The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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"Boonco, for it to be a growth driver, as you say, it has to be positive. You can't have a growth driver that is either negative or positive."
Yes I know michael, that it needs to be positive for it to be realised is a given and stating the obvious. However, If you re-read what I wrote you'll note I did cover myself on that front as I did say "...if it is positive it could/should push the company and SP onwards."
It is common and I don't see any reason why it isn't appropriate, it's simply used as a label under which fall factors that can lead to a rise in sp and the growth of a company. I'm sure DP and AS are optimistic, they wouldn't have invested decent skin in the game in the last placing if they weren't optimistic. The fact is though you don't have to try and link use of the word catalyst to confidence, you are choosing to do so. I personally think that's a great example of confirmation bias but that's just me.
Boonco, for it to be a growth driver, as you say, it has to be positive. You can't have a growth driver that is either negative or positive.
If indeed it is a word commonly used in the pharma world- can't see how it is an appropriate use when you don't have some data in hand - then clearly we can't draw conclusions on DP's optimism.
For what it's worth, as far as I'm concerned using the word "catalysts" has nothing to do with confidence in outcome. It's not like it's an uncommon word in the world of biopharma/biotech. My take is it simply refers to something that is a growth driver (e.g. trial data) and that if it is positive it could/should push the company and SP onwards.
I'm long on 4D because I'm positive and hopeful, there are no guarantees though. If an investment was obvious and guaranteed to one person then it would be obvious and guaranteed to others and there's a high chance that that would already be baked into the SP making it a less attractive prospect, which clearly it isn't.
There are 2 things that are the main drivers in the SP going forward.
Sentiment in the pharma /microbiome sectors as a whole.
Results from trial data or sources of income
While the former is low the trial data would need to be pretty conclusive. We could have great readouts over the next 12 months but while sentiment is down they may not be so beneficial for the SP as they are not pivotal trials.
The bulk of my investment here is set on a 5 year time frame. I think the company is worth a lot of money. I am not expecting it to happen overnight as so many here are.
By the way, it is the sort of catalyst I was hoping for to encourage sustained SP rises in August.
"The initial $12.5 million tranche ... extends our cash runway into Q4 2022, with multiple clinical catalysts throughout 2021 and 2022."
Using the word "catalysts" instead of say endpoints or milestones should be indicative of strong confidence in the outcome of the results. Hopefully, I'm not reading too much into it. Still, it's an interesting choice of a word.
Also rest assured that Oxford Finance would have done their due diligence. Therefore, agreeing to lend (as opposed to invest) $12.5m (in the first phase) to a non-revenue generating company may not seem as risky to them! In other words they must have their reasons.