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Tb, So the deal is going to happen is it? Is that why the SP is falling because by your statement the tail will be waging the dog.
Bhoys, post a comment with a few material facts that can be critiqued and people might start to take you seriously. Whinging in how people just post rubbish with any facts is just wearing your poor fingers out. You’re an empty vessel who sounds desperate for a deal to go through to protect something.
Are you trying to protect a CERP position that will disintegrate if this deal doesn’t go through? Leo Koots said he could have locked in a price around 2p for CERP but would rather this deal instead. Circa 2p per share is what CERP will possibly get if this merger falls through, are people worried by that?
In response to the ‘historic’ 1 - 1.5p post.
Historically BPC haven’t:
Had a rig contract.
Had a credible plan to fund drilling.
Had Environmental Authorisation.
Had an assembled Drilling Team.
Had Mutual Fund and Family Office investors.
Had drill bits, casing and well heads purchased.
The historical 1 to 1.5p assessment has no basis going forward and is only relevant when looking at a historic sp on a chart. Such a comment shows ignorance - it’s a ‘chartists’ comment.
Why don’t you give up the ghost Jim. Look the merger is going to happen , and why, because it they way forward for us as a company and a solid basis on which we can build. We are going to go from BPC wannabes to BPC oil producers. How nice and what a revelation CERP and L.Koot are. You keep going on and on about the same old tosh anyone who cannot see through you Jim are so naive. Look embrace the future and join the party.
Jim, you have pinpointed my challenge with the deal.
Without going in to the rights or wrongs of a deal for CERP my issue is with the timing of the deal and the relative SP movement expected over time.
CERP were trundling along, I did not see enough to fundamentally change the SP for them. There is an argument that the second well would open the taps, what this translates to in SP terms? 2x? 3x? I don't know.
With the path BPC was on what would the SP trajectory have been on the run in to drill 4x? 5x?
it is the relative movement gap that has left me with doubts as to the timing of the deal.
Either SP and the board know something we do not (and might not like) in the future of BPC as a stand alone. Or they see something in the CERP acquisition that supports BPC going forward that I do not see. Or this deal is not as great as they want us to believe.
I am reluctantly backing the deal with reservations. I do so knowing that the deal is now my high risk play rather than BPC as a stand alone being my high risk play.
If Bonum was still posting he would advocate a well discussed Mongolian outfit worth adding to the portfolio if you want a potential multi-bagger.
4-5p when we are what 6 months away drilling? No chance mate. Ironically the merger is what has actually kept this share price floating above 2p. Historically BPC is and always has been a penny share dloating between 1 - 1.50. As we aproach nearer to the drill date and finances and leaglity are all in place and we have no unexpected hurdles we will see a surge in share price as the momentum starts to build. But that wont be until the late autum at the earliest.
Anyone new to this forum ask yourself this, why would someone spend an enormous amount of time promoting this bad merger deal? Something is obviously not right when it appears to be forced upon you. If you are a BPC holder and are in any doubts as to whether this merger is a good or bad thing do your own research and try and find the good in the deal. Ask yourself:
- When you invested in BPC did you do it to be a part of a potential multi billion barrel prospect, or, were you interested in a 560 barrels of oil a day nickel and dime outfit?
- Did I invest in something that if it struck oil it would be a multibag on my investment or was I wanting to be in something that organically grew it's capacity by 76 bopd in one year!
In your portfolio of investments was BPC the high risk one which you accepted, would buying CERP change your portfolio strategy to something you did not intend?
- CERP would appear to only make money when oil is comfortably above $40/b so CERP isn't going to make anything meaningful with their low rates unless oil is well above $55/b, when do you think that will be post COVID?
- Do you feel CERP could have been 'merged' for cheaper as BPC's share price increased as progress was made on P#1 e.g. confirmation of license, updated EA, Stena rig named, etc...
- All roads to a successful merged company would still appear to be aligned to success at P#1.
- How does diluting my holding by at least an additional 880m shares, plus any additional Director options, etc. help with my initial risk/reward investment decision and given it still all seems to revolve around P#1, why do this deal now?
I have been posting about BPC for years and in general I think they have huge potential whilst being high risk. I think they were well on the path this time to realising that potential - look back at all my posts.
Be wary of those with new accounts from turn of this year who only post good and great things and are afraid of saying where the company may be going wrong. No company is perfect and it is not healthy to pretend so.
If this merger is voted down I predict this sp will return to the 4p to 5p levels and move on to levels more aligned to a risk reward ratio of a potential 2 billion barrel find.
