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Blue Buxton's observations confirmed.
5th Day on the trot of a fall in the infection rate. In actual fact the trend reversal started to the day after Freedom day, on the 18th July.
*54674 Infections on the 17th July
*Now down to 29173 reported tonight.
*46% fall in a week.
So we all sat here and watched the ultra cautionery Sage scientist headlines and interviews stating absolutely the wrong time to unlock. The Downing Street briefings of a doubling in Covid numbers every 9 to 10 days (when numbers were 50k+) and urging caution, backed by modelling data, and the PM failing to rule out the potential for further restrictions. 3rd Wave and apparently being about mid cycle.
Result a hammering to share prices in leisure, hospitality, retail and airline stocks over the next few weeks.
Reality as a result of the latest data - looking a whole lot different tonight.
It would be nice if the powers that be took it back to the 87.4p (and higher) where the share price was prior to infection rates rising and "Project Fear", as I call it, kicking in.
Probably the cue for another 1/4 plus "equivalent" of the issued share capital of Cineworld to be traded over the next couple of weeks.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
PS - if you know anybody that qualifies and has not had the vaccine yet can you persuade them to get on and get both doses.
I won't thank Boris Johnson and Co for the damage done to most leisure, retail and airline stocks (and other sectors as well) over the last few weeks in trying to get their message across. It either worked or Joe Public maintained high levels of already existing discipline.
I might though wish to thank those Behavioural scientists advising them for the opportunity that any scaremongering approach may have presented on some share prices.
As the data stands tonight the prospect of further restrictions and lockdowns, which the PM failed to rule out at the time of the Freedom Day briefings is now looking remote, and the modelling has got it wrong. AGAIN !!
Onwards to The Suicide Squad, Jungle Cruise and Spirit Untamed (for the kids) next weekend and I intend to part of 1 if not 2 of those opening weekends Box Office.
As the data stands at the moment it looks like we can wave goodbye to any supposed 3rd wave and it has to be said what has probably largely accounted for the last few weeks falls after Boris Johnson scaremongering Freedom Day news conference.
Another noticeable further reduction in the Daily infection rates today. In about a week to 10 days time these reductions should filter through into the hospitalisation and death rates.
That's them down from 54674 only 1 week ago on the 17th July and now down to only 31759 on the 24th July.
Looks like the vast majority of the public are still taking it cautiously and are not "ripping the pants" out Freedom Day (Professor Jonathan Van Tam).
Natural firebreak of school children now on school holidays should also help.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9821277/Britains-daily-Covid-cases-fall-fourth-day-row-41-drop-week.html
Y'day I read article on Bloomberg where they compared the infections in UK vs Indonesia. Both countries had 50k cases but daily deaths in UK was in lower double digits whereas Indonesia is having 1000 daily deaths!
The stark difference is because of vaccines and they are clearly working. Markets got it wrong on Freedom day and damage has been done though bouncing up since then. We still will see virus scaremongering....
I'll give the press their dues this time around. They do seem to have picked up in the declines in infection rate. Mr Pym on the BBC news last night seemed to have picked up on it and so have the Mail and other tabloids.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9818821/Britains-daily-Covid-cases-fall-36-389-positive-tests.html
The three statistics that have stayed with us throughout this pandemic and imho has been the most reliable of them all is the Infection rate, hospitalisation rate and death rate? Slight question mark on the latter due to some death certs recording a death as Covid related if it is present rather than the primary cause. Skews the figures as the real Covid death rate might be less, far lesser even.
No reason to change any of those three published numbers. All much better than any "test positivity" which I suspect will be difficult to capture the data on and I can also remember well when "Excess deaths" was touted as the better statistic than the death rate. It simply never materialised and probably for the same reason.
Two consequences.
1. Falling infection rates leads to Joe Public being more inclined to go out and enjoy themselves.
2. Diminishing risk of the reimposition of any restrictions and lockdowns, which Boris Johnson Project Fear'd at Freedom day Briefings by failing to rule things out.
Things looking a bit more rosy at this time and both consequences should be good for certain sectors of the market, for example leisure, hospitality and air travel.
Weekends are there to enjoy. Mines starting now.
Correct. Remove all covid app’s off our phones and eliminate the pingdemic, stop testing and eliminate the pandemic in 3 months when everyone over 18 will have been offered 2 jabs. If they refuse them that’s their choice not the countries.
Afternoon AimingHigh2021. So you to have cottoned on to the fact that it is generally only bad news that gets reported on or creates sensationalist headlines !! Yes you do get the odd good news story normally at the end but it's the exception rather than the rule.
In the last week the UK infection rate has not exponentially risen as the scaremongerers suggested on the run up to Freedom Day and the Downing Street Briefings. (with a Doubling every 9 to 10 days)
What has actually happened over the course of the last week is that strangely the infection rate has actually fallen.
*54,674 infections on the 17th July to
*36,389 infections that have been reported today 23rd July.
It would be good to know how many of those are actually unvaccinated.
Anyways, it's the weekend and the weather has cooled down a bit and that should hopefully tempt some families out to the cinema for the weekend. Might even treat myself to a second screening of either F9 or Black Widow, maybe on the super screen this time and looking at a trip to see Space Jam early next week.
It's also good that we have elected to keep a 1 seat buffer zone either side of each booking.
Enjoy the movies and enjoy the popcorn, or whatever else tickles your fancy.
Was discussed on news last night why it is more complex than simply infection rates.
Test positivity can be deemed more of an indicator, but still not full picture.
Thought people partly due to "pingdemic" and it's consequences for many may not now be coming forward for testing and therefore skewing numbers.
Let's hope we are on right path though, time will tell. (Fingers crossed).
What would they put on the news if they couldn’t scaremonger with all the data. Remove all covid related apps off your phone to stop the pingdemic and stop getting tested to stop the media publishing scaremongering numbers every night on the news.
It's hard to argue otherwise with the Infection rate numbers going down, instead of up.
Question is are we now looking at an "unvaccinated pandemic" or not? That is the question.
I pointed this out just a week or so back that the infection rate numbers had declined for two days in succession against what was meant to be the reason for a market correction (rising Covid rates). Some said weekend, but in any case it was the first signs of a trend reversal. Further declines thereafter.
Today another further decline in Infection rates to just over 36K and a further fall in death rates. *Remember it is todays infection rates that are tomorrows hospitalisations and death rates (About + 7 to 10 days roughly)
Project Fear seems to have been working with the over 100K scaremongering numbers and now we are blessed with that added bonus of a fire break upon us with school holidays breaking that vector of transmission cycle.
Freedom Day at this rate could end up just like all the last unlocks with things having been grossly exaggerated and the opposite prevailing here in Blighty.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/