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It is interesting this continued reference to a single seller without recourse to any evidence or comment on the Bloomberg share tracker.
The effect of your actions here Kat if we were to use an analogy is akin to someone selling their house and saying to any potential buyer I've got this average asset I've invested - I've paid well over the odds for it but I want to sell it on now - just so you know, the wires upstairs are completely shot, No 5 two doors down is a drug den, we've had the Volvo broken into 3 months in a row and Disco Dave next door holds a weekly rave every weekend.
I only say this as I'm hoping to get the best return on my investment - oh just so you know, Pedo Pete broke his right leg and left ankle last week so your kids will be safe for at least 4 months - great new isn't it. Please put in your highest offer!!!
My layman's view on this is:
1. Tobin is a millionaire - correct. However, Robin is a millionaire for one reason - buying shares at an undervalue and making huge profits. He is probably the least likely to throw good money after bad out of anyone - fact! No only does he risk his own capital, but also his own pride and reputation, afterall - why would he risk his reputation just as he has millions to pump into a "dud" company? He is a seasoned pro (way more knowledgeable in terms of trading in general and for this specific share too).
2. Kat, you stated previously...."If there's even the sniff of a comment about 'headwinds ahead' the doommongers will be out and panic selling. hoenstly, the price could be anything from 1400 > 580."
Why are you not selling and cutting your loses at this stage if you don't believe you will ever recoup your initial investment?
3. You are correct - this is not a fan forum. However, you have suggested that PI's have more than the capability of ramping and share - i am not so sure however if I held your view and believed that to be the case - I would be posting here multiple times a day saying £20 is coming, news will soon see £30 etc to get back my investment at least - you however take the opposite approach- very curious indeed.
Putting any financially or investment savvy to one side - your actions completely undermine your statements.
As I have said, I only have a passive interest but it would appear you comments are disingenuous or unscrupulous.
Oh my lord this is just to testing. Don't know how many times I have to repeat this...bloomberg tracks 100% of holders by name and entities on a daily basis....can see it live, none of the major holders are offloading this share.
Secondly...your assumption that Tobin is happy to just 'overpay' for shares is maddening. The pure fact he is a tech investor multimillionaire makes it all the more unlikely he would put money into something willy nilly. Your assumptions about successful tech investors....utter garbage mate and I sincerely hope no one on this board listens to them. It's honestly the biggest guff you talk vs. anything else...
Tobin can put his money into VC, PE and other high growth tech businesses he believes can bag him more money. Absolute rubbish the idea he his just throwing money in here on the basis he's happy to overpay. Absolutely bloody rubbish mate.
Maybe the resident doomonger knows who's selling, as they regularly keep asking this rhetorical question. Is it their boss?
regardless, looking forward to the update and just hope it jives everyone what they want...
first, a very obvious point: he is a millionaire and has also bought shares at 450 and pretty much any number you care to mention so his belief in the share is going to be different to any retailer, especially as he alsohas gifted warrants? but i'd say that, even if he's in lock-out period, he obviously doesn't know who the seller is and i'm not sure following someone who can afford to overpay for shares is a positive?
the update will, very likely follow on from the positives of the last update. the question is going to be just how positive? will it be enough to triple the mcap, if the sp stays at this level? growing revenue and frowing profit is extremely desirable but one has to decide where the sp will go and what support it'll find. if you have faith that the sp will bounce back to £20 then I hope you're adding at this level. most recent buyers have had their fingers badly burnt by this drop and so will now wait to see exactly what the news says before adding (unless it starts a rise and does an NNN before then). But i suspect most holders have already overbought on the rampy talk of £35 and some weird cross-ownership between Aaqua, AAA, DEV and ASLR.. Just because I'm in it doesn't mean i'm not looking for answers and if discussing it on here means someone gives me some new perspective. But this isn't football where you cheer regardless of the facts as seen (and the biggest fact atm is the sp and its drop).
Maybe i'm more skittish than those convinced of major BOOMage, in which case my posts don't matter one little bit. I'd just like to understand the mechanism behind the drop.
there is simply no case to answer with Tobin buying.....literally no case.
he is the one man who really is most well qualified to understand future value here...acquisition or no acquisition. people need to relax.
hopefully the HY update is as joyous as expected.
So instead of being positive about your investment - you prefer to spend days on end being negative about it? Very confusing that you have so much energy to be negative but not positive.
