Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Mac, I’m with you on this and also keeping my feet firmly on the ground with a valuation based upon and around those RNS quants. Let’s all not be naive enough to think though that any potential sale will be limited to this in an area with such potential. My expectation is that those who are seriously interested here will be looking also at the additional potential and value which is why I think our EUA team have and continue to work tirelessly upon enhancing our established assets.
No, it's all fair enough alta, just as long as they don't forget about the extra potential. I fully agree, they should do plenty of their own research before making any decision.
And yeah, i can't believe you switched like that, and have now turned into the board deramper, how very dare you lol.
I'm still at £1.17 myself, until something materially changes , and it is quoted in RNS.
GLA
Alta, its their poor judgement or laziness that will get them stung, not rampers or derampers. Who knows what a ramp is or a deramp anyway until the final offer is known. if it went for £8 that makes Rowka a deramper, if it goes for £1 it makes him a ramper. It's all about perception.
And yeah Nitrokev I'm not one of those people, but I am certainly one of those who has the calculator app open a lot to see what these figures translate to lol. GLA!
Ha ha it’s fine, I can see how it could be misread
Sorry Nitrokev I completely misread that, happens after spending all reading things on here! Apologies :)
Mac, I've agreed with every post I've read from you since you always point people to information to help them research so I hope you don't think I was having a dig at you. Just gets my back up seeing sky high valuations and aired that to the BB in general. If even one newcomer decided to go away and read an RNS before investing on the promise of a certain price then I'll consider my post worth it. Benefits people to get into a habit of doing their own research. Maybe that's just the academic in me but I think that's reasonable.
Nitrokev, yep you better believe I've plunked all of the numbers in to see what it would do to my holding lol. £1.50 and I retire at 28. We'll I'd give up the lecturing and stick to my statistics so I'm not too bored. I don't think £2 is nonsense especially if we get all the additional goodies but I do think away up at £7 is. Just my view but maybe I'm in the minority and we will soon find out!
Can't believe I feel like the resident deramper with a 80p - £1.20 target lol. Bring back Frankey and Spikeyj to take this heat.
Anyway. I'm off to the beach.
GLA
Alta
What happens when flanks licenses are confirmed dazaliam, what happens if extra figures appear on top of previously stated FS studies?
There are a few things going on that may add substantial value at certain points.
You would then habe to factor any premium on top of the new trading sp at the time.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens with it all tbh. Either way, it's up from here i would say.
GLA
I don't think that he said that it was nonsense but that there are people that have said that?
I think you missinderstood me, I absolutely don’t think they are nonsense!
Nitrokev people will want to know how you came to these conclusions, and what your value would be then to come out with this statement that £2+ is nonsense.
For every person that says estimates of £2, £3.50 or even £7.20 are nonsense, I’m willing to bet you’ve all done the calculation to see what that would mean with your holdings
That's exactly right stix, but we can guess what they're up to from what they've provided in RNS and what has appeared on social media.
You don't include figures in a FSP RNS with a disclaimer for no reason. If at least part of those extra figures were not to be applied for, then there would be no reason to include the figures in the FSP RNS.
GLA
The board are in total control here !
They are going to get the best value for share holders as possible.
place your bets , the wheel is spinning , we just have to wait for it to stop .
no body on this bb can alter that now.
I have provided the DFS quote from RNS which applies to CKE, who were mentioned last oct.
Here is alexei boucher, our exploration manager, pictured with AP -
https://www.instagram.com/p/B-ZhwV-jEjC/?igshid=e6ceqkq8kpw0
Like i say, any new investor can draw their own conclusions as to what is happening.
GLA
I have never quoted and price figures for a sp at anywhere near that evel, but i will show the numbers that appear in RNS. 40Moz appears in RNS with that disclaimer in the FSP, there is absolutely no reason to include that figure if they were not looking to apply for it, none whatsoever.
Both CKE and AP have been working away, both provide a similar service, it's up to any new investor to research what they do, and then decide what is applicable and what is not.
Exploration is very much happening.
GLA
Great write up. Thank you. Altruistic also. Good to see.
Moneymaker,
I base all my thoughts on the stuff below, particularly the last quote increasing the production plan since they are from the annual report and the FSP RNS. Don't see it as contradictory as it is in an RNS and wouldn't get signed off by NOMAD if it was false information.
