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You see D, you have turned me around a bit on the TP review thing. before I dismissed it and now I think it is a relevant indicator, certainly worth adding some weight to in the decision making process. So I thank you very much for that.
Cheers Wyn! I can see your plan is a good one, and may still pan-out! Would only take a couple of RNSs.
Unusually, I have the go-ahead (Mrs DG works in the gas industry) to stick with He1 through to drilling results but it'd be easier to do that with a bigger Avct buffer-pot in the bag.
Your lack of allegiance to a particular seems to work well. I am emotionally attached to Eve for sure; I think it will deliver in the end and is a good foil to the high immediate risks elsewhere. Also, being in the blue with Eve takes away the stress. There are bound to be peaks ahead.
The Eve CBD deal hasn't even got the product out there yet and is sure to be well received when it arrives. TP reviews do imply revenue will be up again next time too. I know you're not a TP fan but hopefully you too will add a review :-)
My plan D, was to for AVCT to be about 800p by now and for half of that to go into HE1 which would go up to 100p and then half of that to go more into AGL!!!
(I mean, its not much to ask....now I will only be a millionaire instead of a multi-millionaire... Oh well, such are the day dreams of a trader...;0))
The stocks I am in now are all longer term (ie months rather than weeks and there are various milestones for them all to complete for further SP rises to take place so, I will wait and see if these milestones are successfully completed and then reassess.
Its all down to where I think the quickest return will come from. For instance after the disappointing BMN results I have sold them and put more into HE1 and AVCT. I fully expect to return to BMN in the coming weeks/months... possibly....)
I have not a jot of "loyalty" to any of the companies I buy into... its all about me.....)
In the words of Bette Midler..." That's enough about me, lets talk about you... What do you think about me?"
typo of course; 'de-risk a bit' with He1
(Wyn, I can't resist asking; is you plan – you must have one – to derrick a bit with He1 before mid-June?!
I have a plan in the morning, and a plan in the afternoon, but they are opposite to one another other!)
Sorry folks.
Broker, the bit you are missing is that EVE is losing money (albeit not much) and EVE have said they are using the cash pile to develop the French market.
if sales don't increase then profitability will remain elusive and the cash balance will be less.
I don't think its quite as knife edge as that but it could be a bit of a long haul before and substantial rerating takes place.
Broker, worst case scenario (for eve) is that the covid era boost to their revenue will be short lived and the losses will grow again as people return to the high street. Ultimately, eve would go bust.
They are boosting spending in France to increase sales there and that marketing spend is going to deplete the net cash of £8.4M you mention. The bank balance will definitely be lower when they next report.
I'm of the opinion that the good sales will continue (hopefully France will kick-in too) and profits will arrive (sooner or later – but will arrive).
When shop reopened last summer after the first lockdown, eve continued to have buoyant sales through the summer and autumn. November Black Friday was super-busy for them. Hopefully the same will be true now, and they have a wider range of products now.
If you look at trustpilot reviews, https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/www.evesleep.co.uk/transparency the last 12 months have received more reviews than ever before. We are heading towards 260 review in May and that beats May 2020 when the boost was already underway. They do collect TP reviews slightly differently now but there wasn't a sudden change either way when the method altered so I personally don't see that as unduly significant.
They have an excellent CEO, Cheryl Calverley.
Revenues in the first two months of 2021 increased 16%, representing an acceleration from the last quarter of 2020, where growth was held back by some supply constraints.
Again what am I missing?
2020 Revenue £25M.
Gross Profit £14.5M.
Net cash £8.4M.
Current market cap £12.8M.
The valuation is exceptionally low. What am I missing?