Many smarter people than you have invested at higher prices - yet you always seem to shrug off the suggest that Tobin (who has the hard financial figures about the company) is smarter than you. Why is that? He has afterall ploughed in lots more at well above 1200p
what i meant is that, on the drop, the enthusiasm for buying the shares on the drop has evapourated. once it got below about 1100 most of the pi buying dried up, having gone in hard higher up (based on the 2250-3500 targets).
so what we have had is repeat selling without the counterweight of pi's buying (ii's don't seem interested... even Aaqua, presumably as they'd like the sp as low as possible if they're planning the take over?)
as for the negativity, that comes with the sp. it's hard to be positive about the sp currently. things would be different if/when it recovers but i'm not one for just hoping ans wishing. unfortunately, we're all waiting for the update BUT at this price it #s just obvious that traders will get in on positive news and will probably not wait around unless the sp takes a crazy ride back up to £20. at that point noone cares what anyone has written about it. until then, talk of 'agendas' is just confusing a bit of realisation and a bit of trepidation with negativeity. The one thing folk DON't want to do is, having bought too high, sell up and then miss out on a possible rise. And having seen the sp played so well by smarter folk than me, the only hopes are 1. amazing news and rush back up OR price crashes, buy more to average down and wait and hold for the longer term and the actual value to be realised.
but most of the folk i know ploughed waaaay too much money into this, being assured it was a buyout target imminently. now that's come and gone and folk realise that noone wants to buy at a high price when there's an option to buy lower. so if that's the likely outcome, unless there's a bidding war, i don't see the sp getting back to 2250 from AAA's offer.
I must admit (and I am only a curious bystander with this share, im not invested) but I can not understand why Kat is so "anti" his own investment.
I personally like to take a weighted view of any investment but for all I have read Kat is 90% negative with all the comments - doesn't seem to make sense.
Also, you state that the SP rise was only due to rampers but then also suggest that the drop in SP can't be manipulated by deramping (makes no sense).
Purely from the outside looking in - I think its fair to say Kat has an agenda with this share.
The trading update for the end of March was issued on the 11 April (1stApril and 1stJuly coincidently were both on a Friday) so maybe an RNS towards the end of the week or Monday as before.
I don't think anyone has a clue whats going to happen SP wise.
But here's my guess, if the SP drifts down to £8 this week and the AGM on the horizon, then FOMO may kick in and people will pile back in.
I know I will be buying some more, I'm in for the long haul.
yes, it was. BUT, when has any broker note been reached or surpassed on release? that was a target for some future date, not 24hours later! it was intruiging and just a bit... surprising and then surpassed by a nonsensical 3500 target by someone with a big following. it's what made me think, hindsight, obvisouly, that there was your ramp while the share was dumped.
hard to explain, otherwise how the sp is now at 850. that said, must be a bit of expectation to come pre update... but cash seems to have mostly already been sunk in?
No Kat, my primary reason was lack of cash. CEO/CFO on meagre salaries vs. their potential outgoings so makes complete sense they are not buying like Tobin.
Second sentence I worded wrong...of course they all understand the business and how to run it well...they have proven that. However there is simply a big difference between running a business well and being a tech visionary who really understands the value potential of a platform. Me and you don't understand that and looking at the past experience of CEO/CFO, neither do they. Tobin however who has taken businesses from day 1 to over 2bn dollar valuation...he does understand. I'm sorry but this is a funny board where you have 1 guy who really really matters in terms of what he is doing. And he knows more than anyone...he certainly has more contacts in the industry than anyone else and will have driven the F-off last year to the earlier offer because he knows it undervalues the business ridiculously. It's a free lunch what he has been doing for us.
By the way...to that article posted about acquisition signals. We are in line with quite a few of those...in addition to the fact that Tobin has suddenly stopped buying (biggest signal of all).
Sorry Kat...need to just clear up this ownership thing. Bloomberg tracks 100% of the shareholding...by names of entities and individuals. Can see it in real time. Your talking absolute mince here about a large seller...SP reflects that kind of action but I'm afraid to say its not happening. It is in real time and BBG tracks every percentage of ownership daily.
Much more in line this SP action with manipulation.
Am I not right in saying that Finncaps last target price was circa £22?
we live in hope! : )
you're actually explaining the lack of BoD buying in their own company as them not understanding their own company or its potential???? Damn, if only they knew someone they could talk to about the possibilities!
