see it bouncing back there, come the RNS and, going forward, well beyond that if they're freed from the shackles of the Banking Syndicate. Let's see. The trading pattern is pretty well established but it would be foolhardy to suppose that it's going to hold - the new II is going to want the stock as cheap as possible so they may start to mix it up a bit? Or not, if they're that supportive of the Co and want to redress the ills that the western capitalists have visited upon it?

Always difficult, knowing when (or, indeed, whether) to take profits, exit or stay fully on board. I've just been having that conversation with a friend. The compelling logic here though has me determined to hold onto my 500k shares, at the very least until we get the RNS. And then, if I'm right about the refinancing (a Shariah loan) this surely will go like a rocket. I know this Co. Well, I know of it from an old friend who's in marine insurance and they really are a class outfit. Best in class. The sphere within which they operate is not only a dangerous environment but one where savings are often made at the expense of safety. This Co has a 100% safety record, the best and youngsters fleet in the business and a great team of 'hands-on' old salts and oilers running it. I'm sure that's why they've seemingly found it possible to get financial support locally, in Dubai. They have such a great reputation. Why chase butterflies elsewhere when there's a rock solid certainty (IMHO) here? Doesn't make any sense to me. Not at all. My 500k shares are in sticky, not sweaty, hands until we get the RNS. And in the way that things are shaping up here, we'll likely be at or beyond 20pps before that lands. The demand for the stock remains unabated, lending to my notion of the outfit (II) in Dubai seeking to become a substantial shareholder, probably because if it is does turn out to be a Shariah-loan refinancing, that's the only way way they can get a reward for their investment. This is a strong hold for me personally since I'm up to the gunnels in the stock. My EKF shares are still on the road to recovery and I really don't want to liquidate any of them to buy yet more here. I need to keep some balance in my pf. For everyone else though, it's a strong Buy. I've chased this one down and I have also chased it up. And I haven't sold a single share. Not one. And nor have I placed any orders. Except for a crate of Champagne, that is! :-)

5th - 13th November 2 big guns were buying here between 38p - 41.3p. Standard life & prudential. When a few of the big guns were selling the weighted scales went from 32p - 7p very quickly as we saw on the bad news. Since then the selling has stopped and the weighted scales are now going the other way. Once bank convants sorted the big guns will be on those scales buying big time. Someone is buying now. November high 41.3p October high 46.9p 52 week high 52.2p in may New target price for me is 27/28p within a few days of the good news we are expecting.

This looks as though it could go way higher, just so busy in work at present I am just going to hold quiz and mcls and trade Enq when I get the time on the swings.

My advice is once it gets to 20p plus and take half off the table always got to be cautious in this market.

All the best

I doubt this will dip much as it’s clear the Dubai company are still buying (sic yesterday’s trade of 329k shares at 18.55p). I think the selling funds have dried up hence the faster rate of recovery, for sure there will be some selling at 20p. I will have to resist the urge to top slice. Am looking for 25-30p

You can trade this ever so slightly but only to grow your holding. That rush up to 18p yesterday pushed the bid to 17. To eventually fall and asking price went to 16. Only a penny but if you have a large holding that is a lot of money reinvested.