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Thanks a lot,mole,
Armoured bear it's not that easy to transfer an asset when you owe alot of debt unless you take the debt with you. Whether you realised it or not that has always been one of the greatest risks here due to the high level of debt to revenue the company has run. As with any debt it's the serviceability that matters not the debt itself as long as it's borrowed against an asset that's worth more than the debt.
You can't easily transfer an asset to an entity connected to yourself and leave debt behind.
However, if you default or can't pay and a capital restructure results then you can never rule out a management buy out of the asset at a steep discount when a company is distressed. But we would get to vote on that.
The greatest risk has always been Outrider working with the management on such a venture. That is exactly what happened at Madagascar oil. In our case the board to date have done the opposite and took on Outrider directly rather than acquiesce which could have happened in 2016/17. Indeed the board seem to have been forced to convert all their own debt into shares with a lock in and go unsecured. It's things like that which show they are aligned to shareholders.
So whilst I'd never rule anything out here I remain broadly of the view that inspire of the silence it's not because we have been forgotten and forsaken but things have not progressed how they needed/hoped they would with both Outrider and arbitration.
The politics is now fully on display which has for a long time been one of the other major risks for the company.
The risk to your investment is greater from Outrider and the GG than Steve and Zaza running off with a contested asset. You can never rule out an offer but in this case I think the protagonist would be Outrider if that happenned which might explain in part why they want shares Steve and Zaza pledged. Either because they have value, to excercise leverage. Last we heard the company only had @1bn shares headroom left. So we can't get dilluted that way without an AGM.
It's the unfortunate interaction of the Outrider debt and the threat to the asset by GG that has made this a difficult situation. It's hard to raise equity or borrow when your asset is at risk. In FRR case it's faced a double whammy from Outrider and the GG.
There are a couple of things that could prevent such a rip off.
SN comes from oil nobility and would not want to be associated with such a travesty.
ZZ is a proud Georgian and probably feels the same.
Why involve US senators when the plan is to rip off everyone?
However it is always easier to cope with many people who despise you when you have a couple of million in the bank.
With all the different companies, asset transfers etc. even if somehow FRR or whatever offshoot survives , how likely is it that we'll get anything? What's to stop Zaza and co. just liquidating FRR and riding off into the sunset with one of the other companies that they've formed holding anything that's left of worth?
What's to stop any major deal being with one of these new companies and uis getting nothing?