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I changed my vote to keep Good Easter Friday as it is ...
But if possible to extend the bank holiday Monday to Include Tuesday too please..!
... The impact of supply cuts on pricing also depends greatly on the baseline production level used as a starting point, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) analysts said Thursday, since OPEC-plus has recently threatened to add up to around 4 million b/d of supply from February levels.
The Saudis already have ramped up production by about 2.3 million b/d since February to more than 12 million b/d currently, and the United Arab Emirates “has also increased output notably,” the TPH team said.
Therefore, if April is the starting point, about 4 million b/d would have to be subtracted from the headline supply cut to gauge the true impact of curtailment, analysts said.
“Overall, we need to see a true 10-15 million b/d cut for at least three-to-four months for the market to respond positively for a longer period of time” versus a short-term spike, the TPH team said, adding, “until then this continues to be a demand-driven issue with inventories continuing to build meaningfully in the coming months.” ...
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/121620-expected-opec-plus-curtailment-said-good-first-step-but-not-enough-to-balance-oil-market
from the same article below:
“A strong OPEC+ deal would be a nice development for a market in need of good news. It would not be enough to soak up all the extra barrels sloshing around the global supply chain,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy at Mizuho, in a note. “But it would add a few weeks to the ‘full storage’ timeline. Instead of global storage filling in eight weeks, maybe it will take eight to 12 weeks. Maybe China demand will return by then.”
But, Yawger said, the tone out of the meeting didn’t lend much optimism, with oil ministers so far appearing to be more interested in protecting their own interests
“In a way oil, inventories are mimicking the pattern of the outbreak and how it spread.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tightening-oil-storage-picture-underlines-urgency-for-production-cuts-2020-04-09
U.S. crude-oil prices staged an about-face on Thursday, closing 9.4% lower after enjoying double-digit gains at the session peak, as the energy market reacted to torrid updates on expected production cuts by major oil producers to stabilize battered prices.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-ends-wild-trading-session-93-lower-as-opec-gathering-fails-to-quell-demand-shock-worries-2020-04-09?siteid=bulletrss
Well....if they want oil price to rise $40++ immediately then surprising the oil market with 20 mb cut is needed...even if it’s for three months initially then review later...
I hope this will happen with the USA involved in some sort of shape to send a clear message that the balance of oil demands/supplies in the world is a priority...to stop future rows and manipulation by speculators..
They have no alternative choice ...
... Saudi Arabia-led OPEC-Plus held a meeting that included Russian officials late Thursday morning, during which they discussed an agreement to reduce oil production by 20 million barrels per day.
The deal would last for three months starting in May, during which Saudi Arabia would cut production by 3 million barrels, Russia by 1.5 million and other OPEC nations by 5.5 million...
It's not explained how 10m bopd becomes 20m bopd.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/04/09/Oil-prices-surge-amid-potential-deal-between-OPEC-Russia/5481586446848/
Not sure where 20m bopd can come from without the US, but we shall see.
Oil
As the OPEC + virtual meeting kicks off, oil prices extended their gains after reports that Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached a deal on deep oil cuts and that OPEC ++ are talking about cuts as large as 20 million bpd. As is with every OPEC meeting, many plot twists are to be expected. It is clear no one wants to be short going into this meeting, but they might be ready to fade any major rally.
https://www.marketpulse.com/20200409/us-open-fed-steroids-6-6-million-jobless-claims-dollar-fed-actions-opec-eyeing-20m-cut-deal-gold-stronger/
turbulence on the o.p front - to be expected I suppose
Genel having an off day today been poor all day? Gkp having a go albeit has lagged behind! Stronger day across the board, had about 135p in mind today for Genel
3:57 Vienna time, OPEC+ starts in 3 mins.
MOSCOW/DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia and Russia still need to resolve differences over plans for deep global oil production cuts, a Russian source and an OPEC source said on Thursday, hours before the start of talks between OPEC, Russia and others over efforts to prop up prices.
“I’m not sure how Russia and Saudi Arabia would be able to iron out their differences today, it all could be stretched out,” the Russian source told Reuters...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-opec-differences/saudi-russia-still-at-odds-over-plans-for-oil-cuts-hours-before-talks-sources-idUSKCN21R0VE