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Its always difficult to know when to buy (I find selling actually easier).
I guess it goes back to a "plan" thing. What criteria does the individual have for picking a stock? is it the sector, the FA side?
Once decided what's the time frame, what's the expected gain, what price do you want to pay. and why?
(There was a chap on MMAG that wanted to buy when the SP was 35p but was waiting for a 25% fall. So I asked what made him think that would happen. No reason he said, but would only buy between 25p-30p. The stock is now 40p (and was 44p). To me that was so illogical as to be beyond comment.
Harl looks attractive now as buy there is on closer inspection a16.5p ish support, but I have no funds to use to take advantage. If it falls further than 15p is the bigger support in which case I might stump up some money from somewhere
I think I posted that I could see a AVCT drifting up to 175-185p prior to science day but that target is a while back now as we are close to recent all time highs (over the last 12 months) so its starting to get into no mans land for me to forecast the upside. Given the nature of its model it will be news driven anyway. So it will push it to overbought from time to time no doubt and I will sell and hopefully buy lower down and maybe try & cream a few extra percent in between the news releases.
Eve was very painful for you others I know, and I have had the same experience previously. All we can do is learn from it but at the same time try not to let it affect future decisions. (A bit like getting a divorce and then not trusting any body else thereafter, all these other people are not the partner that you split up with, so don't miss out on future happiness by the scars of that relationship. sort of thing).
Thanks for that Wyn, conclusively not a good idea to set a stop loss then. I did have one on SNG a long time ago, the day the sp fell off the cliff, but managed to cancel it in time. Having said that the SNG price has not recovered.
I know you bought HARL but haven't really followed it. It should be ok medium term though? As you say, another big order and that would really give them a boost.
AVCT surely must rise in the lead to science day. I broke my rule and put more money in with the intention of making a small % before science day and selling in advance. I shall still make the 'sell' but it'd be tempting to hang on for the news. I'll save 5% for sure if I pay off some mortgage so will stick to the plan and sell. I dare say AVCT will still have some highs and lows even on great results.
MMAG has been good for Yanis and you. Up more than 300% since I bookmarked it. After eve I was nervous of something I didn't know much about whereas you were ok as you only had to look at the chart :-)
Morning D, my experience of setting stops is back when I day traded indecis and the guys training me explained how the market worked and always recommended never to put in a formal stop as they (MM's) can just push the price to it, and automatically trigger it, take the money and move back up. For every sell there is a buyer. So for example if a Stock is selling at 60p and they have a buyer who wants to buy at 58p and someone has logged a stop at 58p.... well you can guess what happens. All anyone else sees is a dip to 58p and then back to 60p, thinking "I wonder what that was all about?"
Anyways, these City traders told me never to put a stop in the market. (It was a pretty instructive few days, they worked for Bank of America's trading desk and had some good examples to back up the theory.)
The biggest take away I got was patience and not to break the plan the individual has devised that works. Something I still struggle with to this day. (as my recent buy of HARL proved yet again. Ha!)
Hi Wyn, so you do think that MMs can see stop-losses if one sets one? Mine are usually for relatively small amounts and there must be thousands of stops at every price, but maybe I should do like you (not that I set them often).
I missed the COPL RNS yesterday so was completely oblivious to the fall, only noticing the 'rise' today. I don't have that much in there (less now!) so not a huge problem but someone on the bb said they had a buy order for £10k worth of shares and it activated while the shares were in free-fall yesterday. Made me think never to set buy orders..
I'm a few £100 from being blue with AVCT now. Still a long wait off £8 but moving in the right direction!
FA = Fundamental analysis (all company info, accounts, PE ratios etc ) in an effort to "value" the company to see if its out of sync with its market valuation (shares in issue x SP)
POV: short hand for point of view
Certainly from a TA POV I think ONC is a reasonable entry point right now. Just because there is (in this instance) a support at 58p does not mean it WILL fall to there to test it, Plus its close to the 61p support and when placing stops the MM's can see what we all can see so normally push it a little lower just to see if it will flush some trades out before the shares rise again.
It becomes a bit of cat and mouse game with the MM's as to where to place stops so you need to add (imo) a bit of wiggle room so you don't get whipsawed out of a stock.
(FWIW I never place a stop on a book so that it can be seen, I just have a figure that if hit, will trigger me to sell.)
Wyn, thanks for sharing your detailed opinions! Good read as always. I agree, the price action both indicate shareholder exit and a possible rights issue coming. It's not possible to deliver on a 700m+ contract without significant funding to back the project. So the selling after such wonderful news suggest to me that an II wants out and may not want to fully participate in RI if any. I think a good time would be after the rights issue if it does happen IMO. What do u mean by FA POV?
As for your comments AGL.. I agree completely. Wait and see.
I added some ONC today. RSI still at 50 though.. not sure if it will fall further or support will hold and hopefully upwards to 70s+. IMO, DYOR.
Hi CI,
I was previous on Harl yesterday getting in before end of close prices. (I really should no better! ha ha)
So its in a range with 18p being a bit of a support and if it goes then 15p would be the next support. needs to close above 22p to indicate further gains.
