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Hello, So that was a micro SWOT, not a macro SWOT because there are two obvious macro threats, fire and earthquake? I believe the surface area IS scrub for part of the year (yes/no?), not stopping work through 46/47 degrees. And earthquake? Weakness/threat; it could destroy the crews’ cinema and swimming pool, and strength/opportunity; it could open up the ground and reveal the gold, cheaper to get at - although I don’t see why mining at a greater depth using block caving would be considered more expensive. Surely they will follow Cadia. And they’re not ‘digging up’ up half of Australia. They know exactly where they’re exploring and what they’re doing. This isn’t their first rodeo.
I have great confidence in this share and in this company. No matter what trolls come out to play tomorrow, advocating other shares and selling, I will be sitting on my hands. (I’m not connecting the SWOT to troll behaviour, by the way.)
So, to summarise, tomorrow:
Hands; sit on them,
Face; look away from the Sell button,
Space; give trolls and derampers and any doubts a wide berth.
GLA
Hi Rob99
I'm not expecting anything like that to happen, the first hint of a move for NCM or Ggp will spark a major scramble of takeover activity. They must be all biding their time waiting for the first move
"There was mention that barrack would be interested in Newcrest as whole buy out."
In a what-if scenario, it was hypothetical and in his opinion.
Correct Bamps and thats why newcrest keep shouting from the rooftops about Hav. Not once have they not mentioned in any interview that they would have mined it yesterday, also the spern at which they have gone says it all really!! Also its great for their share holders that they have this find, cheap as chips, 60 mil for what most likely 10-20 mil ounces! Virtually no risk here apart from a covid shut down or an alien invasion and the covid would only delay, the alien invasion.... who knows lol
Bamps21
Did/have you listened to rick rule on share talk ?
There was mention that barrack would be interested in newcrest as whole buy out.
Hi Rational Assessor
In response to your post re possible threats or risks can I just put aside some of the doubts creeping in on this Board.
Newcrest will work with other Majors if there's a hostile takeover, they are currently working with Newmont on one of Australia's top mines and Angl gold were there as well before selling there stake to Newmont.
2 of Newcrest's mines in Australia both showed production declines last year as did 7 of the top 10 mines. Telfer and Cadia East. Newcrest need a new source (Havieron) desperately for that reason and to keep Telfer going as a Tier 1.
As for other joint ventures nearer Telfer, well I've been looking hard all over the WA and can't find anything as good as Havieron but maybe De Grey's Hemi mine and that's up by Port Headland.
The mines i've looked at included Nifty, Laverton , Chicken Ranch, Telfer and a few others.
I'm afraid Newcrest or whoever are going to have to grit their teeth and stump up there's just nothing around proven as good as Havieron
BR. Be my guest.
ATB and SOYH
Great Post, RA. Can I use this for GGPHelp please?
?
With the boards, chats and twitters having various opinions in what has and what will happen in the Short term future, I have tried to take a more balanced view and create a "SWOT" (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) on GGP as a business. Certainly not looking to deramp or worry folks but, have found that SWOTS force you to look at the potential downsides as well as the upside, as there is no point in ignoring them.
Strengths
Good relationship assumed between NCM and GGP
Hav keeps getting larger (excellent grades and long intervals of Copper and Gold)
GH and CB (what a team!)
Miner friendly jurisdiction
Telfer running out of ore
Price of gold increasing
Solid PI Base (Sticky shares)
Low cost base (few employees)
GDXJ inclusion (attractive to large investors)
Weaknesses
Could dig up half of Australia (other tenements) and find nothing
Cashflow (although GH reckons he has this covered)
Depth of Havieron 1500m+ (more expensive to mine)
Opportunities (Newsflow)
Berenburg estimate
Scally results (AEM, then drilling multiple at any time)
H&P revised estimate (significant change from last)
Presentation by NCM at Denver Gold Forum (21/9)
Presentations to funds by GH (28/9)
Presentation by GGP to Diggers and Dealers (12/10)
Hav Drilling Results (every 6 or 7 weeks) - bigger and better each time (next is 28/10 @23:15)
Newcrest AGM (9/11)
GGP AGM (December)
GDXJ rebalancing (Announce 2nd Friday of December and quarterly thereafter)
GDX rebalancing (Announced 2nd Friday of December ?)
MRE (end of year)
Start of Decline (end of year start next year)
Multiple other tenements ripe for exploration
Ability to purchase further targets at cheap finance rates
Threats (Risks)
News flow dries up or presents bad news
GH or CB decides to leave
Suitability of ore at Havieron, impurities and suitability for merging with Telfer
Other JVs more attractive as closer to Telfer
Hostile takeover before opportunities can be realised
Falling Gold price
So as you can see, there are many things to be aware of, and (IMHO) the opportunities and strengths outweigh the Threats and Weaknesses.