Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I not care for these bearish predictions.
Be straight, at what market cap is BT cheap, and how far can if fall.
So could BT be valued at half its current MCAP?
What is the absolute low here?
The chartist velo would have you believe there is no end to the bearishness, so Velo where is the bottom on valuation basis? not chart.
"BT’s share pride rose on the potential of new tv revenues... it’s what’s needed, new revenue channels to replace old ones"
The media space is too crowded now, you've got Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney, Sky and others, so Telecoms companies are crowded out of that space apart from partnerships maybe. The next big thing will be around IOT, AI and the associated big data opportunities, which will also benefit telecom companies. 5G will also open up a truly bundled environment, where customers will move seamlessly from their home to a mobile environment, like kids watching a film in the back of the car and transferring to the home TV as soon as the family walk through the door. The next big thing will be a fully connected environment where your home, your car, adverts you see at bus stops, etc, etc are targeted at you specifically.
I'm not sure we'll be able to opt out of this dystopian reality where people are identified, tracked and monitored wherever they are on the planet, but the marketing opportunities will be stratospheric. No doubt there will be lots of complaints around privacy and rights and the law will have to develop as the tech does. Telecoms will take a good share of the profits from this fully connected future.
BT Vision was launched in late 2006 price then around £3. After 3 years of TV it had dropped to around 70p two years later it was £5 then down to what we have today. The price has moved with market conditions, TV did not cause a sudden rise in the price after its launch in fact it could be said that it suppressed the price due to the expense of sports rights. It has now become something that people expect with there BB deal so as a revenue stream it is limited but needs to be included in the package like most other providers. Let’s face it you can buy a set top box for less than £100 and there are plenty of ways to stream pay to view for free. Perhaps dropping the sport could actually increase profit in the long term with no big payouts for the rights. The counter argument drop a service and make more money...
Fleccy - well that would be full circle to what I was trying to describe earlier in the week. BT’s share pride rose on the potential of new tv revenues... it’s what’s needed, new revenue channels to replace old ones
At some point, BT will start to climb from these lows. I have no idea what the catalyst will be, maybe a takeover rumour will be leaked, or one of the big players like Goldman will start hyping up the company, or both. I'm betting on a similar scenario to the 2009 -2015 price action, just don't know when it will turn. April 2009 BT was around 80p, by Dec 2015 it was just under £5. Time will tell if history repeats. As i said previously, I might sell my most recent purchases next year, but that will depend on price and I wont hesitate to hold if I consider the price to be too low, or momentum is heading upwards.
" Velo, I would have thought that with BT closing up, all be it very slightly that it would be a bullish sign taking in to account that the FTSE100 closing down 95 points? "
I agree NigeCo, but am lacking full confidence in saying so, because of the intraday travails.
Nonethless, I concur and do say more likely to be bullish than not.
"Don't like the shape of the candlesticks after that day, but nonetheless the day closed on the pivot point itself suggesting, the SP is now uncertain; trend wise.
The upside is that it did not close below the 108 pivot point, the downside is that it took all day near the supports rather than spend the majority of the day above the pivot point up in the resistances areas. Had it done so and still closed back at 108, I would be filled with more confidence in saying it's still all good to go on Monday."
Velo, I would have thought that with BT closing up, all be it very slightly that it would be a bullish sign taking in to account that the FTSE100 closing down 95 points?
grantsnapps @
"But under no circumstances whatsoever, must it close at even a tiny fraction below 108 on Friday"
" Velo, it closed at 108.05, what can we expect Monday? "
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I was disappointed by how long (the majority of the trading day) that it floated below the pivot point and the 1st support of the day for so long. Felt sure it wasn't going to make it back home out of the dark woods by close - but it did in the end - only just!
Don't like the shape of the candlesticks after that day, but nonetheless the day closed on the pivot point itself suggesting, the SP is now uncertain; trend wise.
The upside is that it did not close below the 108 pivot point, the downside is that it took all day near the supports rather than spend the majority of the day above the pivot point up in the resistances areas. Had it done so and still closed back at 108, I would be filled with more confidence in saying it's still all good to go on Monday.
So in summary, it's done enough IMO not to favour the bears (nor the bulls) so it starts off Monday with a decent chance of not giving in to the bears, but I say that with a face devoid of any previous overt confidence.
I predict that it may go up, or down on Monday and will likely finish above, below . or at 108.05.
"But under no circumstances whatsoever, must it close at even a tiny fraction below 108 on Friday"
Velo, it closed at 108.05, what can we expect Monday?
" What do the numbers say now Velo ? Does it still need to stay above 107 ?"
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Hi Bommer - very much so, and then some.
I did prepare some price points late last night after discovering the Q2 forecasts had come out. Looking at those this evening after the price closed - and I had a right shock! Looked terrible for Friday but hadn't pumped in this morning's price which was a big drop down to open at 107.95 which actually softened everything, making things look a lot less rough.
These are what I have for tonight which will adjust once Friday's initial opening price is to hand - but ahead of that, the price closed on Thursday down at the first intraday support of the day, but on the upside that support repelled the price preventing it from falling further.
So I'd say, looking 'a bit' bearish for Friday, but depending on Friday morning's opening price I might alter that opinion, once it's pumped in to the spreadsheet.
Best option strategy for Friday = Defence:
Friday - okay (perhaps) to close no lower, as it is tonight at 108; but preferably 109 for a minimum confirmed peace of mind.
But under no circumstances whatsoever, must it close at even a tiny fraction below 108 on Friday.
All IMO only.
PS. Notice on the free sites in the US for tonight, they've got closing on 108 as an absolute disaster, with their figures much tougher than mine for tomorrow.
Tomorrow's opening will add clarity and clear the air somewhat.
What do the numbers say now Velo ? Does it still need to stay above 107 ?