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retail giant Amazon.com received regulatory approval to take over Whole Foods Market, Inc..... WTF
Would you compare a takeover of John Lewis or Harrords ?
This board is getting f***ed up 30% premium jesus .
'If we get a 30% premium, that's 36.4p/ share why would anyone pay more? '
If your £500k house with 5 acres of land was sitting on a gold mine with 3 ton of gold would 30% premium be ok ....
BRAIN has departed I say no more
There are value factors you can't value, things like the first mover advantage, last non consolidated Palladium play etc. These things add value but it's up to the buyers what premium they're willing to pay for such things. Standard valuating will only get you to the base level tbh, there isn't enough in the public domain to get any further than that on Eurasia. Bidding war competition adds further value as well, so if most are hitting around the £1 level with valuating, expect higher due to the added unknown value contributors.
All metals are all the EU critical raw materials list, it's another value adding factor, an odd one as it's at the base of a huge industrial revolution, the metals are critical to the revolution taking place. People are already seeing Tesla struggle with Nickel supplies, it's critical to his expansion plans in the revolution, these are factors you don't have in standard valuating, but you know something has to be attributed for them.
GLA
The main benefit of buying Monchetundra from Eurasia is that they've done all the donkey work, it's a pick up and go project, fully financed and fast to production with a set initial output via the ready to roll Sinosteel EPCF. First mover advantage with continued legal exclusivity areas as you expand, it's an absolute prize of a starting position. The choice of using Nittis as an initial position is a stroke of genius tbh, very well thought out by the geologists at Eurasia imho.
GLA
550km2 ftse, plenty pie for everyone -
" The Monchegorsk Complex comprises two spatially separate intrusions, covering an area of ~ 550 km2 : the predominantly ultramafic Monchepluton (~ 65 km2 ) and the mafic Main Ridge (~ 485 km2 ), which are separated by the Monchetundra Fault trending northwest (Fig. 2 inset). "
It's the complex that can be turned into an area to rival the Bushveld, it's very easy to understand when you have the historical geological data at hand, the area is colossal and layered -
https://orca.cf.ac.uk/112128/1/Critical%20Controls%20on%20the%20Formation%20of%20Contact-Style%20PGE-.pdf
GLA
I want the best possible outcome for the sale.
But all this b@llocks of £10, £35 a share go away and dream somewhere else.
Knobhead come back with some substance!
What are you on about?
I know everyone wants this deal pushed over the line. But am I the only one who since the beginning of the year has been wanting it to drag a little longer. . . .
just so that I start my 2021 ISA allowance with cheap EUA shares in it?!
If others are intending to do the same perhaps then we may see SP rising then?
Indeed there there are unique factors in play and blockbuster information not available in public domain is also possible. But I take these away the unexpected bonus rather thank already banking on it.
Next few weeks will be interesting. GLS.
Hi Billions
Agree - cant complain if we get double the AFC.
For the overseas investors, however, it will be a question of how desperately they want this asset / company. And, this is where I was coming from on the discount rate being used- If the overseas buyer really wants this then you cannot have this differential in the discount rate but I may be wrong.
Lots of green boxes on here today, news must be close.
Bottom line is at this stage of proceedings, no comments on this board will change the value of the deal.
Watching the share price go up from from July's opening at 15p was exciting, seeing the value of your portfolio increasing is fun but at the end of the day we all knew that wasn't our goal, our goal was to see our portfolios once a deal has been completed.
The BOD know what they have, the buyers will have full transparency in what they are being given access to should they want to buy it.
Highly likely to be a bidding war with all the limited information that we have been given, factoring in rises in the value of our basket and the increase in demand.
The game is nearly over, I'm 99.99% sure that a deal will go through at a very lucrative price for shareholders, because remember, the BOD have the exact same interest as you, maximising shareholder value with the substantial amount of shares they hold.
@ prof. Unfortunately non Russian investors will inevitably have the higher discount rate. If it is a domestic buyer then for sure it is less risk and maybe a higher price paid.
The AFC report is the level to go by with maybe an uplift for multiple bidders overpaying. We can uplift for metal prices but in reality long term prices are used rather than spot.
Double the AFC price would be amazing imo.
Hi Billions
The discount rate that has been used is UNJUSTIFIABLY high due to the country risk that has been factored in when compared to other countries such as Canada. This will change in my mind, particularly when the country is becoming open for inward investment.
Deano
And if my auntie had balls she would be my uncle. About as stupid as your comment.
@ prof. The discount rate that is used in the DFS and NPV calculations will be based on market and industry observations. The market value of other companies will be used to infer this.
@ CAW. That's exactly how it works. Funniest post I have read for a while.
Reading some posts here it would appear that the share price is the made up number. It will be the starting point almost every instance.
So if you wanted to by Tesla it would cost you 650 per a share if you follow your theory billions.
Bargain as a month ago it would have cost you 1000 per share
GLA
Billions
Can you show me one exploration company which may move onto a development phase that has been valued on the basis of a market value of another company's share. They are SIMPLY NOT.
Very entertaining watching day dreamers trying to justify the impossible.
Good post by dexter, but its important to note that first bid was at 6% over the closing price for Lionore. Which gives a closing bid of 54% over closing price. So deano was not talking nonsense like some.
I think the share price is a better indicator of value then some clowns with a calculator... you know who you are!!
They probably would laugh at 36.4p but if nobody bids higher we are mining it ourselves and that's not our expertise.
Deano1963
(1) How many mines are there in the world which can say they have 15m ounces PGM plus a potential further of, as pronounced by the co, of 25m ounces. Not many I can think of.
(2) Ignoring for a moment the other metals including Rhodium, we have average price of $1900 between Palladium and Platinum.
(3) Currently, Gold miners are in a similar situation in that big gold finds have simply disappeared.
With gold, the in ground value of Reserve find is $300 per ounce whereas it us $100 for a Resource find.
(4) If you applied similar matrix to EUA :
(a) the 15m ounces at $300 could fetch = $ 4.5B
(b) the additional resource of 25m oz @ $100 could fetch = $2.5B
(c) WK and other metals fetches say 11p per share
(d) All of the above gives about $2.44 which is my target price.
(e) PGM - although an industrial metal, its significance has only just been realised and
(f) There is no reason or other macro or geopolitical reason that PGM cannit fetch similar inground values as gold.
(g) As with gold find, where the prize is bigger, there will definitely be a bidding war - that's one of the reasons I think there has been a delay.
Anything less and I think the management can walk away from the deal.
think the BOD would laugh at that offer!
Yes agree with Dexter and Mac but I won’t be surprised if it goes for higher. GLA
We're looking at something in line with the dexter example, multiple parties have been interested for quite some time now, to get it you have to be the dominant bidding party, no ifs no buts about it.
GLA
This a post of mine from a while ago so most have probably seen it however there is a lot of new names here that may not have. I just wanted to share again the potential of what can happen with a bidding war and when someone wants your assets.
I always find this acquisition between two bidders good to read and also shows what can be paid by a Co if they want the asset.
I find it staggering the difference between bids. Throw a third or fourth bidder in the mix and let the fireworks commence. This is a strong possibility with EUA IMO, just takes a bit of patience until a first bid is announced.
Keep in mind this is 2 bidders, we have potential of multiple! And rhodium now about 28k per oz
First bid by Xstrata $4.6bn
counter by Norilsk $5.3bn
counter by Xstrata $6.3bn
Winning bid Norilsk $6.8bn
Making the winning bid roughly 48% higher than opening bid. Anything is possible, especially with the PGM's prices increasing at a steady rate. GLA