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A lot of PR being applied down under I wonder what might be going on. Most unusual for the Americans to go so quiet.
Saying that, November was a big month
PaulinaRK- I get the impression you may be subtly saying that is what bushveld is currently doing? Your shipping logs appear to be showing less being sent to Baltimore. If some production is being diverted currently to electrolyte production where is that likely to be going? There is so much going on currently , cannot keep up with it- before East London plant is built where would the electrolyte be produced. Avalon - California, UET - Washington, both in the US?
Yes Paludina, it could be a huge moment for energy storage if that turns out to be true. Lithium Ion has a sweet spot around 20C at higher temperatures it’s performance drops of quickly and when it is cycled hard on a grid application it is pushed to its limits. Much harder than in an EV or a home storage application. For a $66 million installation lasting just two years that could be a major blow for a famous Lithium Ion Battery maker!
So locations in Africa where temperatures are similar to Australia are going to prove equally difficult. I do hope Eskom make are well informed decision on their BESS systems! Local supply and local support may be just the tonic.
So knuttie would it suit you if we just added a zero after the 22p. Let’s make it £2.20 by end of 2021 to be conservative. That little old Iron ore company has morphed into the fastest growing Vanadium company on the planet and they are just about to ramp up from 8400 mtV to 12,000 mtV thanks to growth and improved efficiency (sorry this is December 2021!).
It could happen!
@RichKen: I would guess that if large Lithium Battery storage plants were seen to be replacing not just one or two but hundreds of their units at one site the word would soon get out.
That might as you say put considerable demands upon VRFB roll out. I wonder if any Company has thought of diverting some of it's production from steel strengthening into compounds more aligned to electrolyte production.
I guess it might show up as a difference in a Company's declared production against known exports.
It might also be seen in any increase in Vanadium pricing as demand outstrips supply. Interesting times might be ahead.
But one must be realistic &22p is a good SP for a little old iron ore company!
These are valid reports Alfacomp!
But one thing they don't take into consideration is that if it turns out to be the case that Lithium-Ion systems actually don't perform well in large grid applications where there are fast cycles and they get used up quickly, that is 3000 cycles in 2 to 3 years and those Lithium-Ion cells need to be replaced as may turn out to be the case. In large systems, this could be very cost-prohibitive for the energy companies. They will then re-focus onto more favourable technology which could be seen as the perfect Stationery Storage Technology which would be Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries. Then the demand will grow much faster than has been anticipated. This would be great news for all the know VRFB manufacturers and put a huge demand on low-cost primary vanadium miners and electrolyte producers like Bushveld Minerals.
If rumours circulating about large well known Lithium-Ion systems turn out to be verified, then the demand will more than double much more quickly and every vanadium miner on the planet will be very busy indeed. Our slive of the market could be very much larger. When we know we have a minimum of 3.5 million tonnes of actual Vanadium in Vametco, Brits and Mokopane the value of this operation could look very strong indeed.
This will be a hugely significant proposition for our partners like Avalon, RedT and Enerox. Let alone the other large VRFB producers and system sellers around the world. The next few months and certainly the next year will unveil much in the stationary energy storage market.
The thing is certain! If any Vanadium Business was in a strong position to capitalise on this opportunity right now it is Bushveld Minerals!
Very exciting indeed!
that Bloomberg New Energy Finance reference :- https://about.bnef.com/blog/energy-storage-investments-boom-battery-costs-halve-next-decade/
Tom - BloombergNEF estimate roughly 300 GW of energy storage rolled out by 2030. Let's call that 30 GW per year. Let's be unrealistically conservative and assume only 2 hour average duration times for these batteries. That's 60 GWh per year.
Let's again be conservative and assume that VRFBs only take 20% of this (I think it will be 50% after 5 years) - that equates to 12 GWh per year for VRFBs, at 5,000 tonnes VANADIUM per GWh that works out at 60,000 tpaV.
Tom, about 40%! Over the next two to three years and over 100% over the next 4 to 5 years.
As Knuttie says - A lot!
Yes, lots.
Does anyone have any idea how much demand for vanadium will increase as more and more VFRBs are commissioned?
... and ladies
It’s amazing to realise how much vanadium the world is going to need. Great information thanks gents.
Re electrolyte
Interesting re the Dalian battery project how this will work, normally one would pre work the electrolyte in preparation for fill up but I expect the volumes required will be so significant it wouldn't be practical. However If they do want to prepare up front the timing will be important , if for example they come to market straight after the Chinese new year (sooner rather than later) along with all the other steel makers that would be some impact. I assume with a project of this size they will make it up in batches question is how big will those batches be over what time frame. all hyperthetical but non the less key to vanadium pricing next year
I see Alfa, thanks. So just to complete my point, the 8000t on v205 is what percentange of annual v205 production?
Yes Vauxhall Viva and only 56% of that number is actually Vanadium.
Yeah they quote "About 9.89 tonnes of V2O5 is used per MWh of storage."
Which in Dalians case is 8000 t. Im just thinking with world annual supply not much above 100,000 t then the additional demand is significant % in 2020 from this one project alone.
exactly right Delboys, this is a common mistake.
Stupid predictive text!!
Think he’s referring to the amount of actual elemental vanadium where is the article refers to the lady in pentoxide which is approximately 56% vanadium by weight
Not according to this article Alfa
https://www.vanadiumcorp.com/news/industry/are-lower-vanadium-prices-triggering-a-wave-of-giant-new-vrfb-developments/
VauxhhallViva, Dalian will only take 4,000 tonnes of Vanadium
I asked the other day about filling Dalian Vrfb. It'll take 8000t of V and is due mid 2020. Are projections for V price really taking mammoth projects like this into account?