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@Enso, Sanctions could make it difficult for companies to deal with Russia, but was watching a sky news documentary where certain commodities were excluded, trade between China and Australia, China taking metal ores but not wine amongst other things..
Unfortunately just lately this forum has descended into anarchy with people just spouting their opinions with no basis. This level of emotion is exactly why RI's tend to sell low and buy high...
Cheesy,
Explain why?
US/UK sanctions on Russia ARE US/UK sanctions NOTHING to do with BP.
BP are not just a silent partner taking their share for no input, you need to do some research into BP's long standing history in Russia.
Oh dear! Not only is Boris going to steal all our profits in a windfall tax but Putin is going to steal30% of our production.
GOM was a cakewalk compared to this.
Woe. Woe. Thrice Woe!
On the other hand, maybe it won’t happen.
Tinker
Anyone thinking Russia will seize BP's stake in Rosneft is sadly deluded.
It will NOT happen.
Not only BP’s - any company invested in Russia plus any Russian company invested in a NATO country.
I agree that the situation in Ukraine may cause issues for BP. On balance though I would think not, I had a look at 2014 Rosneft SP and the BP SP as that was when Crimea was annexed by Russia and both SP's seemed to be ok. I also looked at where Rosneft sold its products and most seems to go to Asia. Posting a few days ago I reckoned on a pull back to 360 (quicker that I thought though) and given that nothing goes up in a straight line, I reckon for me it is good value sub 360. One thing is that all this uncertainty is hitting the markets and when the uncertainty dissipates then the SP should regain it's upward trajectory.... Experience tells me to sit on the sidelines at the moment... Not long to go before results so we should all know more about BP's 2021 trading soon.
That seems like the only sure thing!
Enso the buybacks are the one thing BOD can control and taper or build to suit current conditions and spare cash.That’s quite a bit of room to change if needed.
Think the biggest worry would be if BP share in Rosneft was taken away, but not sure that would happen .
No one can say it’s boring being a BP share holder always something to worry about
I've been really racking my brain over this one and I'm still a little bit stumped, if I'm honest.
Rosneft supplies around 1/3 of BPs production and accounts for around 12% of profits (nearly $1b a quarter). So if we assume that we would lose access to that in the short term (hypothetically because none of us really know how that would turn out), how would BP respond?
Perhaps the buybacks would need to cease in order to protect the dividend, further disposals would also likely cease with them looking to up production where possible from remaining assets, which would then in turn be written back up I assume? Also the price of O&G would likely increase making the remaining assets more profitable (so long as demand remains, and I think that largely it would).
I also think it's unlikely (but not impossible), that Russia would seize BPs share of Rosneft as that would harm future collaborative relationships.
The renewables pipeline is still on target (largely in the US and Europe), and the customers & products section would remain profitable.
So I'm leaning more towards it not being the total disaster for BP that some might lead you to believe. I've remained invested as if Russia does invade and sanctions are applied that do affect BP then I think they will be short lived and BP could position itself to remain profitable.
Just some thoughts of mine, think if them what you will. I'm certainly no expert when it comes to war and its effects on the world.
Good job we had that 80p/25% price bump over the last 2 weeks, otherwise we'd be looking at sub 300 again right now.
However, oil prices are still sky high which will bode well for Q1 results in May, Omicron worries should have passed by then, and fundamentals are the same and still strong.
Clearly the big concern right now is Russia. But again, even if things kick off there, it will be all over in a few months more than likely.
Stay strong and reap the rewards.