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Agree Jonathan, but out if the 3 us has to benumber 1 choice. China have their own agenda and are winning in Asia (land grab, curtail democracy).
GD want to be pro west imo, nato integration, closer ties with europe/ US, the alternative options are not good. Ivanvishvilli is looking out for himself and russia.
Keysersoze. I don't think it's just a binary choice between Russia and the U.S. that Georgia want to have closer ties with.
Those little yella fellas will want to get back at the orange one any way they can.
https://agenda.ge/en/news/2020/2190
I think FRR still have the edge to win block 12 but its in the balance whether we reach a deal by the 27th.
As I said last week, zaza going in hard, GD will also play and act hard, but for them it will be a mistake, blunder and we are seeing the results of that now. GD can't terminate contract, zazas condition imho, this is law, otherwise whats to say they can't terminate it after a GD election win. They'll find something to beat FRR with.
I read in the earlier posts today that US doesn't want to harm the public through cutting aid, true, however, the suggestion of curtailing aid, will cause some public concern and is likley to win over votes for the opposition. Zaza is making a mistake by not mentioning enough about why GD is putting so much at risk when they claim there is no oil, the oligarchy know there is oil and they want to steal it from the public.
Its morally and ethically corrupt for a company to spend half billion and be asked to leave.
GD can gain som face if they come out positivley by the 27th, they could then demand/ make trade agreements and go into thd election positive. If they win election, they could still loose legal battle with FRR if they don't reach agreement with FRR. However, they will have lost US support, it will be too late then to pretend that ur on the US side. If FRR loose legally, GD will still loose long term. US will have lost confidence and Trust in GD, however US will have to keep GG on side by providing economic trade. They dont want GD to look at russia for support. But will fight for regime change.
Im not sure if theres been a vote on whether Georgians want closer ties with US or Russia would be interesting to know.
I also, think there are likley to be additional sanctions on individuals like ivanishvilli if no deal is reached by the 27th. The pressure is on him, to give up.
Zaza needs cash and needs to win Hope in court, they'll need this money to fight GD in court for wrongful termination of contract. Hope, won't have much to loose as i understand, any loss now is coveren by insurers.
I for one would like a deal by the 27th. Enough is enough, shareholders are tired for this to drag on.
Have a good weekend.
That about sums it up, ODR. Wing and a prayer time.
Good evening all
We seem to be in a place none of us wanted to be with our investments or expected to be. What happens from here?
Under political pressure the GG have seemingly offered an olive branch of an agreement to FRR, but, firstly, these may only be words, and secondly Zaza has openly rejected the advance and actually ramped up his attacks on the Government.
He clearly believes he cannot work with the current administration. In the arbitration result document, he had stated that we had been intimidated and blocked constantly by the government but was unable to provide any evidence of such.
The relationship seems to be broken. So where does this leave us investors? Well we have no choice. We have to accept Zaza's hardball approach, supported, to some degree by the US. It looks like Zaza believes regime change is our only hope. So that is what we must hope for if the election happens in October. We have the 27 July deadline but I now suspect that may pass by with nothing much happening (although that is a pure guess) as the GG have no time left to do anything much and may not want to be seen to take our asset.
Zaza is a driven man and, as a massive shareholder, is aligned with us. So hopefully there remains a possibility of a positive result ... eventually.
Fingers still crossed.
GLA