From an FA POV there is clearly a big seller presumably crystalising the gains from around 5p? but who knows what the reason is, (it might be something else, or a whole host of reasons), there is talk of a cash raise, so that might be depressing the price too.
My gut feel is that they need another decent sized contract win to show that they really have turned a corner to secure their future , at that stage it might give investors the confidence to pile in.
As for AGL, that's in no mans land right now. the bottom is clear at 23.90p and the rsi was 20 which is over sold so the rise was on the cards, so fa so good. but...has it stalled?
The high was 32.5p then it tried to break it, but stalled at 31.25p and then had a 3rd go and stalled at 30.5p.
So that suggests it will fall back further. However it is close to the top for a breakout so would not take much to break 32,5p.
Ultimately you can make an argument for either direction but given the conflicting signals I would wait until it closed above 32.5p And thats the thing. Its an odds game and the odds (to me) looking at the chart, are not strong enough to bet on either direction.
Anyway, just my 2p's worth... GL
Any new thoughts on Angle? drifted back down to 28p, RSI now 38.. heading towards the nearly oversold territory.
My guess HARL is down today cos Killik & Co LLP still selling their holdings, seems they are keen to exit from their pattern shown in the RNS IMO, DYOR. I would caution buying too much until there is a clearer indication of them halting sells. IMO, DYOR.
Thanks for your post on ONC. Also comments on HARL. I am quite curious on ur thoughts for HARL, on what looks to be excellent news on the finalisation of 700m contract, why is it down? "Sell on the news". Cheers
Cheers wyn! I did buy a few Hemo with cash in my acc (available as I'd sold 20% of a slightly overbought share last week, to 'bed and ISA' it. I might have to break my rule to buy all my original stake again, back inside my ISA. Knowing how news gets delayed there I perhaps have a bit of time. Well done for selling some Hemo when you said it looked gravity defying.
Shares have a taken a bit of a hit due to an unexpected cash raise. However from a chart perspective they have fallen to a support so anyone thinking about entering you have the chart on your side (whatever thats worth!)
Anyway I have added (again fwiw! :0))
RUA: Worth keeping an eye on today as they’ve had a good distribution agreement announced just now.
Morning D, at least there is some respite after the EVE debacle for you and some others I think?
Anyway, long may it continue. GLA
(Copied from avct bb)
chemotherapy before and after surgeryToday 21:48
UK trial across three countries finds that giving patients chemotherapy before surgery was more effective
Giving bowel cancer patients chemotherapy before surgery cuts the risk of it coming back by 28%, according to the results of a trial experts are hailing as “fantastic”.
“A growing body of evidence is showing the value of pre-operative chemotherapy in several other cancers, and we believe that our results could transform how we approach colon cancer in the clinic,” said Dr Laura Magill, an associate professor at the Birmingham clinical trials unit.
Geoff Hoggard, from Leeds, who took part in the trial, said it came as a “huge shock” when he was diagnosed with bowel cancer in 2016. “I was willing to take any opportunity to get the most effective treatment,” he said.
Hoggard described having chemotherapy before and after surgery as “hard going”. Brain fog and severe tiredness took its toll on him, he added. “I kept going, thanks to the support of friends, family and my local church, who were a constant source of strength.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jan/19/new-treatment-strategy-cuts-risk-of-bowel-cancer-returning-by-28
AGL
Angle plc Ordinary 10p
30.00p
+3.05p +11.21%
Wyn, do you have a time machine?!
Could be another one of many, many, false dawns but Xeros up again, and up this year overall.
fwiw reversals are always the hardest to pick, or to put it another way the signs are less reliable.
Anyway, the recent low at 23.9 rsi 19.06 has support of the RSI being below 20 suggesting an upward move was most likely which indeed has happened.
There is a tentative RSI pattern which suggest this is in fact a reversal. A close above 32.5p would add more support to the reversal.
if yo want to risk it now then your stop would be 23p. the target price would 45p/46p so currently at 28p to buy you would risk 5p to gain 17p which is above 3-1 risk reward so thats ok.
Or you wait until 33p is breached and have a stop at 31p risking 2p for about 12p gain which is 6-1 risk reward.
You pays yer money and all that.. nothing is certain which is why you have stops so you don't incur too much loss when it turns out you were wrong. imo dyor etc etc
Hi guys, what are your thoughts on Angle Plc? RSI around 30 now... dropped back down to 27p. Is it oversold and are we touching bottom or more to go? Or wait and see and buy on a clearer indication of reversal?
Thanks Yanis...again...!!!
well spotted D
The reported trades on Xeros aren't fitting with the SP. There looked to be a couple of large sells yesterday but the SP went up nearly 5% so I assumed they were buys. Opposite happening today.
They have a habit of rising prior to some good news.
No, not for a few years. But I noticed they were low a while ago and might have been tempted had I not been so much in the red. I did buy them a few years ago at around 22p and sold at 44 only to see them go to ...160? Once they were back at 22 I did think the same could happen again but too risky, straight after eve.
were you in ilika as well, D?