Just for fun. Some things are definitely applicable here.
i bought at 1200, thinking buyer fomo would kick it up... it hasn't, primarily because there IS a seller who has consistently sold. the sp doesn't lose 60% on algo trading 10s of shares but on repeated 1k, 2k and bigger sells, for weeks. it's an out'n'out mystery who it is and how they can hide their trades. talk about non UK investors being able to delay and defer announcements. either way, if you can't explain how the sp is now down at 850 (lower then the rejected AAA price) then you have to admit to an unidentified issue? there's been a lot of fomo on the price drop as folk imagined it was going to bounce or that Aaqua were going to buy shovels full of shares. they havent... most they've transferred Mrs Aaqua's holding to Mr Aaquas. They certainly haven't announced and sub ternner buys. As for Tobin, he's an outlier... bought at under a fiver, buys at £19... but pi's can't follow his tactics, just like we can't follow Berkshire! IF 850 is a bargain (not arguing that point, relative to 1200) then the sp should be rising? Instead there's a distinct chance of 800 being crossed tomorrow...
Tobin is a multimillionare tech investor....the rest of board if you check out backgrounds are capable but they don't look like they have a lot of spare cash.
They also don't look like they understand technology platforms and future potential...not knocking them. It's just very clear on that board who really knows what the future could look like for this business.
I am just a lowly small boat captian and not a finance guru. What keeps playing on my mind is that only Tobin buying shares and none of the other directors.
Sorry Kat you are just wrong about the price being totally pumped here. One...go and look at past transactions in this space. There are platforms growing considerably slower than BOOM and with no profits being taken out at 5x+ revenue multiples. For a company who is growing even faster with an incredibly sophisticated platform and which is now turning good profitability...these multiples will apply for a larger group who can scale this business. It genuinely is a business which is perfect for a larger platform to acquire.
Secondly, Tobin wasn't buying at 22quid + because he wanted to ride a pumped price. He is someone who all is life has invested his cash and made multiple bags. Versus you or me...he obviously see's incredibly potential here at a price considerably more than double where we are right now.
Why did you ever invest in this share...you are highly pessimistic and never respond to any of these positives when they are highlighted to you. For someone invested, it's bizzare. Also...never responded to you on this but wanted to get it straight...You also constantly go on about an unknown large seller...I have access to Bloomberg which tracks everything real time. No changes in the big owners here. Herald (one of the most sophisticated tech focused trusts out there)...still in. Candy Ventures...still in. Tobin...loading up. Aaqua...still here.
the price was pumped! you can't expect the company to say 'wow, can't believe you all bought at THAT level!'... the price was majorly pumped by 'people' who now have the choice to either get back in at half price or to just move on.
there' little doubt that the update will be positive but it's certainly not going to be baggingly positive, nor double bagging! personally, i'll be relieved if it gets back over 1200 the week of the update but you're going to have to be aware that, if the sp is rising, traders will get in and get out before most 'charmed' folk, who believed the 2250-3500 was possible, short term, are in the black. only way that's going to happen is if someone decides to buy them out but, with the market the way it is why is anyone going to pay a premium price, unless there's a bidding war. Even Aaqua are biding their time. If there's even the sniff of a comment about 'headwinds ahead' the doommongers will be out and panic selling. hoenstly, the price could be anything from 1400 > 580. without knowing what the news is going to say... only thing that's a fact is that 3500 was smoke being blown up everyone's backside.
Also btw...not trying to negate or brush off your concerns! I luckily got into this thing at 1100ish thinking it'd be impossible to drop more...and I'm hating the paper loss. Make no mistake the drop from 20 quid plus is incredibly dramatic and feel for anyone looking at that.
But also think this is one of the most brilliant opportunities out there. Was re-reading the bid rejection last year when revenues were half of what they are now (along with profitability)...and the annual report and Q1/April updates. Given the April update was mid-May and they explicitly said strong performance had kept continuing into Q2, seems pretty conclusive the H1 numbers are going to be great.
So fundamentals exceptional...thats before you start to consider Tobin's buying...which seems reasonable to think has only stopped because he has inside information. Why else would he stop? If the share was good value at 20 quid for him (and he can put his money anywhere like VC or PE funds)...then it's phenomenal value at 8.50. There really is no explanation for the stop in buying except he isn't allowed to...the news has only got better for the company.
None of us know what will happen....but when I write down my rational for this position vs. others, it's a clear winner in terms of positive probabilistic outcomes.
As I've said before...literally nothing they can do.
Half year update coming very soon (don't know exact date but should be mid July)...my guess is they are just thinking lets let the performance do all the talking. What else can they do?