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Great post Druid.
I’m in your corner and agree with the points you have made.
I have offloaded a 3rd of my shares now and will wait to see what happens.
I will not be voting and certainly not be adding through the placing.
The BOD have not changed only been shuffled and S.Potter, on the QT, will still be calling the shots.
I hope that over 50% refuse to take up their placing as it will be interesting to see if the institutional investors pick up the remaining, available shares.
I just hope that the newbies listen to the LTH and don’t jump into investing here with both feet.
Wait until consolidation and get the shares around 3p.
I have never known shares to consolidate without falling slightly in the first week or two.
P.O.C
Regardless of the mud type, you still will have to deal with pore pressures that exeed the frac gradient as you approach the Diapir in depth...and if that goes well, then you have to believe quality reservoir is there(??)...AND THEN..remember, (if you plot the frac gradient and the PP together), in an over-pressured environment, you do not have much space to develop a Hydrocarbon column, because the HC cannot be contained by the sealing pressure....
But I digress...
Realistically, and generally:
1.)CERP LTH are justifiably and properly ****ED!
2.) BPC LTH are happy for another roll of the dice, but also justifiably ****ED even though this always a likely outcome at P1.
3.) The BOD, as is usual in these sorts of companies, are happy about their Lifestyles, (list the predecessors), then LK with HIS golden parachute, SP with HIS his gilded life-boat, and the new CEO (so they say) with HIS Goudron cash, tax free and courtesy of the long-suffering Trinidadian public.
4.) Of course, for Newbies coming in when this SP bottom's out, This is a Casino again, and this is where the BOD wish to find their 'oil' again!.... Newbies are in a modest binary play again statistically, with upside potential as news is released/massaged... A mini BPC (v.1) lookalike of sorts.
The reason this BB is toxic, is that the last generation of the abused, will not sit quietly and watch the new intake being educated in the gospel by the latest GANG RAMP. (yes, I chose those words specifically, but they cannot be deemed offensive, and are certainly appropriate!!)
The more things change...Anyone here remember Range Resources, RRL?
This ball has been bounced so many times it has become a blur..,look and learn.
"These further five to nine wells are projected to deliver average daily production of up to 1,000 - 1,500 bopd, which it is estimated would provide US$8 million - $12 million of annual cashflows going forward (based on a US$60 / bbl oil price)"
so BPC estimate 1000 bopd may give them US$8 million cahsflow
BPC currently producing 500 bopd
Saffron 2 may yield upto 300 bopd
so with one drill, they are approaching $7m cashflow p.a
But more important than that is the leverage
Reserve based lending they could have drawn down on but didnt was around $1.1 million based on P2 reserves of 1.1 m barrels.
Saffron 2 yields 11m barrels estimated - so the RBL facility rises accordingly towards $10m funds
enough for a lot of drilling , after that its scaling - revenue buys more wells.
"Thereafter, field development drilling would continue through 2022 and 2023. The current estimated overall field development would comprise up to 30 wells in total, with a peak production projection of approximately 4,000 bopd. The current full Saffron field development scenario would generate annual incremental cash flows for the Company in excess of US$25 million."
Ramp or reality? well its what they have said is the plan - at least they have one that ha some basis and working of the same pad as the Saffron discovery - i.e a commercial WPS.
Time to get behind the plan, towards a chance of getting your money back.
The mistakes at Saffron 1 and the lower cruise was down to the excessive mud weight needed to counteract the high pressure. The sand became clogged and the formation damaged, however 40 degree API oil still flowed to surface. This time they are using non water based drill mud that will not damage the formation and will not allow the clay to swell, therefore improving downhole conditions and preserve the reservoir sands in the Lower Cruz. These reservoir sands are over 300ft thick, so I expect if they manage to preserve the formation the oil will flow at a decent rate.
I suspect there will be lots of videos on site of drilling operations culminating in flowing oil at the well head.
Only6greens, people won't want to see this tweet they are convinced this is "going bust" and people will "never ever make money"