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16az went from being the 'best well in Georgia" to a dud. Paul played investors like the pied piper but he did secure the companies future with funding.
If they sort out the water issues maybe this will turnaround. The market has priced this right at 4p for now.
MP
The rampers are trying to deceive new investors so they can get out
Who are you kidding here fellas
Excerpt from 25Sep rns
"From 17 to 23 September production averaged 230 bbls/d of fluid at a choked-back rate comprising an average watercut of 78% (51 bopd) and a gas rate of 130 mcf/d (22 boepd)."
It says clearly 78% watercut
230bbls/day liquids
78% of these produced liquids is water or 179bbls
The rest is oil or 51bbls
179bbls water + 51bbls oil = 230bbls of liquids
If this was the other way around the watercut figure would be stated at 22%
Watercut
"The ratio of water produced compared to the volume of total liquids produced"
All there in black and white
You are welcome
Can anybody moneyterise the gas from 16az? They are saying the equivalent of 80 barrels of oil per day, what does this net financially?
Bigbench .. i agree this is totally oversold ... lets hope we get good news in the coming days.
So how I should have worded my original post was the 6 day average was the best they could publish " at that time"
News of how things have progressed at 16 since that ops update is what we are all waiting on now. I don't suppose they will be rushing out flow results on 38 until it has stabilised though!
Rocklawn id say its because its been well oversold here and its back to a bargain price which savvy buyers are hoovering up. Any News on 16az being cleaned up and improved figures will get this back to the 6-8 range in a jiffy.
Yes good point, it could by the same logic be presumed that if a short sample of the most recent figures were the best they could use then it may have been increasing or they had optimised it?
Simon T - With regard to your statement:
" If using 2 weeks, a month or 2 months would have given them an higher average to publish then they would have done so! So with some certainty we can say that the longer term average is below 51 Bopd!"
If your above statement is correct that would mean that at the time of the RNS the flow rate of oil had stabilised or was increasing!!
Average 51 bopd was between 17th and 23rd Sept - RNS was on the 25th Sept.
Produced water is being trucked with the oil to the nearby storage facility at Sartichala, which is owned by the Georgian Oil and Gas Corporation (GOGC), the Georgian national oil company. The storage leasing agreement Block has with GOGC provides for the disposal of the produced water into a State approved injection well.
apart from stating they have access to 90,000 barrels of storage - there isn't much other detail on this facility -so we could assume that the cost of the agreement has been paid and ongoing costs are trucking and processing.
*production
They said that problem resumed on 11/7 what we don't know is how much oil was produced before that.
Between 11/7 and the late September update and any earlier production 9000bopd was produced so impossible to give an average bopd figure.
We need an update on the water reduction and latest drill.
Mostly buys today .... any reason for this ??
Part of the problem (and possibly a reason for some shut-in time ) is how much the water costs to transport and store relative to the revenue from the oil - a balancing act to keep the end profit figures still positive
No worries, easy mistake!
The worrying thing about that RNS is that it was a doom and gloom fessing up RNS that the company didn't want to have to release! So using a production sample of only 6 days which quoted 51 Bopd must have been the very highest sample they could muster. If using 2 weeks, a month or 2 months would have given them an higher average to publish then they would have done so! So with some certainty we can say that the longer term average is below 51 Bopd!
16az is still being choked whilst the intervention work is on hand to reduce the water intake. This is sensible as its doesn't further compromise well integrity. So there's a fair chance the 51 barrels will increase. They haven't filled it in so they must favour the odds.
no but i did read it as 51bpd of water next to the 78% cut - just gone back to the rns and seen they have put bopd and not bpd, right after the water cut percentage - my mistake - apologies. haven't read the rns since reading it first time!
having said that, this is a strong water driver well and strong water drivers can have very high percentage cuts. It was indicated in the cpr that it was likely to be a strong water driver.
From 17 to 23 September production averaged a choked-back rate of 230 bbls/d of liquid at an average water cut of 78%.
Did you skip school?
WR-16aZ production
The well continues to flow strongly, producing a combination of oil, water and gas. From 17 to 23 September production averaged 230 bbls/d of fluid at a choked-back rate comprising an average watercut of 78% (51 bopd) and a gas rate of 130 mcf/d (22 boepd).
230 barres, minus 51 water, minus 22beopd gas leave 157 barrels of oil - plus 27 bopd from norio/sats gives us 184 bopd production without gas. Breakeven at the company level is 100bopd.
The cash pile is allocated to the drilling programme - you expect it to be eaten into.
FFS SIMON - the 51 barrels is water - it is in the rns.
Paul did a great job selling well 16az to the market, got to hand it to him. I know where my x went on my vote.
3-4p is about fair value now. High risk and high reward.
MP
with 25 and 51 barrels they are not breaking even Sea7, you know full well the gas is not being monetised, or did I miss that RNS?! And they will have eaten into that £11m quite a bit over the past 4 months! However at this market cap the valuation is becoming realistic but it still could go either way, only sustainable flow figures will make a difference here now and they are a way off yet!
The de-rampers have been at this for months helped by the silence from Block.
The update is due anytime and this SP could look very cheap.
All the best to long term holders.
The company, as at 30th June had £11m of working capital. The current cap is £15m -
The company covers its costs at 100bopd.
with about 25 bopd from norio and satskeni and the last reported average of 157 bopd from 16az, (230bbls of fluid at a choked back rate - of 51 barrels of water, 22 equivalent barrels gas and the rest oil), we are currently covering costs with a minimal bit of profit.
Drilling underway at 38, so now we wait.
Needless to say the doom mongers and pessimists are leaping on the mistakes made, however, we are where we are and at this price, it is a buy.
I have added today at 3.87p.