Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
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I agree horse.mouth its why I said and I quote "Obviously we wont get that for a sale but that is how I have calculated why I am investing unless I have got it totally wrong"
The point is the assets we are selling are an appreciating and finite asset so we have no idea what anyone is prepared to pay hence the speculation on here. I am hoping for anything above £1 but we shall see
daveh 7.18 post. with respect dave your calculations may be correct but a buyer will never pay out anything like that. remember that a bird in the hand is worth more than ten in the bush! it is highly unlikely that a purchaser would pay even 10% of your estimated figure, possibly 5 or 6%, i for one would be happy with that because that would be money in my hands. buyers have to consider all scenarios, i.e. war, earthquakes, storm and weather, theft by the Russian government and so on. nothing guaranteed on their returns, all a gamble. anyway good luck with your holding.
thanks DaveH
what I cannot quite determine is the distinction between 'proven / probable' reserves and what is 'resource' or best guess.
more reading required on my part.
ftsedow post to power of 78 looks useful
cheers
There’s been hundreds of calculations here on the board ,,,
Why can’t they let’s us know how much they are willing to accept at least ,,surely it’s not to much at ask of them , there’s got to be a figure there after ,,, GIVE US AN IGLOO PLEASE....
Plus I think you were mixing ounces expressed in pd equivalent and in the JV platinum equivalent oz
Well for notes I would say you are missing
-lowest cost extraction globally
-copper, nickel, cobalt and other metals on top
-palladium and rhodium likely to increase average pgm price significantly
-continuations at depth
- west Kytlim and maybe gold tailings or volchetundra
- rare large scale opportunity
And maybe some negatives
-typical ownership 80 to 68 percent
-still lots to sort and pay for and some proving up
-price likely to be between 5 and 25 percent of in ground value.
These maybe just about even out and make 1 to 10 pound a potential deal value given you took out extraction cost already at near 50 per cent.
Hi Dave,
Your calculations are mostly right apart from a few. We only own 80% of MT, and only have licences for 13m at Mt. I presume we have applied for the licence for the rest of the area to make it up to the 41moz. I agree this share should be well higher and the only reason i can think of is because Russia is a very unstable place to have a company but i'm sure we will be ok in the end.
My rough calculation and why I have invested is this
Eurasia own an asset which has a calculable value and they are selling that asset the unknown is what value a 3rd party will pay for that asset. My calculation is based on the total amount of assets EUA own the value of that asset and the cost of obtaining that asset
EUA owns MT with 40moz and 75% of a JV in the Kola region of 104moz with the option to buy the other 25% but for the purposes of this calculation is ignored. That is straightforward and calculable so Eurasia owns 40moz plus 76moz (104 x75%) a total of 116moz
The value of this is the equivalent price of platinum which currently stands at $1200
The cost to extract this asset is unknown but using the all-in sustaining costs (AISC) used at Stillwater as an example of $575 then the total net value of the asset can be calculated.
The number of shares are 2.758 billion
Calculation is
Total assets x Value of asset less cost of asset extraction = Net asset value
Net asset value divided by number of shares in issue
116,000,000 x (1200 - 575) = 72,500,000,000 or 72.5bn
72,500,000,000 / 2,758,701,681 = $26.28 per share or £19 per share
Obviously we wont get that for a sle but that is how I have calculated why I am investing unless I have got it totally wrong
thanks for the responses
mac4671, that link indicates Implats bid (2019) was double that of Sibanyes per oz which perhaps accounts for the Stillwater debt mentioned and increase Pd. value. ($1600 seems a reasonable average the for Pd. price in 2019).
$2800/$1600 x $200/Moz gives $350/Moz as a current buying rate x 2Moz at MT = $700,000,000.
Perhaps Im only seeing what I want to but current market cap doesn't really account for much beyond the proven and probable....so what value the 40Moz at MT, 104Moz in the JV. and the other resource...
Cheers
Con
Ftsedow don’t worry I’ve been keeping an eye on his page / recent figures for months as I do on here and the telegram group. I just take an interest in each PI’s valuations of the SP out of interest?!
I believe that Stillwater had some debt. The potential here for a larger buyout value in comparison is compelling. Most informed valuations take EUA above a £1 share price and given recent developments £2 plus looks a reasonable estimate.
Cheers mate. So what does that work out p/s?
evening all
In 2017 Sibanye paid Stillwater $2.2bn for 19.9Moz proven and probable reserves which = $111/Moz buying rate.
Palladium nearly 4x the $700 it was then but platinum increase only c.15% .So updated buying rate of $200/Moz say (conservative?) gives $400,000,000 against the 2Moz proven and probable reserves at MT (£300,000,000).
EUA sits at £750m which by these rough numbers suggests more than 'proven and probable' is factored in to some degree.
However £450m difference seems wholly inadequate for potential resource of 40Moz at MT plus 104Moz in the JV. Is this wrong?
Cheers
UTB