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Citic is a chinese state, sinosteel is chinese state, there is a lot of chinese state involvement here.
Now we are witnessing rostec move into the monchegorsk area, they're russian state.
We could be looking at a state vs state, china vs russia bidding war here. Russian consortium with state involvement vs Chinese consortium with state involvement, how big would that bidding war go?
GLA
There is a EPC contract in place aandi, part of the contract is a agreed upon production output -
"Engineering Procurement Construction and Financing (EPCF) Contract
An EPCF contract to develop the mine at Monchetundra is already in place with Sinosteel, a state owned Chinese corporation focused on mining, and was agreed in October of 2016 (see RNS dated 10 October 2016. The contract provides for Sinosteel to undertake the mine and processing plant construction and commissioning on a turnkey, commercial arms-length basis. 85 per cent (or US$149,600,000) of the contract value has been arranged as debt-based by Sinosteel with this element of plant construction costs to remain on the Sinosteel balance sheet until such time as the plant is operating at full capacity and to designed specification."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/w3qvvdr
Because sinosteel did all their due diligence and agreed to keeping the loan on their sheet until it is operating at full capacity, then it should be pretty much taken as fact that it will make it to production, or at least that the production risk has been pretty much eliminated through that contract.
There is also this -
"Off-take agreement negotiations are progressing with Glencore (the third largest international commodity trader and resource project investor), Sinosteel (China's state owned EPC contractor and a major mining investor and commodities importer into China) and other major players that cannot be disclosed at this stage, for the entirety of the life of mine output. It is hoped an agreement will be reached with one of these parties in the near future and this agreement will integrate with Eurasia's already agreed, and signed, Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Financing ("EPCF") contract with Sinosteel which includes financing of $150 million as a 10 year facility at 6m LIBOR plus 3.5 per cent."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/rgj43vr
GLA
There is also the 80% ownership then 10% bank fee to deduct.
See the spreadsheet I made comparing metal valve over the past 16 years, sale price of north american palladium, KEV (finland), WAT (underground S.A being developed), LionOre (huge nickel mine)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OwDqgjrSb9u25czZ3WLDte8WNI5_m_jd/view?usp=sharing
I didn't deduct the 10% bank fees either, so the valuations in green at the bottom still require 10% reduction (if fees are 10%)
The range of transactions is between 3 and 20%.
Bidding war going on and who knows here, as we don't have the mine built yet we should be valued less but there is a smelter plant just down the road so that, as mentioned is a huge plus point.
My target as always, having similarly computed assets npv etc, is 75p fair value.
A bidding war would push this up. This also does not take into consideration that this is the last non consolidated PGM resource of this magnitude in the world. Exciting times for us all. GLA
other than 55c = 43.6p
Thronegames - you're right re exact figures
Numbers I gave was just a rough estimate re how to put an approximate order of magnitude on the valuation
I did a full on valuation early on during suspension (the Gulag Capital excel file) comparing all of the key methods (trading comps, M&A comparables, DCF and EV/resource), I ended up arriving at the midpoint between these methods of around 70p. All of the major recent valuations put value between the 50-80p range (GMF782 puts it at 78p, ACF at 54-60p)
Same here re 'not used to such returns' ! I think might be one of the fastest multibaggers on record in fact
I sold a small clip (11k shs) on the open to 'feel the cash' and then ended up adding quite a bit over Friday. Am holding till the end here!
it's been brought up in the past...what if there is only a partial sale?
Erixlie, $1.5 bn / 2.75 bn shares = 55c a share = around 50p, not 75p as you say, which lines up with the ACF estimate. Have I got something wrong? Thanks for your analysis though, very sensible re. the 4% valuation on metals in ground. Either way, unless there is some negative news this is going to take off again tomorrow. I'm not used to being in a share giving such incredible returns. I'm more used to "if only I had bought that". I did sell 25% on Thurs but holding for 50p.
Valuation is fairly straightforward - rule of thumb shortcut is up to 4% of in situ value (this is shortcut often applied for gold projects, PGM assets trade at a premium because they are scarce and more competition from acquirors)
4% * 1500 (basket price) * 15moz = $900m on the low end valuing this as a gold asset
EUA shld trade at a substantial premium to the valuation of a similar-sized gold deposit because:
- only PGM asset globally with near-term potential to make it to production
- fully permitted + financing locked in
- close to infrastructure (incredibly rare - tons of $ saved on building roads, smelter etc)
hence the $1.5bn+ price target (70p+)
Just cos you don’t understand doesn’t make it it bull. If you did some research then you might have more of a clue.. Are you, by any chance, a flat-earther mryummy?
We can start with the 30 odd bn $ worth of precious metals...
If its not the right deal we can mine it ourselves.
Flanks final signed docs very soon, adding more value.
Future valuation ...
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/aim-eua/eurasia-mining-shares
lot ppl bull****** on this, 2.7bill shares and its gonne reach 7 pounds and 1.35 and 1 pound ??? how ?
i just dont understand
pls explain ppl just curies so im expecting millions ppl gonna pounce on this come monday morning?