Mac,
Fully agree that we have a ton in the pipeline which could unlock some of that additional 21Moz but for me until we have applications RNS'd then I'm not including it into my valuation to avoid ramping to new investors.
“The total amount controlled by Eurasia and under flanks exclusivity right application is c.15Moz of PGM as per the State Cadastre with an additional c. 4Moz also within the 5km exclusivity area.”
(https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/xjypn1x)
“As previously announced the application for the flanks areas at Monchetundra received Ministry of Defence approval (see RNS dated 17 December 2019). Approval by the Federal Security Service (FSB), the last remaining federal body, whose approval is required for the flanks licence application, was also subsequently confirmed to the Company by Sevzapnedra (see RNS dated 9 April 2020). The Directors expect the license to be issued by Sevzapnedra (the regional licensing body) soon as per standard process.”
(https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/xjypn1x)
“MONCHETUNDRA
A fully funded development project; with 15moz palladium dominated PGM resource, it is one of the largest assets globally not owned by a PGM major.
Asset overview:
Ownership: 80%
Operating Partners: Sinosteel, Central Kola Expedition
Region: Murmanskaya Oblast, Russian Kola Peninsula bordering Finland.
Mine type: Open pit
Licensing: Mining license to 2038. Financed via Sinosteel EPCF.
Status: Preparation for production.
Product/Offtake: PGM and base metals concentrate (Palladium dominant, Platinum, Gold, Nickel and Copper).
Infrastructure: Road, Rail, Sea Hub, Power and labour. Close to Finish border
Mine life: >20 years
Target production: 1,000koz at full capacity
Exploration upside: Expanding mineable reserve base via acquisition of adjacent licences.”
(https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/eurasia_mining_plc/news/rns/story/rmom18x_).
Only reason I post any of that is because new investors are going to see this ever increasing nonsense now over £7 sale, shove money in, not get £7 and be annoyed and dismiss peoples research in the future. I know several new investors that are utterly convinced of a £5+ sale and refuse to believe anything else (even though using their own calcs they never get anywhere near £5). I think its utterly wrong because they have invested based on the word of someone else and although I doubt anyone can lose money on this (unless they are short, Sam, or Tom), that blind faith in ramping/ deramping will eventually lead them to get stung.
Broker notes are indicative based upon set criteria being met. They show a companies NPV, which is how most developers estimate a projects worth and decide whether or not to proceed.
Detailed ones are very useful tools. Many people just look at the ‘valuation’ and get disgruntled if the share price doesn’t match it.
Broker notes aren't worth the paper they are written on imo
Something we know is definitely happening is this, as CKE have been contracted in to complete it -
"A Detailed Project Design Report was contracted to Central Kola Expedition and approved by Murmansk Nedra in October 2019. The report sets out the statutory work required to complete a detailed Feasibility Study (Russian standard equivalent of a Definitive Feasibility Study) and a revised reserves statement building on the existing Feasibility Study and state approved reserves."
GLA
shouldn’t* be factoring
Although Eurasia do not currently hold licences to surrounding areas and even if we are currently not applying for these, there has to be an added value factor to any buyer due to the proximity.
Interesting read, but saying you can only use figures that have been RNS’d as EUA owning them and then saying use 15m oz in your valuation is very contradictory seeing as we haven’t been granted the additional 13m oz licence yet.
I posted a breakdown yesterday on here of the average time period for each application. Working off the average, the additional 13m oz will likely drop towards the end of Sept (assuming that it is actually granted). Using your logic though, which I agree with to a degree, you should even be factoring in the 13m oz at the present time.
Very presumptuous saying an easy 4-5 bags if buying in now, considering the only broker note we’ve seen on the matter (and released on EUA’s website) indicated a value of 54p, inclusive of the flanks.
It was this man, who first brought up the larger figures during an interview, almost as if he wanted his share of a payment from such things -
"ALEXEI CHURAKOV
Strategic advisor to the board
Mr. Churakov is a former Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley senior investment banker specialized in the mining sector. He has a background in cross-border M&A transactions operating from Moscow, London and New York. Alexei brings his extensive experience in mining M&A as well as maintaining a hands on approach at operational level."
I guess we'll just have to wait and see exactly what happens.
GLA