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L3, I think you and L7 will catch up in predictions on 2020 also.
Just like last half year.
and if production now 80k + in oct. It will do even better then my estimates.
Therapist: Thank you for the table. Could you please post the set of graphs, as well?
Can I ask what is the reason behind the difference b/w your and Londoner's October's produtcion, i.e., 86,206 vs. 82,777?
The good news is that a strong November and December, i.e., 77500 in both months, is all that is needed for FY daily production to be above 70Kboepd, thus, above guidance. Ditto for Kraken. If all goes well, i.e., November and December average 47500, FY daily production would be 36.5Kboepd, thus above guidance. Speaking of Kraken, a very strong performance in 2020, i.e., reaching 85 loads, (so 42.5MMbbls) would get it really close to reaching break even (ignoring financing costs) of the investment made up to and including 2019.
gkb47: Which energy companies in Fuel Cells and in Energy Storage using VRFBs have caught your eye, if I may ask?
I agree w/ you on Drax not being a true green energy producer, given that pellets have to come all the way from the US.
But, at some point they had ambitious plans for CC.
Pelle: If you read Londoner7's post on FCF you will see that on the basis of his assumptions FCF in 2020 will not reach the
close to $500M needed to bring net debt below $1B. My views informed by his posts are very similar to his. Unless the POO
gets well above $65 it will be difficult for the net debt goal of less than $1B to be achieved. But it should remain a goal.
You are getting fined a lot again...gkb47 is doing a superb job keeping track of the fines.
GLA
Oz shouldn't be allowed to set the hedging price on 2020 production. Last year they set it very low and passed the loss to us for no cost. It's bad business . This year Enquest should insist they follow the Enquest hedging strategy . If they don't, it's time to look at repaying it in full over the next 12 months.
I'm ok with looking at hedging opportunities in q1 2020. I think the premium on Brent imo2020 probably is nil at the moment, but there is very strong demand for the Kraken product. If SAUDI want the IPO to gain 20% over the next few months, then Brent will follow. I'd sit on my hands and wait for $70 in 2020 so am quite content with being unhedged going into early 2020.
I really shouldn't be here, I should be on a luxury holiday,..... and I really would be if the share price was near Terps.
Hitman1a: I was going to post more on my hedging analysis for H2/19, but there seems to be little interest among posters
apart from you, so I only add that in the end only 5MMbbls were not hedged in H2. I hope ENQ hedges the Oz loan production for H1/20 right away if Oz allows it to go ahead. Guaranteeing a floor price of $60 for the Oz loan linked production is a priority. ENQ should also buy a put at $62/bbl for Q1/20 for the 25% Magnus production right away. The 6 to 12 month section of the term structure of the POO is not going to rise above $70 in the next few months, so ENQ needs to engage in opportunistic downside protection hedges.
Pelle: W/out guidance from ENQ on Kraken there is little I can say at the moment on 2020 production. On revenue, ENQ has no hedges for 2020, so revenue will much depend on spot POO. My view on POO is the same as E121. The moment 12 months ahead POO goes above $70 shale producers first hedge 12 month forward production at that price and next call the rig operators!
I am counting on CAPEX being $150M + the shortfall from the 2019 CAPEX budget of $275M. Decommissioning expenses will increase to $25/30M.
Here is something for you: there are 8 recommendations on ENQ as follows: Outperform 1, Hold 4, Underperform 2, Sell 1.
Oz loan: Londoner7, as promised some time ago:
Net bopd Revenue
Jul 19500 40.1388
Aug 25000 47.6625
Sept 28200 57.08526
Oct 30315 61.5546075
Nov 33840 65.4804
Dec 31725 64.4176125
Total 5163940 $336.33918
Revenue of 15%WI: $71.56M
OPEX ($10/bbl) -10.99
Oz loan interest (8.8%) -7.26
Oil transportation cost ($4 bbl) -4.39
Lease (FPSO) ($90M per year) -9.57
Kraken FPSO leasing interest -5.32
FCF $34.03M
So, Oz loan balance on 31/12 ci. $135M
Assumptions: $0M H2 Capex, Cash sweep on 31/12. If last cash sweep of 2019 was on 01/10, then Oz loan balance will be close to $150M.
gkb47: I understood Londoner7's point. And I like both apples and oranges. CC: Have you looked at Drax. A few months I got back into it. I has a small holding back a few years ago when they had a CC project.
ENQ's LT strategy: Malaysia expansion is excellent idea. I posted about it before the announcement. Hope they can continue to add to their Malaysia operation. No more old platforms in the North Sea. High OPEX, which means small margins, and lots of headaches. Not worth it!
SP: Baffling. At the moment FCF > $1M per day.
Projects not mentioned in the CMD: Eagle and Dons.
SVT: Can ENQ convince BP to use SVT in the foreseeable future? Hope so. Can SVT offload to VLCCs?
GLA