JtK
Now that’s a happy post on this beautiful Wednesday morning Starchild.
Harry, you are one of the most honest and respected persons i have ever had the pleasure to communicate with. Despite what you admitted to doing with 'smoke and mirrors.' I refer to your posts from June 12-14. Karma. Have a great day.
[ Ps...to slightly misquote a famous Lionel Richie lyric......'And I mean this from the heart of my bottom']
Starchild
DXB1: I fully respect your comment. And the fact you have not appeared on this BB 4 times a day sla+ging off the company and the merger. If you listen/watch the presentation, in my opinion it answers the 'how' without spelling out the detail. It's a bit like someone old fashioned asking me for permission to marry one of my daughters. We would discuss practical matters such as where they will live. If my future son in law stated they will get a mortgage to buy a flat, I would not ask for copies of his pay-slips and letters from mortgage companies that have sent him loan approval. I would trust him. Even more so if the lad has great potential because he just graduated with a PhD and just got a job as a software engineer at Microsoft.
Anyway, that's my take on it
Starchild
xxx
Star, respect your research. I’m certainly not happy with the share price. But as a Lth who has stuck with this company for over 8+ years I think it perfectly reasonable to ask my company for more information about the future direction and strategy of a merged company given that it is such a radical change of course. A radical change so far away from what I have supported and financed. Some will say trust the Board. I have. For years. When things looked extremely bleak. When the company went into long term communication blackout. That improved over the past year with what looked like a new spirit of openness. And now? Back to nothing aside from a left field RNS that poses more questions than answers. It might be a good deal. But explain why/how is all I’m asking. I think I, and others, deserve that. But I’m resigned to not getting it so I’m voting ‘no’. This is not deramping. It is extreme frustration. Seem to recall another In/out vote a couple of years back where it was ‘trust us we know best’. And look how that went! Not sure a BPC ‘protest’ vote will have the same outcome. But why not eliminate risk and communicate strategy? Not sure I deserve to be called a deramper or, indeed,a ramper. I am simply frustrated at being treated as essentially a cash cow to finance ..... what?
There is a small group of persons on this forum who consistently speak negatively about the merger, the BoD, and at times the company. They appear to be delighted when the SP twitches downwards. Some have even openly questioned the integrity and honesty of the BPC BoD. They have done so………..
1. Despite both BoDs (BPC and CERP) unanimously voting for the merger.
2. Despite a recent excellent BPC presentation explaining the strategy in full which practically discloses how funding will take place without spelling it out for dimwits. Watch https://www.bpcplc.com/videos-interviews/ (26 mins top left of page)
3. Despite the opinion of ‘Malcy’ (Malcolm Graham-Wood) the oil/gas oracle considered a global expert (29m-33m)… https://total-market-solutions.com/2020/07/06/malcy-talks-oil-gas-xxi/
4. Despite a financial investment institution (J Finn), a public pension fund (Mersey) and a HNWI who all invested in BPC and undoubtedly have access to the cream of investment advisors. They do NOT appear to have concerns about massive SHARE DILUTION!!!
This SMALL anti-merger group purports to know better than the all the above and has repeatedly questioned whether BPC has funding for the billion dollar drill, with demands the BoD proves it. My opinions some based on indisputable facts are as follows:
1. Fact 1: One person in this hardcore group cannot be trusted as he has openly admitted to manipulating this BB for personal gain. How he can show his face on this forum I don’t know. Personally I would be deeply ashamed.
2. Fact 2: One person in this hardcore group was banned from this forum since 21/6 by LSE for allegedly spreading FAKE news and causing disruption by bombarding this forum with allegedly dishonest posts. This person may be the subject of court action, however I don’t know.
3. Many shareholders including myself would welcome more news, however if none is forthcoming prior to the vote deadline I am not going to throw my toys from the pram like a spoilt brat. I trust the BoD and if I didn’t I would sell up.
4. I suspect some in the hardcore group have allegedly selfish reasons for their anti-merger stance and are trying to talk the SP down because they have few or no shares.
Key takeaways:
(1) Make your own decision on the YES or NO vote, however ALWAYS do your own research or speak to an expert who has NO conflict of interest. Always assume any poster here (including me) has a selfish conflict of interest.
(2) If you have few or no shares in BPC, and bad mouthing the company on this BB for selfish gain……P+55 off.
I am a LTH shareholder in BPC since 2014 and a CERP one since a few days ago. I STRONGLY recommend you watch/listen to the links above, rather than take my advice. Please click on my name to review my previous research and opinions.
Starchild