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I think the current impasse is basically due to Trump sulking. The prerogative of the super rich not needing to be mature I guess.
His niece's book does describe him as a sociopath with no empathy for others.... go figure.
That aside, he tried to claim authority to tell the governors what to do several weeks ago. They said that was against the constitution (correctly) so he has basically abandoned them, washing his hands to spend his time tweeting and watching TV no doubt.
So no real federal support in the sense of leadership with a decisive plan.
If/when that changes, we may see the republican governors who are still holding out take a tumble and put a coherent message out between themselves. My guess being CV19 response unlikely to need help from any statues...
A coherent plan, opening with strict mask mandate. I see that as the way forward. Just waiting for the clear messaging to start. DeSantis may be key to this. He needs to realise he'll loose the next election if he doesn't grow a pair. If not then we need to wait on the success of Arizona and Texas numbers improving in about 2 weeks time. Then the contrast will make DeSantis squeak and squeal and realise which side the grass is actually greener on.
I agree with you racandfz, At the moment the market is concerned and I am actually a little concerned about the stories i'm reading about Covid from the US it feels like the Federal government has given up trying and are leaving it entirely up to the States to sort themselves out. If that's true or not it's the impression I get because of a lack of strong leadership on the issue. If they can turn things around over the next few months then things will be good.
From an unrealisable academic perspective yes.
If purchased now, then actually they wouldn't buy Regal at all. When you need liquidity don't spend. The best you can do is broker a deal in anticipation of a recovery, but the shareholders would be a barrier once it would start to recover, so you'd need to offer something well over the depressed value.
So, assuming all survives and life is peachy once more, Regal should re-value back up again to somewhere in the region of before-is.
indepth - but assuming they re-open on the 31st and are all generating revenue again then the assets go back to being worth what they were before...then this unrealized loss disappears.
But that's because of covid, nothing else has really changed in terms of the fundamentals of regal. I doubt you could buy a cinema chain in these times unless they feared going bust as otherwise why would they accept a takeoever at such a low price, so surely it's just academic?
Not sure it's really especially unforutunate timing, as I believe cinema will come back to what it was post-covid therefore the assets of regal would increase back in line with this, though with slightly higher debt due to being shut (but arguably furlough and not paying full or any rents will have blunted this increase in debt).
jayquethedog Lol We can agree to disagree on other things but that's what sometimes debating is all about, even if it gets heated from time to time. I feel like we have similar views on Cineworlds potential as well.
My Father-in-law used to work for Kier too so I heard some stories, was tempted by them when their share price crashed last year but when I did some reading the risk wasn't to my liking.
Kier is a completely different industry with completely different leadership. The leadership of Kier have had to be shaken up in recent times due to some serious missteps, i'm not an expert in that stock but I remember reading something about financial irregularities, whatever happend this breaks trust with the shareholder and the narrative of their business. Cineworld's leadership has been nothing but solid in my opinion, the debt is serviceable and when Cinemas reopen we will be in a very good place.
Indepth KIE's sp is 75.10p and before covid was 117.6p...
Cineworld is at 57.96 pre-covid was 177-190p
Averaging down is great.
Ultimately, the only point in averaging down is first to mitigate the risk (either by return of capital or accumulating shares) and not increase it; second to increase your margin on any future profit.
Simply buying new stock to hold onto is not the only way to do it. Just increases your exposure.
Sell and buy back is more typical, sometimes coupled with short term buy on a dip and sell on a rise.
Each has their own risk. Everyone has seen how unpredictable this SP is, counter-intuitively so at times.
The SP is for sure an opportunity but still hovering.
I think the market is waiting to see how events pan out.
Long term you should be fine (all things being equal)
Let me reverse the question, if I asked you, if I should average down at this price what would you say?
fwiw, my feeling is a bit of patience and you well get a better buy in price.
Though if it does rise, you are back nearer your buy in price. So a bit of patience is not going to do you any harm either way.
I logged on this morning and it was just a sea of green filtered posts... No Trump posts for me.
May I calmly advise that touting Trump and his 'facts' is not credible.
As for this BB, the only concern about the virus is if the market thinks it is a concern.
Yes it does. It's the reason the SP dropped in the first place.
The US tried reopening in a hurry. Florida, Texas, Arizona, California have shown the wisdom of that. The SP has spoken bluntly.
Now it's just about how the US will handle CV19 (or not) moving forward.
It's not simply about cinemas opening but staying open.
An eventual surge will need to be sustained to make serious money.
The fear from cases surging is keeping this below the 65-75p range. Hopefully, once things open up we start to see a change in confidence from both investors and cinema-goers.
Can't see it going much lower now (Maybe low 50s high 40s, a good chance to increase my holding?).
If the US senate agrees additional stimulus later this month like some expect and infection rates start going down it might inject some adrenaline into the market like we've seen before. That will create a bit of a FOMO and greed will set in for some easy money. That I imagine will see some fast climbs for Cine, if you then couple that with reopening on time and blockbusters it will be that which keeps us up there, stimulus is just like a sugar high, without the doors open and the money coming in it would just end up falling again.
Get through the 60s first
I personally would say yes, this was over a £1 a month ago, it only went down because of the USA cases in states that hadn't been hit yet. But as you can see here the cases started going up significantly 18 days ago, but still no change in the deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/. At some point this will start to show in the markets, and covid stocks will bounce again imo. Hard to time exactly when that is though. But in the end ofcourse it is up to you. Also check out Swedens cases and deaths and how they have dropped and remember they never even locked down - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
It's hard to know tbh mate. I have average down to about 70p but I think I will leave it there for now.
Averaging around 75p at the moment but I'm wondering if it'll be worth bringing my average price down and adding a few thousand more shares?
I'm curious as to whether this will be back at £1 before Christmas as I hope to sell in the spring once things (Should) finally be reaching the light end of the tunnel.
Thoughts?